Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240546
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm front will move across on Monday bringing a warm and
  moist Gulf air mass back into the area.

- Potential for strong to some severe storms Monday evening into
  Monday night as an upper level disturbance works with a moist
  and unstable atmosphere.

- A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing drier and
  seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure ridging down from the north bringing a slightly
cooler and drier day with most of the forecast area seeing sunny
skies.

Progressive pattern however will bring back changes on Monday.
High pressure will shift off to the east with an upper level
trough moving out of the southwest US. This will allow winds to
veer to a southerly direction and increase that will push a warm
front north across the forecast area during Monday, and with it a
moist and moderately unstable Gulf air mass.

Progs show PWAT at or above 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon, which
is over the 90th percentile, and mean layer relative humidity
values over 70 percent. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop with the daytime heating by afternoon.

The forcing from the upper level trough and ongoing convective
outflow boundary moving in from east Texas will allow a line of
showers and thunderstorms to reach the forecast area of southeast
Texas and west central Louisiana between 8 and 9 pm local.
Moderate instability is progged to hang around as this system
reaches the forecast area, to go along with good shear values and
favorable lapse rates. Therefore, the line of storms will have
some severe potential with damaging winds the main threat,
although any discrete broken features ahead of along the line will
have the best chance for rotation with tornadic potential.
Therefore, a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) has been outlined
northwest of a Beaumont to Alexandria line.

Also, with the highly anomalous moisture values, the stronger
storms will have the potential for high rain rates in a short
period of time with progs showing activity with rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches per hour and this will bring about some risk of
urban type flooding.

The line is expected to gradually weaken during the night as it
moves further east into southwest Louisiana and Acadiana.

A cold front will catch up to this activity on Tuesday afternoon
pushing the moisture off to the east and south ending rain
chances. Much cooler and drier conditions will then filter into
the forecast area.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure will then ridge down into the forecast area from the
Plains bringing a mix of modified Canadian and Pacific air that
will bring seasonably cool and dry conditions through
Thanksgiving.

Still some differences in the details so the forecast for next
weekend is of low confidence. However, it looks like it could be
rather active as southerly flow returns and robust southern jet is
noted overhead.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

BKN high clouds will continue to traverse the region this
morning. Light, variable winds early this morning will become
predominantly southerly by late morning as a warm front lifts
inland out of the gulf. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon as an upper level low begins to
interact with the increasing gulf moisture. Storms will increase
further late tonight into early Tuesday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front with ceilings falling to MVFR after sunset.

Jones

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  50  79  64 /   0   0  50  70
LCH  76  58  81  67 /   0   0  50  60
LFT  77  57  81  67 /   0   0  30  50
BPT  77  62  82  67 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...66