134
FXUS64 KLCH 011125
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
525 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front
  and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through
  Monday night. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Monday into Monday night.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold
  temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible down to the
  I-10 corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high
  rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for
  locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The rest of tonight will be cold and breezy as the cold front
from yesterday remains offshore. Aloft a strong jet at 250 mb will
keep us in a generally unstable pattern with overcast skies and
light rain.

Aloft an upper level trough will move across the Rockies and will
pull more Gulf moisture into our area. PWAT values will rise into
the 90th percentile with high RH content in the low and mid
levels. If this sounds similar to the rain event on Saturday you
would be right! This is basically a repeat with the complication
of that a surface low is expected to form along the coast due to
difluence from an upper-level jet. With the additional convergence
from the stalled cold front we can expect more widespread heavy
rain Monday through Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be
between 1 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts. We do have a
Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Monday.

A second cold front will move across the region late Monday night
and should be offshore by Tuesday morning. Behind the front more
cold dry air will cause our temperatures to plummet. By Tuesday
night lows will be below freezing north of I-10 with lows in the
mid 30s down to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

By the middle of the week post frontal high pressure will bring
clear skies and a break from the active weather. But that break
will be short lived as a the next low pressure system will be
moving off the Rockies. This system will pull warm moist Gulf air
north, driving up PWATs and RH levels setting us up for more heavy
rain. WPC has placed us under a Marginal ERO on Thursday. The rain
event on Thursday and Friday still has a lot of questions but
the main threat looks to be heavy rain.

Temperatures through the end of the week will be near normal with
highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Widespread rain is anticipated today. This will produce low
ceilings and vis through late this evening. Rain will exit
tonight, however IFR ceilings will continue through the end of the
period. NE winds will back north tonight and become gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of our coastal
waters as strong cold air advection behind the front continues.
There will be a short break from the wind Monday afternoon until
the next cold front moves offshore causing north winds around 20
knots and gusts of 25 knots. A second small craft advisory will be
in place late Monday night until Tuesday afternoon. Altimeter data has
lined up well with model guidance with wave heights between 5 and
6 feet in the outer waters and 2 to 4 feet in the inner coastal
waters.

With low tide on Tuesday we could need a low water advisory as
water levels will drop between -0.5 to -1.0 feet below MLLW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Multiple rounds of wetting rain has helped drop our KBDI values
from 700 to below 500 across the CWA. We will have a period of
dry weather on Tuesday before the next round of heavy rain on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  47  34  49  27 /  90  90   0   0
LCH  53  40  53  36 /  90  90   0   0
LFT  57  40  51  33 /  80 100  10   0
BPT  53  39  56  38 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05