Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
384 FXUS64 KLCH 212332 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 532 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered precipitation chances remain the forecast today ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday. - Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Upper air analysis shows a deep low near the Four Corners region that has started to lift north. Over the Gulf Coast, winds aloft are mainly zonal, with slight ridging aloft, which will limit the amount of dynamic forcing available to thunderstorms. In addition, upper air soundings continue to show a subsidence inversion aloft but higher and less pronounced than the previous few days. With less of a cap and less dry air aloft, we wont stay completely dry this weekend as the cold front associated with the low pressure system will cause showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for southeast Texas. Ahead of the front, convergent wind at the surface will cause scattered showers across southwest Louisiana, while the line of showers wont pass through until midnight on Saturday. Behind the front, cooler air will filter in, but the main change will be in drier air, with dew points dropping from the 70s down into the 50s. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Even more unfortunate, high pressure remains centered off the Florida coast and will begin to push warm, moist air back into Louisiana on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The forecast for Thanksgiving week looks fairly active, as a second low-pressure system and cold front will impact the area. At this point, forecasting these frontal passages feels a bit like a bait and switch, as timing continues to move back and rainfall totals are reduced with each forecast cycle. As the front approaches, southern flow will increase with the pressure gradient, with temperatures reaching the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Dew points will also increase back into the 70s on the same days. The front should move through on Tuesday evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms. The WPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) as Precipitable Water (PWATs) will be above the 75th percentile, with model soundings showing a long, skinny CAPE profile. Area-wide, we are likely to see around 0.50 inches of rain, with some pockets of 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. While this wont be a drought buster, it will hopefully put a dent into some of our rainfall deficits. With this front, some of the AI models are hinting at a severe threat, but a conditional one at best with the current setup. Of course, if the low tracks farther north, as is typical during La Nina events, then rainfall totals will be lower, along with the overall chance for rain. After the passage of the front, cool, dry air will filter in, and by Thanksgiving Day, we will have pleasant weather with highs in the upper 60s and low dew points. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Light southwest winds will gradually shift west and then northwest through the TAF period as a weak front moves across the region. Ceilings, which are largely VFR at this time, will gradually fall overnight eventually becoming IFR and LIFR at all sites around midnight or shortly thereafter. Ceilings should then improve gradually through the mid-morning hours returning to VFR by the midday tomorrow. Weather wise, fog is expected to again develop tonight, with most sites falling to around 2-5SM for an extended period. However, periods of dense fog less than 1SM are possible at the south LA sites. In addition, the front will provide some support for light shower activity overnight through the morning. These showers should pose little to no issues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 79 49 73 / 20 10 0 0 LCH 67 81 56 76 / 30 20 0 0 LFT 67 81 56 76 / 20 20 0 0 BPT 67 81 56 76 / 30 20 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...17