974
FXUS64 KLCH 290604
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1204 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns to the forecast this today with an approaching
  cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Moisture lingers post frontal passage while temperatures plummet
  due to strong cold air advection.

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
  are expected Saturday through Tuesday with this system, and a
  Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place both Saturday
  and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Light showers are present on radar across SETX, with some moving
into CenLA. Little accumulations are expected from this, however
we will see rain chances increase slightly in the afternoon.
Overnight into Sunday morning, scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected ahead of and along a cold front is forecast to
move through. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather and
excessive rainfall today for all of SETX and parts of W LA. The
front is expected to move offshore by Sunday late morning, however
lingering convection will remain behind it. Isolated showers will
be on tap for nearly the entire day Sunday, while a weak coastal
low takes shape along the S TX coast. This will move into the area
Monday ahead of an upper level disturbance. This will bring about
another round of heavy rain Monday, with another Marginal Risk for
nearly the entire CWA save parts of interior SETX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The first half of the long term should be drier relatively
speaking with the surge of moisture associated with the low
moving off to the east and a cool high pressure dropping into TX
then spreading into the rest of the Southern Plains. Well below
normal temperatures will persist that Tuesday, however we will see
them rebound to near normal as the high pressure moves eastward,
allowing for the return of southerly flow / moisture advection.
With the introduction of moisture starting Wed and going into Thu
ahead of a weak disturbance, we could see rain chances return
Thursday and linger into the weekend. Temperatures will start off
well below seasonal normals, with highs struggling to reach into
the mid 60s and lows falling into the upper 20s to upper 30. Over
the late week period, temperatures will gradually rise, with MaxTs
getting back to the 50s/60s and MinTs in the 30s/40s by the
weekend.





&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
forecast period with the main concerns being elevated southerly
flow strengthening in the mid to late morning hours and convection
returning. Regarding convection specifically, we could see a few
showers and isolated storms early this morning across parts of
CenLA and SETX, however there is a line of stronger showers and
storms anticipated to reach SETX around 3 to 6Z Sun before
spreading south and east through the rest of the region past that
point.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy winds with frequent gusts along with seas around 3-7ft will
continue through the weekend into early next week. Easterly winds
will shift SE tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will pass
through Sat night/Sun morning. Winds turn N to NE behind the front
and remain out of the north through Tuesday. A SCA is current in
effect for the outer coastal waters through 00Z followed by an
SCA for all zones through 00Z tomorrow. Thereafter winds/seas may
dip below SCA criteria for a bit tomorrow night before increasing
again Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moisture will be returning ahead of strong cold front that will
arrive tonight. Pre frontal passage, breezy SE winds will allow
dewpoints to increase into the mid 50s to low 60s through the
afternoon. Winds shift to the north/northeast Sunday morning post
frontal passage and remain somewhat breezy and out of the north
through early next week. However, even with offshore flow moisture
will linger post-front with frequent shower activity expected Sun
through early Tues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  41  68  43 /   0  20  40  80
LCH  63  48  73  52 /   0  10  20  80
LFT  62  43  72  54 /   0   0  10  60
BPT  64  53  75  50 /   0  10  20  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87