144
FXUS64 KLCH 082336
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
536 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With stable conditions and an increase in low level moisture fog
  will likely become an issue again tonight.

- A sharp Canadian cold front will push through Sunday bringing
  unseasonably cold temperatures early next week. Portions of the
  region may receive their first freeze.

- Gale watch in effect for outer coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Current conditions are warm with temps in the upper 70s to lower
80s under mostly cloudy skies. A front has slowed to a crawl and
is currently bisecting the ArkLaMiss region down to STX. This
front over the next several hours will begin to push into our CWA
assisted by another cold front. There will be little moisture to
work with, however the front could squeeze out some isolated
showers tonight into tomorrow morning as it sweeps through. As far
as fog is concerned, some areas of patchy to dense fog will not
be out of the question across the CWA ahead of the boundary, and
especially in the coastal waters. Issuance of an inland and marine
Dense Fog Advisory could be possible in subsequent forecast.

Cold and dry air will filter Sunday as the surface high pressure
begins to descend into the plains. This will lead to elevated
northerly flow across the CWA during the day on Sunday. Wind speeds
at this time appear to be below Wind Advisory criteria. The main
concern at that time will be fire weather as the ongoing drought and
breezy northerly winds could lead to elevated fire weather
conditions. For now, a Fire Danger Statement will be in effect
tomorrow, however this could be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. A
secondary concern with the breezy northerly winds is the apparent
temps, which are forecast to be in the in the upper 20s to lower
30s that night. It appears unlikely that a Freeze Watch/Warning
will be needed at this time for that time period.

The surface high pressure will be over the central to southern
plains on Monday. Wind speeds will come down a bit, however elevated
fire weather conditions will persist. Highs on Monday will struggle
to get higher than the upper 50s across the entire CWA, with lows
radiational cooling into the low to mid 30s that night under
clear skies and nearly calm winds as the surface high moves
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

By early Tuesday morning the surface high pressure will be
directly overhead with light to calm winds, clear skies, and the
coldest temperatures so far this season. That morning, lows are
forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s for all areas except
the immediate coast, where temps will likely be around 3 to 8
degrees above freezing. While pipe busting temps are not expected,
there is a 40 to 95 percent probability of areas along and north
of the I-10 corridor experiencing subfreezing temperatures. This
will meet the criteria for a Freeze Watch/Warning and issuance is
likely.

The aforementioned surface high will be centered over the central to
eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday afternoon into evening, with southerly
to southeasterly flow returning. Aloft, the flow will be near zonal
to WNWrly as an upper ridge takes shape over MX / the Gulf. We will
see temperatures increase over the mid to end of the week period,
getting to just under 10 degrees above climatological norms. There
will be little to no chance for rain until the end of next week;
even then, chances remain below 25 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Conditions forecast to trend mainly VFR into the midnight hour of
the 09th. Hereafter, SW winds will weaken ahead of cold front
allowing potential for ground fog to develop along with a few
vicinity showers. Cold front likely to approach interior counties
and parishes upon morning twilight and moving offshore shortly
after sunrise. Strong gusts expected out of the NNW (20-30kt) to
remain through late afternoon before easing tomorrow night.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The calm conditions of the past several days will rapidly
deteriorate this evening and into tomorrow morning as a robust
cold front moves offshore. While it is not anticipated for storms
to be an issue, winds will quickly increase with sustained north
winds over 20 knots and frequent gusts of 35 knots. A Gale Watch
was issued for the outer coastal waters and a small craft advisory
was issued for the inland lakes and bay along with the nearshore
waters. Waves will build in response to the winds, building
between 6 and 10 feet Sunday and Monday. Winds will start to
subside on Monday night, falling below 20 knots by Tuesday
morning.

Low water advisories may be needed on Monday as the north wind
pushes waters offshore but it is too early to decide on one way or
the other.

The pressure gradient tightens Tuesday into Wednesday as a high
pressure system moves off to the east. As a result, we could see
elevated onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist from Sunday through
Wednesday. Sunday will be the biggest concern for fire weather as
the dry cold front passes through the region and very dry air
will follow. Dew points will drop into the upper 20s while minimum
RH values will be around 25 to 35%. In addition, 20-foot winds
will be from the north around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 25.
While Sunday will be the main concern for fire weather, elevated
fire weather will be an issue through Wednesday. For the extended
forecast, to the end of next work week, no measurable rain is
expected. For now, a Fire Danger Statement will be in effect
tomorrow, however this could be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  53  67  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  60  72  40  58 /  20   0   0   0
LFT  59  69  38  54 /  30  10   0   0
BPT  59  72  39  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-
     475.

     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...30