550
FXUS64 KLCH 021801
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1201 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions today with skies continuing to clear.

- A light freeze is expected roughly north of the I-10 corridor
  tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Another coastal low developing and moving up the Texas gulf
  coast will increase rain chances Wednesday afternoon. An
  approaching cold front will keep precipitation chances elevated
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The cold front has fully moved through the area and continues
progressing into the Gulf as a cool high pressure system moves in
from Texas. Northerly winds are elevated at the moment; however,
they will begin to relax as the high pressure approaches. MaxTs
will be limited to the 40s and 50s today due to the OVC deck we
have had most of the day, with gradual clearing expected later
this evening into tomorrow morning. This will allow for
radiational cooling, with MinTs early tomorrow morning falling
into the upper 20s to 30s.

The high pressure will be over the Ozarks early tomorrow morning,
then over the western Appalachians by the afternoon. This will
allow for the return of southerly flow in our region, which, along
with a disturbance taking shape along the Texas coast, will allow
showers to return to the forecast late tomorrow night. Shower
activity will continue thanks to an upper disturbance moving into
the region. As it moves through, we will not see much clearing, as
it will meander along the coast with a plume of moisture remaining
overhead.

Heavy showers will be likely starting late tomorrow and continuing
through most of the day Thursday. This could lead to ponding and
minor street flooding, hence the Marginal Risk ERO over the
southeastern two / thirds of the CWA. With the deeper plume of
moisture shifting east on Friday, showers will become scattered to
isolated, with parts of the Atchafalaya Basin likely seeing
another day of minor flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Scattered showers will taper during the day on Saturday, then an
upper trough will push a front through the region Sunday into
Monday. A high pressure will sink into the Southern Plains on
Monday, with slightly cooler and drier air moving in. This will
help clear out rain and cloud cover heading into early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings persist, but they will gradually thin later this
afternoon into evening, with VFR conditions anticipated tonight.
Gusty north winds will become light after sunset. High pressure
will approach and then move past the region, with winds becoming
easterly and eventually southerly by the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Gusty offshore flow and seas of 3-5 feet will continue in the wake
of a frontal passage through the morning before weakening this
afternoon as high pressure begins to build across the region.
Winds will turn back onshore Wednesday afternoon ahead of a
developing coastal low that will bring widespread precipitation
across the coastal waters Wednesday through late Friday. Strong
offshore winds and increasing seas are expected to develop
Thursday in the vicinity of the center of the coastal low before
abating late Friday as the low pushes off to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Breezy north winds will continue through the late afternoon
before diminishing later this evening as high pressure builds
into the region. Precipitation chances increase significantly
Wednesday evening and remain elevated through Friday night as a
coastal low and frontal boundary interact near the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  58  43  51 /   0   0  90  80
LCH  35  64  52  59 /   0  10  90  90
LFT  34  62  51  59 /   0   0  90  90
BPT  39  65  53  62 /   0  10 100  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-
     432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87