690
FXUS64 KLCH 020602
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions Tuesday with skies clearing by early
afternoon.

- A light freeze is expected roughly north of the I-10 corridor
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another coastal low developing and moving up the Texas gulf
  coast will increase rain chances Wednesday afternoon. An
  approaching cold front will keep precipitation chances elevated
  Thursday and Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front continues to push through parts of south
central Louisiana early this morning with trailing light stratiform
showers. This activity will end from west to east over the next
couple of hours. Gusty north winds have developed in the wake of the
front both inland and offshore. The strong cold air advection
through the early morning will push wind chill values into the mid
20s away from the immediate coastline between approximately 3 and 8
AM making for a biting start to the morning across the region. High
pressure will build into the area from the west through the day
allowing winds to abate and skies to clear by early afternoon. Good
radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s Wednesday morning.

The reprieve from the rain will be short lived, however, as an
inverted trof is expected to develop across south Texas Wednesday
morning before lifting up the Texas gulf coast Wednesday afternoon.
Precipitation chances will increase substantially by Wednesday
evening into Thursday. While the majority of this rain is expected
to be light to moderate, there will likely be some embedded heavier
showers that could pose a low end nuisance flooding threat.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Guidance is in good agreement on an upper low digging
south across the central CONUS and toward the coast Thursday where
it will begin to absorb the northward advancing coastal low further
enhancing precipitation. The interaction of these two features is
expected to slow both resulting in a broad, meandering trof along
much of the gulf coast both Thursday and Friday. This precipitation
is largely expected to be light to moderate stratiform rain, but
some embedded heavier showers could again pose a low end flood risk.
Another upper trof will finally push a more progressive frontal
boundary through the region sometime Saturday bringing the rain to
an end and clearing skies into early next week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Scattered light, stratiform showers will continue through the
early morning in the wake of a cold front along with IFR ceilings.
Precipitation will come to an end from west to east between
08-12Z. Ceilings will gradually improve through the morning with
VFR skies expected by early afternoon before clearing entirely.
Gusty northerly winds will persist through the morning before
gradually diminishing through the afternoon as high pressure
builds into the region. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Gusty offshore flow and seas of 3-5 feet will continue in
the wake of a frontal passage through the morning before weakening
this afternoon as high pressure begins to build across the region.
Winds will turn back onshore Wednesday afternoon ahead of a
developing coastal low that will bring widespread precipitation
across the coastal waters Wednesday through late Friday. Strong
offshore winds and increasing seas are expected to develop Thursday
in the vicinity of the center of the coastal low before abating late
Friday as the low pushes off to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Breezy north winds will continue through the
morning before diminishing this afternoon as high pressure builds
into the region. Precipitation chances increase significantly
Wednesday evening and remain elevated through Friday night as a
coastal low and frontal boundary interact near the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  27  58  43 /   0   0   0  90
LCH  53  35  64  52 /   0   0  10  90
LFT  51  34  62  52 /   0   0  10  90
BPT  55  39  68  53 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-
     432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66