967
FXUS64 KLCH 281736
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1136 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching
  cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Moisture lingers post-frontal passage while temperatures plummet
  due to strong cold air advection

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
  are expected Saturday through Tuesday with this system, and a
  Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place both Saturday
  and Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Another pleasant fall morning is ongoing across the forecast area
with temperatures in the 50s area-wide. Very little of note for this
afternoon, as temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 60s
beneath sunny skies. Surface high pressure centered near the Ark-La-
Miss region this morning will gradually slide eastward this
afternoon/tonight, allowing surface winds to turn SE by tomorrow
morning. At the same time, a potent low pressure system dives out of
the Rockies and across the Central Plains. By sunrise tomorrow low
pressure should be over Kansas/Oklahoma with a warm front extending
south towards the NW Gulf Coast. This front will lift NEwrd across
the forecast area tomorrow, which in combination with strengthening
onshore flow will bring a surge of moisture into the forecast area.
Dewpoints are progged to increase from the mid 30s/upper 40s at
sunrise to the upper 50s/mid 60s by the late afternoon hours, while
PWATs increase from near average to near the 75th to 90th percentile
through roughly the same time period.

Initially, shower activity will be fairly isolated to scattered
throughout the daytime hours tomorrow, as the forecast area becomes
situated in the warm sector between a warm front to our north/east
and a cold front back to the west. Tomorrow the best chance for
daytime convection is expected to be across interior SE TX and
CENLA, with very isolated chances elsewhere. Moving into tomorrow
night things begin to ramp up as the cold front dives across the Ark-
La-Tex and into the forecast area. A Marginal Risk for both
Excessive Rainfall and severe weather will accompany this frontally
passage for the entire forecast area excluding lower Acadiana. These
strongest storms will likely move into SE TX post-sunset but prior
to midnight, spreading SE from there overnight into Sunday morning.

By 12Z Sunday the cold front will likely be in the lower Acadiana
region, exiting to the east through the morning hours. This will
allow rain chances to taper down through Sunday morning however, we
won`t completely dry out post-frontal passage as moisture lingers
thanks to a persistent zonal flow aloft. This will bring sort of a
mixed bag of conditions on Sunday, as CAA ramps up but moisture
lingers. Highs will only warm into the mid/upper 50s across our
northern zones, while along and south of I-10 temps should reach
into the low to mid 60s. Area-wide overcast skies and isolated to
scattered showers will persist as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The start of the work week brings some rather unpleasant weather as
we get a lovely combination of unseasonably cool temperatures and
another surge of moisture from the south. High temperatures will
only reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s for majority of the
forecast area on Monday, amid a persistent overcast cloud deck. In
addition, rain chances again ramp up considerably as an upper level
shortwave diving across the Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex pulls
moisture inland, with PWATs increasing well above the 90th
percentile by Mon afternoon. WPC has outlined the majority of the
forecast area (excluding interior SE TX) in a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Monday as a result. Rain chances should peak
through the afternoon into the overnight hours, tapering off west to
east as we head into Tuesday.

Finally by Tuesday morning dry air arrives! Lingering convection
will taper down quickly post sunrise as an area of surface high
pressure builds into the region. This will bring about a period of
dry and cool weather through Wed, with highs in the upper 50s/mid
50s on Tues and mid 50s/low 60s on Wed. In addition, Tues night/Wed
morning will bring the coldest temperatures of the forecast period,
with widespread freezing temps expected north of I-190.
Unfortunately, another round of moisture and increasing rain chances
arrives by late Wed/early Thurs, with at least modest rain chances
lingering through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

TAFs are mainly a wind forecast through the next 24 hours, as VFR
conditions prevail. Breezy east winds today with occasional gusts
will relax slightly with sunset, remaining around 5-10 kts
overnight. Tomorrow, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten
overhead as winds shift SE and become strong and gusty around the
end of the TAF period. A few scattered showers will be possible
near AEX tomorrow morning as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Breezy winds with frequent gusts along with seas around 3-7ft will
continue through the weekend into early next week. Easterly winds
will shift SE tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will pass
through Sat night/Sun morning. Winds turn N to NE behind the front
and remain out of the north through Tuesday. A SCA is current in
affect for the outer coastal waters through 00Z followed by an SCA
for all zones through 00Z tomorrow. Thereafter winds/seas may dip
below SCA criteria for a bit tomorrow night before increasing
again Sunday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Dry conditions prevail today, with moisture returning tonight
through tomorrow ahead of strong cold front that will arrive
tomorrow night. Tomorrow pre-frontal passage breezy SE winds will
allow dewpoints to increase into the mid 50s to low 60s through
the afternoon. Winds shift to the north/northeast Sunday morning
post-frontal passage and remain somewhat breezy and out of the
north through early next week. However, even with offshore flow
moisture will linger post-front with frequent shower activity
expected Sun through early Tues.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  41  68  43  55 /  30  50  90  40
LCH  48  73  51  61 /  10  40  80  50
LFT  44  72  53  60 /   0  20  70  60
BPT  54  75  51  61 /  20  40  80  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM CST Saturday
     for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST Saturday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17