619
FXUS64 KLCH 071754
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1154 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture moving in overnight will develop dense fog over the
region, thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from southeast
Texas into central and southwest Louisiana.

- A few scattered showers to isolated storms will be possible late
today as a cold front moves through. Rain should be swept out fully
by midnight Monday.

- Dry and cool conditions Monday will precede a beautiful Tuesday
  with temps in the 60s. Moderating airmass in the 60s and 70s
  are expected into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Robust warm air advection will make the rest of today feel almost
spring-like as dew points will rise into the mid-60s while
daytime highs will break into the 70s. This period of warm weather
will be thankfully short-lived as surface analysis shows a cold
front in central Texas moving our way. The front will reach
interior southeast Texas and central Louisiana this afternoon and
will reach the coast this evening. CAM models, especially the
HRRR, have started to highlight the possibility of a line of
thunderstorms moving through the region. Looking a bit deeper, we
still don`t have a favorable environment for severe weather, with
MUCAPE values maxing out below 500 J/kg. Shear and lapse rates are
more favorable, so if thunderstorms are able to develop, we could
see some "overachievers" and an isolated severe threat.

After the passage of the front tonight, skies will quickly clear
out as cold air advection will drop our lows tonight into the 40s
and on Monday night into the 30s, with freezing temperatures
unlikely but possible for central Louisiana (~25%). With the cold
air will come dry air, with PWATs dropping below half an inch.
Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Most of next week will remain dry, even though our upper-level
pattern will be active. PWAT values are expected to remain below 1
inch, with rain chances near zero going into next weekend. A
series of dry cold fronts will bring cold air advection that will
duel with the surface high that is causing warm air advection.
This will cause our temperatures to swing rapidly, with highs on
Thursday expected to be in the mid-70s, but by Saturday, highs
will be in the mid-to-low 50s. Low temperatures will similarly
swing, going from near 60 on Thursday down into the 30s over the
weekend. Overall, our temperature forecast looks like a roller
coaster with steep peaks and valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are slowly improving as the cloud
deck slowly rises across the region. An approaching cold front
will bring isolated thunderstorms and patchy showers but
confidence in widespread impacts is low. Behind the front
conditions will be VFR with a north winds around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Dense fog lasted longer this morning than expected, but an
approaching cold front will remove that threat tonight. The front
may cause a few scattered showers, but the main impact will be an
increase in winds, with offshore winds going above 20 knots after
midnight tonight with a decent chance (40%) for sustained winds to
be above 30 knots but a very high probability (>90%) for gusts
over 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is already in place starting
at 00Z this evening, but the timing may be moved up if the front
is quicker than expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

High pressure will bring warm, moist air north tonight and Sunday.
On Monday, 20 ft winds will be from the north around 10 to 15 mph,
with minimum RH values in the 50s. But with the recent widespread
rain, fire weather concerns are minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  55  32  59 /  40   0   0   0
LCH  45  59  36  60 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  46  56  36  60 /  70   0   0   0
BPT  44  60  39  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ450-452.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14