118
FXUS64 KLCH 302316
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
516 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front
  and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through
  Monday night. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Monday into Monday night.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold
  temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible down to the
  I-10 corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high
  rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for
  locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold frontal system has moved off into the coastal waters with
brisk north winds bringing much colder temperatures into the
forecast area. Active southern jet remains overhead keeping a
moist southwest flow aloft. Therefore, colds with occasional light
rain and sprinkles will persist for the remainder of today into
tonight.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will move eastward and
across the Plains on Monday and through the forecast area on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, old cold frontal boundary will remain stalled
over the coastal waters. Increasing southerly winds above the
surface will bring back highly anomalous Gulf moisture over the
cold surface dome allowing clouds to hang around with an increase
in shower activity by Monday afternoon.

Upper level divergence provided by a Jet streak in the southern
stream will induce a coastal low to develop over the northwest
Gulf. The low will travel eastward along the stalled boundary over
the coastal waters. Extra low level convergence and forcing from
the surface low and divergence aloft, will help focus shower
activity through Monday night, ending early Tuesday as the upper
level trough moves the low off to the east and ends to isentropic
lift.

PWAT values by Monday afternoon are expected to be at or above 1.5
inches, which is at the 90th percentile of climo. Mean layer
relative humidity values between 100H-50H is progged to be over 90
percent. Therefore, shower activity will have the chance to be
highly efficient precipitation producers. Instability is expected
to stay offshore, this will keep any strong thunderstorms over
land, although some elevated convection can not be ruled out that
may increase rainfall rates.

At this time, HREF probs show over a 70 percent chance of 1 inch
of rain, 20 to 30 percent of over 2 inches, and 10 to 20 percent
of over 3 inches of rainfall, with the higher amounts and
probabilities from the highway 190 corridor to the south. With
that, WPC has outlined those locations in a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for Monday into Monday night.

Drier air moving in behind the upper level trough will help clear
skies during Tuesday that will set the stage for a cold Tuesday
night as the surface high settles over the forecast area. At or
below freezing temperatures will be possible down toward the I-10
corridor on Tuesday night.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Surface high pressure will be sliding off to the east as the
period begins helping to moderate temperatures after a cold
Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, the next storm system will be moving out of the
southern Rockies and across the Plains. Southerly flow ahead of
this system will bring more copious amounts of Gulf moisture into
the forecast area with PWAT values over 1.5 inches, which is over
the 90th percentile of climo, and near 1.75 inches, getting close
to max values. Jet streak around the storm system is expected to
induce another coastal low over the northwest Gulf, that again
looks to track just offshore through early Friday. Low level
convergence, upper level divergence, and a very moist atmosphere
will provide wide spread shower activity during Thursday into
early Friday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

The upper level trough will move east of the forecast area during
Friday allowing for a deeper northwest flow to develop ending the
rain and bringing a cool and dry start to the weekend.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The cold front is now offshore and with it most of the convection
in the region. Low CIGs will keep our terminals at IFR for the
rest of the TAF period. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

A coastal low will develop Monday brining another round of heavy
rain and low CIGs that will last through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Brisk northerly winds will continue over the coastal waters behind
a cold front into Monday. A coastal low will move across the
northwest Gulf on Monday into Monday night and help to continue
elevated offshore flow along with widespread shower activity.
Winds will decrease slightly by mid-week and become briefly
onshore as high pressure moves off to the east. Another coastal
low and cold front will bring elevated offshore flow along with
widespread shower activity by the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Northerly winds along with much needed rainfall will continue
through Monday night. A brief dry period will occur on Tuesday
into Wednesday as high pressure settles in. Near freezing
temperatures can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
down to the I-10 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  37  48  32  49 /  40  90  90   0
LCH  43  54  39  54 /  40  90  80   0
LFT  46  59  39  52 /  30  90  90  10
BPT  43  54  38  56 /  40  90  60   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14