Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
446 FXUS64 KLCH 011159 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 659 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing clouds and a few showers or thunderstorms expected this afternoon ahead of a weak upper level trough and associated cold front that will move through the area this evening. - Clear and dry conditions return Sunday with mild afternoons and cool nights through Tuesday. - Wednesday through the end of the week, a warming trend will take place as onshore flow becomes established once again. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Mild temperatures with increasing cloud cover and a few afternoon showers are on tap today. After reaching toward the low 70`s, a shortwave trough will dig into the western Gulf, leading isolated to scattered showers. A rumble of thunder is possible, however, guidance has been fairly consistent at limiting these convective showers toward the coast where warmer sfc dewpoints and temperatures are located. Additionally, low level 925mb flow remains weak with easterly components suggest even the mixed layer environment won`t be very supportive of a wetting rainfall(greater than 0.25 inch). Best footprint for much of this activity is expected to be west of the I-49 corridor and centered over lower SETX. Our colleagues at the Storm Prediction Center do outline Jefferson Co, Tx in a Marginal risk for severe weather, however, will note this is highly conditional in a mixed layer environment. Offshore, showers will have a better chance developing into thunderstorms over the unseasonably warm Gulf waters. Following the front, winds will pickup out of the north. Not expecting wind advisory conditions, however, could see a few hours with breezes strong enough to knock loose some holiday decorations. Lows will drop to the 40`s areawide with skies clearing. Cooler conditions expected Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60`s for most. Probably some of the coldest air this Fall will be observed Sunday night with lows in the mid 30`s across CenLA. It`ll be a chilly Monday morning, however, the kids may not come home with their jackets as highs Monday warm back up into the upper 60`s / low 70`s. In other words, the afternoon will be a fair weather, but the kids might just call it six SEVEN. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Tuesday morning will also offer chilly conditions, however, most backyards should stay above 40F. High pressure overhead is expected to shift east over the SECONUS yielding veering winds, becoming onshore by the evening. A warming trend will take place as weak quasi-zonal upper level flow takes hold. Meanwhile, the subtropical Jet dips into the central Gulf and the northern Jet lifts into the upper 48 increasing subsidence aloft, locally. Thursday temperatures climb toward the low 80`s for most with onshore winds remaining through the end of the work week. It is worth noting, no rain is in the extended forecast indicating drought conditions will likely intensify slightly over the next 7 days. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Slightly elevated southeast winds will increase this mornign ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind shift will occur in afternoon hours with showers passing through at this time. Winds will become north to north-northeasterly and will diminish overnight. Cooler and drier air will wash out any remaining showers after 04Z. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 42 66 36 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 72 48 70 44 / 30 20 0 0 LFT 72 48 68 41 / 10 10 0 0 BPT 73 48 70 45 / 40 20 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...11