863
FXUS64 KLCH 151147
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
547 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog occurring early this morning and will be
  possible again tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Persistent weather pattern will continue through the weekend into
  early next week with above normal temperatures and humidity.

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday ahead of the next cold
  front that will move through the area late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface high pressure during the period will be centered off to the
east over the northeast Gulf. This will allow for low level flow off
of the Gulf bringing in warm and humid Gulf air. Meanwhile, a loft,
upper level ridging will be noted, and this should keep drier air in
the mid levels and helping to provide an atmospheric cap over the
region. All this will help maintain the unseasonably warm and humid
conditions with no chance for significant rainfall.

The main concern will be fog potential during the late night and
early morning hours as surface winds will be relatively light and
mostly clear skies will allow for surface air temperatures reach
dewpoints. Winds just above the surface may be strong enough to keep
widespread dense fog forming, however, there is enough probability
for at least patchy dense fog, especially in locations that have
residual smoke from earlier burnings, that the dense fog advisory
will continue.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Pacific energy will move across the Rockies during the middle to
latter part of next week with the upper level ridging over the
region breaking down. This will allow for a rather strong upper
level low and trough to push a Pacific cold front across the
forecast area. There is still some timing differences, however the
late Thursday into early Friday period at this time looks to be the
most active period.

Low level jet brings in copious amounts of Gulf moisture with PWAT
values on Thursday around 2 inches, which is over the 90th
percentile of climo and near the daily moving max, with mean layer
relative humidity values above 80 percent. Upper level trough also
takes a bit of a negative tilt as it reaches the region, and
therefore, some strong storms and heavy rainfall may be possible,
although still too early for any details.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Several sites in the area experiencing LIFR VIS thanks to dense
fog that has continued into this early morning hour. These
conditions shall persist for the next few hours before slowly
dissipating after sunrise. We will see conditions improve over the
mid morning timeframe, lasting until tonight, where yet another
round of dense fog will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into
the coastal waters through the weekend into early next week. This
will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas. Onshore flow will
increase somewhat by the middle part of next week as low pressure
forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant
shower activity will be Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in
place through the weekend into early next week. An upper level high
over the region will keep any significant rain chance out of the
forecast through early next week. Minimum afternoon relative
humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas of fog being patchy
dense, especially near locations with residual smoke will be
possible at night and during the early morning hours through the
weekend. The next chance for any significant rainfall will be during
the middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  79  61  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  79  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  81  61  83  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-
     044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87