358
FXUS64 KLCH 261731
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1131 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the
  week.

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching
  cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the
  beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Surface analysis shows a pair of cold fronts draped across the
east/southeast US, with the first one well offshore and the second
weaker one currently overhead, while strong high pressure building
over the Plains behind these fronts. Aloft, deep low pressure is
near the Great Lakes with the trough axis nearly overhead. Scattered
high clouds continue to stream across the forecast area this morning
along the base of this trough, beneath a cooler and drier airmass at
the surface. Upper level low pressure will eject east towards New
England this afternoon/tonight, allowing a dry NW flow to develop
aloft effectively clearing out the remaining cloud cover. At the
surface, high pressure in the Plains will build south this
afternoon/tonight, allowing breezy north winds to gradually relax.
Surface high pressure will then remain overhead through Friday,
allowing seasonal temps and dry weather to prevail. Temperature
wise, we will warm up into the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon,
before falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight. Tomorrow and
Friday, highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Friday
morning lows will dip into the low/mid 30s across CENLA and into the
upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere, thanks to clear skies and light winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Enjoy the dry weather while its here, as moisture return ramps up
quickly as we head into the weekend. Surface winds turn SE by Sat
morning and begin to ramp up as the forecast area becomes situated
between strong high pressure over the Carolinas and an area of
strong low pressure/a cold front near west OK, tightening the
pressure gradient overhead. As a result, moisture begins to surge
into the region from the SW, with PWATs increase from near the daily
mean (~0.82") early Sat morning to above the 90th percentile
(~1.48") by Sat evening. This will of course bring increasing rain
chances, first across SE TX by Saturday morning and then spreading
east from there throughout the daytime hours. Saturday evening
through Sunday morning rain chances ramp up further as the
aforementioned cold front in the Plains rushes south, crossing the
forecast area Sunday morning. WPC has outlined our forecast area in
a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall with this convection, as there
will be an prolonged period of rainfall and plenty of moisture to
work with.


While the front moves through Sunday morning, models continue to
diverge on if we will dry out at all post frontal passage. The Euro
still wants to bring a quick period of dry weather on Sunday with a
return of moisture on Monday, while the GFS keeps overrunning
moisture in place post-frontal passage throughout Monday. NBM
continues to lean towards the wetter solution, keeping at least 30-
50 POPs across the forecast area Sun afternoon/night. What`s clear
is that moisture will be elevated Mon-Tues with elevated rain
chances lingering throughout this period. In addition, this front
will definitely bring us some cooler air, with highs throughout
early next week ranging from the low/mid 50s to low 60s at best.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Gusty north winds will continue through sunset this evening,
followed by N/NE winds around 5-10 kts through the remainder of
the period. A few high clouds will continue to stream along the
coast through the afternoon, clearing out by tonight. VFR
conditions prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Strong gusty north winds will continue into tomorrow morning as
surface high pressure slowly builds into the area from the north.
Winds turn more NE and relax slightly by tomorrow afternoon, with
the SCA dropping to a exercise caution at 18Z tomorrow. Tomorrow
night into Friday winds slowly turn more E and increase once
again, with another prolonged period of SCA conditions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Breezy north winds will continue to bring a drier airmass into the
region today with dewpoints expected to fall into the upper
30s/low 40s by this evening. Very dry air then lingers through
Friday with minRH values in the mid 20s to upper 30s both
afternoons. Moisture then returns rather quickly late Fri into
early Sat, with a prolonged period of cool but moist conditions
expected Sat into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  36  60  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  42  63  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  40  63  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  44  65  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17