Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
480 FXUS64 KLCH 240602 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1202 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front will move across on Monday bringing a warm and moist Gulf air mass back into the area. - Potential for strong to some severe storms Monday evening into Monday night as an upper level disturbance works with a moist and unstable atmosphere. - A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing drier and seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1201 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Weak ridging continues overhead this morning although with significant high clouds streaming across the region on the westerly flow. These high clouds and dewpoint depressions of 3-5 degrees will prevent any fog formation this morning (although some intermittent visibility reducing smoke has been observed ivo the Beaumont airport). Surface high pressure will slide east of the area Monday lifting a warm front out of the gulf by late morning. A tropical airmass behind the front will lift dewpoints quickly from the mid 50s to near 70 during the afternoon. An upper level low moving across the southern plains will begin to interact with this moisture Monday afternoon into Monday night producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Convection will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong cold front moves through the region. Ensembles are depicting a decent severe weather environment setting up Monday night into early Tuesday with forecast CAPE between 1400-1600 J/KG and 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear. Discreet supercells/clusters will have the potential to develop ahead of the frontal boundary with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds all possible with any of these. SPC has highlighted much of Southeast Texas and parts of central Louisiana in a slight risk for severe storms and wouldn`t be surprised to see a tornado watch issued for these areas by late Monday afternoon into Monday night. The frontal boundary is expected to clear the area by early Tuesday afternoon with CAA developing Tuesday afternoon/evening dropping lows Wednesday morning into the mid 50s. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A second, dry boundary will push through the area Wednesday with stronger northerly winds developing in it`s wake advecting even cooler air into the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving with wake up temperatures Thursday morning ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure slides east of the region Friday turning winds back out of the southeast which will begin to moderate the air mass with lows climbing back into the 60s next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 BKN high clouds will continue to traverse the region this morning. Light, variable winds early this morning will become predominantly southerly by late morning as a warm front lifts inland out of the gulf. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as an upper level low begins to interact with the increasing gulf moisture. Storms will increase further late tonight into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front with ceilings falling to MVFR after sunset. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Winds will turn onshore and increase Monday as high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure develops over the Plains. Rain chances will increase Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon coming to an end as a cold front moves into the coastal waters. Winds will become offshore behind the front late Tuesday and increase Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A warm front will move across the region Monday turning winds back out of the south which will increase temperatures and moisture. Rain chances will increase this afternoon into tonight as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. A cold front is then expected on Tuesday ending rain chances and bringing cooler and drier conditions through Thanksgiving. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 64 78 51 / 50 70 50 10 LCH 81 67 80 55 / 50 60 50 10 LFT 81 67 81 56 / 30 50 70 20 BPT 82 67 81 55 / 40 50 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66