251
FXUS64 KLCH 141648
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1048 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog possible late tonight into early Saturday
morning and again early Sunday morning.

- Persistent weather pattern will continue through the weekend with
above normal temperatures and humidity

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday ahead of the next cold
  front that will move through the area late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Little change to the overall forecast pattern expected
through this weekend as upper level ridging extending across much of
the western gulf will keep rain at bay and skies partly cloudy. At
the surface, high pressure over the northeastern gulf will maintain
light southerly to southeasterly flow over the next several days
which will keep both temperatures and humidity well above
climatological normals.

This low level moisture, combined with clear skies and light winds
will once again prove favorable for areas of dense fog development
late tonight into early Saturday morning. Guidance is in good
agreement on fog development tonight with ensemble probabilities
ranging from 50-80% over southwest and central Louisiana so felt
confident enough to issue a dense fog advisory from 1-8 AM Saturday
morning.

Any fog that develops will have the potential to mix with
smoke from prescribed and agricultural burning to create narrow
swaths of super fog early Saturday morning. Super fog is
particularly dangerous with visibilities falling to as low as 10
feet. Nightly fog development is expected to continue through the
weekend.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The overall pattern isn`t expected to change much
heading into early next week with much warmer than normal
temperatures expected to continue. The upper ridge will flatten out
allowing for more in the way of daytime cloud cover, but guidance
has backed off any real precipitation chances both Monday and
Tuesday. PoPs have even come in lower this cycle on Wednesday
although some afternoon showers are expected to begin developing
ahead of the next frontal boundary progged to push through the
region late next week. Guidance is waffling regarding the forward
speed and timing of this front so stuck with NBM`s broad brushing of
PoPs late in the week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Widespread patchy to dense fog has been observed at several sites
across the area, including at some of the TAF sites. This is most
notable for the southern and southeastern areas. Fog will persist
into the morning hours until they begin to burn off after
sunrise. Tomorrow more of the same can be expected with VFR
conditions holding until the next round of fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will
maintain light onshore winds and low seas through Sunday. Onshore
flow will increase somewhat early next week in response to areas of
low pressure moving across the southern plains. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday becoming more likely
Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warm, humid conditions are expected through early
next week with no appreciable rain chances. Areas of dense fog will
be possible each night followed by fair weather clouds and light
southerly winds. Smoke production early in the morning will have the
potential to create super fog through the weekend. Low end
precipitation chances return Wednesday with better precipitation
chances next Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  78  59  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  78  57  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  80  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for LAZ027>033-
     044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87