Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
446 FXUS64 KLCH 172329 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 529 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy areas of fog are likely tonight into Tuesday morning, however, winds should remain up enough to limit dense fog potential. - Persistent weather pattern will continue through mid week with above normal temperatures and humidity. - Precipitation chances return Thursday ahead of a Pacific cold front that will reach the area late in the week. - Tuesday will be the "hottest" day of forecast period with highs in the low 80s. Not expecting to break high temp records. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Not much to talk on this morning. It`s warm and humid; more like a late spring day rather than mid to late fall. Much of the same will prevail thru late Wednesday, mild to warm overnights with patchy to dense fog and very warm days beneath high pressure influence. Within that broad overview, one can find some nuance. No Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for tonight. Overnight winds should remain somewhat elevated in response to a wave expected to move across the MS Valley this evening/tonight. This is owed to our proximity to the surface high ridging west from the eastern Gulf. Mixing winds should keep dense fog from settling in. By late Tuesday the wave will be gone and calm winds returning, ie, dense fog may return for Wednesday AM. The warmest temperatures will be seen Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s area wide. This is owed to a reestablishment of the sfc high and increasing heights. While we will be in the 10 to 15 F above climo normals range, not anticipating any crazy record breaking. An isolated climate site might tie the standing record for a short time (enough to count as a tie), but that should be it. Wednesday will see lower 80s as well, but with trof moving in from the west, cloud cover moving in overhead should limit highs once again, capping them closer to 80 than 85. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Once again we`re here trying to sort out how the longterm forecast plays out. Guidance just simply is not handling these west coast lows very well as they move inland and across the US. Currently, stj brings the first longterm wave into the southwest US. Increased upper flow on the northwest periphery of established ridge and southeast portion of the wave appears to result in a negative tilt as it whips across central TX from late Wed thru its passage late Friday. This multi-day influence will slowly erode the high and thus will result in gradual rainfall increases from early Thursday thru the weekend. An attendant cool front associated with this wave will move through over the weekend with highest PoPs and greatest rainfall threat on Friday. Forecast PWAT values on Friday range from 1.50 to 1.80(ish) inches, both of which are above the 90th percentile for this time of year. With any slow progression of the front there could be heavy downpours with rates that overwhelm ground absorption or runoff. Thus, a Marginal ERO (Level 1 of 4) has been issued by the Weather Prediction Center for Friday day and into Saturday morning. Considering how dry antecedent conditions are, coupled with low runoff catchments, flash flooding is not expected. Now is the time to consider leaf fall and how ground foliage may clog nearby drains. Cooler, near-seasonable temperatures will follow on Sunday and Monday. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions should prevail across all TAF sites through 0300UTC. Hereafter, ground BR will develop, albeit patchy. Fog likely to form after midnight with areas becoming patchy dense. Visibilities around 1/4mi are likely periodically through sunrise. Fog may form into low ceilings toward the dawn hours before south winds mix out during mid morning hours Tuesday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 60 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 65 82 66 82 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 63 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 66 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30