057
FXUS64 KLCH 150531
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible into early this morning and again early
  Sunday morning.

- Persistent weather pattern will continue through the weekend into
  early next week with above normal temperatures and humidity.

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday ahead of the next cold
  front that will move through the area late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Surface high pressure during the period will be centered off to the
east over the northeast Gulf. This will allow for low level flow off
of the Gulf bringing in warm and humid Gulf air. Meanwhile, a loft,
upper level ridging will be noted, and this should keep drier air in
the mid levels and helping to provide an atmospheric cap over the
region. All this will help maintain the unseasonably warm and humid
conditions with no chance for significant rainfall.

The main concern will be fog potential during the late night and
early morning hours as surface winds will be relatively light and
mostly clear skies will allow for surface air temperatures reach
dewpoints. Winds just above the surface may be strong enough to keep
widespread dense fog forming, however, there is enough probability
for at least patchy dense fog, especially in locations that have
residual smoke from earlier burnings, that the dense fog advisory
will continue.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Pacific energy will move across the Rockies during the middle to
latter part of next week with the upper level ridging over the
region breaking down. This will allow for a rather strong upper
level low and trough to push a Pacific cold front across the
forecast area. There is still some timing differences, however the
late Thursday into early Friday period at this time looks to be the
most active period.

Low level jet brings in copious amounts of Gulf moisture with PWAT
values on Thursday around 2 inches, which is over the 90th
percentile of climo and near the daily moving max, with mean layer
relative humidity values above 80 percent. Upper level trough also
takes a bit of a negative tilt as it reaches the region, and
therefore, some strong storms and heavy rainfall may be possible,
although still too early for any details.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Main issue overnight will again be the potential for fog. With
light winds and mainly clear skies, radiational cooling is
bringing air temperatures down to the dewpoint, and mix in some
residual smoke across Acadiana and the southwest Louisiana
marshes, IFR conditions will be possible at all Louisiana
terminals (KLCH has already down into the LIFR range) with MVFR
at KBPT into early Saturday morning.

With daytime heating, fog will mix out rather quickly after 15/14z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the day.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into
the coastal waters through the weekend into early next week. This
will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas. Onshore flow will
increase somewhat by the middle part of next week as low pressure
forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant
shower activity will be Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in
place through the weekend into early next week. An upper level high
over the region will keep any significant rain chance out of the
forecast through early next week. Minimum afternoon relative
humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas of fog being patchy
dense, especially near locations with residual smoke will be
possible at night and during the early morning hours through the
weekend. The next chance for any significant rainfall will be during
the middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  78  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  79  57  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  80  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07