Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
630 FXUS64 KLCH 112312 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 512 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild temperatures and higher dewpoints are expected to filter inland across the forecast area through Saturday with light scattered chances of rain between Friday night and early Sunday morning. - A strong cold front will advect very cold weather across the area Sunday night with sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills in the teens. - Milder weather slowly builds back into the forecast area through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 There are several parts to this forecast that suggest the pattern will become a little more active over the next several days. High pressure is forecast to migrate and center over Georgia tomorrow morning. In the meanwhile, winds will veer southerly this evening and overnight as a warm front lifts into CenLA. A weak upper-level disturbance will move across the northern Gulf. Patchy fog is likely to develop overnight into the early morning as warm, moist air filters over cooler surfaces inland. PoPs are relatively negligible given a very stable surface to 850mb layer. However, I do believe cloud coverage will increase, with highs climbing to the lower 70`s. By Saturday, the weak upper-level disturbance will remain south of the forecast area, slowly trekking east across the Gulf waters, resulting in another day of unseasonably mild temperatures. A very robust shortwave trough extending over the Great Lakes and New England will amplify east of the Mississippi. The southern stream wave over the Gulf will begin to phase with the downstream pattern Saturday night. Guidance has trended up potential for light rainfall amounts, generally under 0.10 inches. The northern jet surges very cold Canadian air south through the Plains as strong high pressure builds quickly over the Heartland. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Overnight into Sunday morning, any remaining shower activity will push offshore with the rapidly descending cold front. Highs Sunday will occur before sunrise, with temperatures dropping through the afternoon while winds gust out of the north-northeast. Marine headlines with respect to winds and seas are almost certain Sunday. Inland, winds and gusts don`t appear to reach any advisory criteria. However, this is an element of the forecast to keep close tabs on. By Sunday night, temperatures are forecast to fall well below freezing across the entire forecast area, with the possible exception of the immediate coastline. Although winds will start to subside through the overnight hours into Monday, breezes of 5-10 MPH are likely to drop apparent temperatures (windchills) down to the teens. People, plants, pipes, and pets are all susceptible to this hazardously cold weather. Barring any major changes, I expect a cold weather advisory to be in place for the better part, if not the entire forecast area Sunday night. After a chilly start, highs will climb to the upper 40`s into the early afternoon. Because this pattern accelerates east Monday, I don`t expect conditions to be quite as cold Monday night, though portions of CenLA will likely fall just below freezing as winds veer east. Hereafter, a warm up will take hold through the middle of next week as subtropical ridging buckles north across the Mississippi Valley, with onshore winds remaining through the extended forecast. Needless to say, conditions will begin to trend well above normal for this portion of the extended forecast and likely beyond, as indicated by the recent CPC 8-14 outlook illustrating a 90-100% chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated through the evening, however fog will devlop late tonight and linger through sunrise. This may produce periods of lower vis during the early morning hours of Friday. MVFR ceilings will also be possible Friday morning into the afternoon as the CU field develops, but mainly at KBPT and KLCH. && .MARINE... Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Winds offshore will remain out of the south with varying SE components through early Saturday afternoon. Occasional showers are possible Friday and Saturday, but coverage appears limited. Overnight Saturday into Sunday a very robust cold front will push offshore. Gale Watch may necessary for this period, but at the very least Small Craft Advisory criteria will be well exceeded including lakes and bays. Winds will slowly ease into Monday before veering east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Winds will become onshore this evening through early Saturday morning before with E-SE components on Saturday afternoon. Increasing RH will likely lead to areas of patchy fog Friday morning. Minimum RH values around 40-50% this afternoon will be increasing to 60% - 70% for Friday afternoon. With winds becoming variable and calming to under 3kts following humid onshore / ESE flow, chance of fog is at least 30% for Visibility dropping under 1 mi early Saturday AM. High pressure will build to our east and will pull more moist air north from the Gulf increasing rain chances this weekend. North Winds Sunday are forecast to increase behind the cold front with cold temperatures to follow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 42 72 52 70 / 0 10 10 30 LCH 50 75 57 73 / 0 20 10 20 LFT 48 74 57 73 / 0 20 10 20 BPT 52 75 57 73 / 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05