Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
047 FXUS64 KLCH 241754 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1154 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front will move across the forecast area today bringing a warm and moist Gulf air inland. - Potential for strong to some severe storms this evening through tonight as an upper level disturbance works with a moist and unstable atmosphere. - A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing drier and seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Mid-morning surface analysis shows a warm front draped along the northern Gulf Coast back towards a cold front which is draped across central TX. Aloft, a shortwave is noted over the Central Plains, with W/SW flow overhead. This shortwave will progress eastward today into tonight, dragging the frontal system with it. The warm front should begin to lift northward across the CWA over the next few hours, while the cold front moves eastward across TX. This will bring about a messy weather pattern through roughly the next 24 hours, followed by cooler and pleasant weather through the later half of the week. Today, isolated shower activity, along with possibly a few isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon, will continue to stream north across the CWA until a stronger line of storms eventually makes its way into the forecast area tonight. This line should arrive in our SE TX counties around the 9PM hour, progressing east from there overnight. CAMs are fairly consistent in the line holding together until around 3/4AM when increasing convective inhibition should allow for a good majority of ongoing convection to slowly die out thereafter through sunrise. SPC has highlighted our counties/parishes along and north of I-190 in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with the remainder of the CWA to the coast included in the Marginal Risk. All modes of severe weather area possible, with the highest risk being damaging winds and large hail. In addition, WPC has outlined all of SE TX as well as parts of west LA in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding. While convection will largely taper off prior to sunrise, at least isolated/scattered shower activity will linger over central LA tomorrow morning, gradually tapering off through the afternoon as dry air slowly filters into the forecast area. SPC is carrying a Marginal severe risk for eastern parts of our area tomorrow however, this risk looks minimal at best. By tomorrow night the front will have fully cleared the forecast area, with a cooler and drier airmass filtering in in its wake overnight and throughout Wednesday. By Wednesday evening PWATs are forecasted to be near or below the 10th percentile (0.37"), allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s for Thanksgiving morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The post-frontal dry and cool airmass will linger through the end of the work week as post-frontal surface high pressure dominates the MS River Valley and SE US, bringing seasonal daytime highs and cool morning lows along with no precip. Unfortunately by the weekend moisture returns in earnest as a west to southwest flow redevelops aloft and surface winds turn back to the E/SE. A surge of moisture will advect northward from south TX/the southern Gulf through the weekend, with PWATs increasing above the 90th percentile by Sun afternoon. As a result elevated rain chances return by Sat afternoon and persist through Sun and Mon as well. This convection will likely be fairly stratiform in nature, as no surface fronts are expected to be nearby at least initially. Fortunately, increasing rain chances/cloud cover should hold temps in check through the weekend, so while it will be a bit muggy highs should only be slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Isolated shower activity will continue to stream north across the area this afternoon, occasionally passing over the TAF sites particularly BPT/LCH. In addition, breezy E/SE winds with occasional gusts and a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs are expected through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. Tonight, a squall line will move across the area from the west, exiting the Acadiana terminals by sunrise. Attempted to time this line out with tempo groups. After the front, broken VFR CIGs and and W/NW winds along with a few lingering showers across Acadiana can be expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Breezy southerly flow along with occasional shower activity will continue through this evening. Tonight, a line of storms will move through followed by a wind shift to the W. Winds remain light and westerly through tomorrow before turning NW to NW tomorrow night and increasing as high pressure builds across the southeastern US and tightens the pressure gradient overhead. Strong north winds with 20-30 kt gusts will then prevail through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Light shower activity and breezy south winds will continue through this afternoon. A frontal passage overnight will shift winds to the W/NW tomorrow and eventually to the north by Wednesday, slowly advecting in a drier airmass. By Wednesday drier air will have arrived allowing minRH values to fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s Wed afternoon and into the mid 20s to low 30s Thurs and Fri. Moisture returns quickly by the end of the week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 78 50 65 / 80 40 10 0 LCH 67 80 54 69 / 50 40 10 0 LFT 67 81 55 69 / 50 60 10 0 BPT 66 82 54 70 / 60 30 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17