440
FXUS64 KLCH 190523
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch which includes most of southwest Louisiana
  is in effect through Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will remain possible
  through Saturday.

- Heat returns to the region in the middle of next week with highs
  in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Tonight and Saturday will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms before a building ridge settles overhead and starts
to limit convection.

With the remnants of the tropical low now well to our north,
forcing across the region will be much weaker. With a more stable
pattern, the extent of the convection will be limited. Still, PWAT
values remain above 2 inches, and isolated heavy rain isnt out
of the realm of possibility. But we will be dropping the flash
flood watch earlier than originally planned with the watch
expiring at 12Z to cover any nocturnal flare ups. After sunrise
the threat of widespread flash flooding will have passed.

Aloft, a building ridge will be the main weather feature through
the weekend and into the start of next week. This ridge will limit
convection and cause our temperatures to rise. This pattern will
extend through the rest of the week.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to impact the region with highs
reaching the mid-90s along the coast and the upper 90s in central
Louisiana and the interior portions of southeast Texas. There is
a chance we could see temperatures break into the triple digits,
especially in the inland areas. Heat index values will get close
to the heat advisory criteria of 105. Even if we dont meet the
requirements, heat safety precautions should be taken, including
taking breaks from the heat and drinking plenty of water.

Near the end of the week, rain chances will rise as another surge
of tropical moisture moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions will continue for most of the night but isolated
showers and thunderstorms are a concern during the early morning
hours. Near convection conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR. Winds
will be light and generally from the south-southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Current observations show seas around 2 to 4 feet with winds
around 10 knots from the southwest. The remnants of the tropical
disturbance have moved onshore, and impacts to our coastal waters
will be limited to thunderstorms. Storms can produce locally
higher winds and seas. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease on
Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Widespread heavy rain has soaked most of the region. Patchy
showers will continue on Saturday before a dry spell starts on
Sunday. Minimum RH values will remain high, around 40 to 60%. Due
to high pressure overhead, winds will be light for the next
several days, less than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  95  72 /  50  10  10   0
LCH  91  78  92  76 /  50  10  20   0
LFT  90  77  91  76 /  60  10  30   0
BPT  91  77  92  75 /  50  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ030>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14