Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
037 FXUS64 KLCH 090602 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A moderation in temperatures is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east and light winds return off the Gulf. - A dry cold front is expected late Wednesday before temperatures quickly moderate again by the end of the week with no significant chance for rainfall. - Another cold front is scheduled for Sunday that may bring a slight chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Cold air advection cloud deck moving south-southwest across the Louisiana portion of the forecast area will make overnight low temperatures tricky as when clouds move in temperatures should be steady. Therefore, bump up the overnights a couple of degrees for the Louisiana locations. Still some question if the clouds can make it all the way to southeast Texas for sunrise. Surface high pressure over the middle to lower Mississippi River Valley is expected to continue to slide off to the east today and this will allow for a gradual turning of the winds to become more easterly and southeasterly today then southeasterly on Wednesday. Dry northwest flow will continue aloft and therefore Gulf moisture return will be shallow with some moderation in temperature and modest increase in low level humidity. During the night Tuesday night into Wednesday morning some patchy fog will be possible with the low level moisture and expected light winds and mainly clear skies. With the northwest flow aloft provided by an upper level trough east of the Mississippi, a short wave will drop on down late Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a weak cold front with it. Cold frontal passage is expected to be dry as moisture remains shallow with mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H below 40 percent. Seasonally cool temperatures behind the front for Thursday before high quickly moves off to the east and southerly winds off the Gulf return. 07/Rua && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Increasing southerly winds at the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend as surface high pressure moves off to the east coast and low pressure develops east of the Rockies. Increasing flow off the Gulf will bring about warmer than normal conditions for Friday into Saturday. A cold front is expected to move across during Sunday. There is some increase in moisture with PWAT values getting above the 75th percentile and mean layer relative humidity nearing 70 percent. Although upper level dynamics and low level forcing at this time is progged to be not too impressive. Therefore, will keep pops on the low side for the Sunday frontal passage. Still some question as to how cold the air mass will be behind this frontal system with some guidance suggesting the push of the colder air will be off to the east or stay to the northeast. 75th-25th whisker plots from the NBM show temperature differences of Sunday night into Monday of some 20+ degrees. At this time will go with the deterministic NBM numbers that are close to the mean. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Cold air advection strato-cu shield is moving south-southwest into the forecast area and over the KAEX/KLFT/KARA terminals with MVFR ceilings. These clouds are expected to hang around through the night. Question is far west this cloud deck will get. At this point it should get to KLCH between 09/07-10z. Will keep KBPT VFR for now but will place some SCT015 by 09/11z. Cloud cover is expected to break up by mid morning Tuesday as cold air advection wanes as high pressure moves off to the east. Mainly VFR is then expected into the afternoon hours on Tuesday with light southeast winds. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure centered over lower Mississippi River valley will move off to the east today allowing for a light easterly flow over the coastal waters, then becoming light southerly on Wednesday. A weak dry cold front will move into the coastal waters late Wednesday to bring a brief period of light to modest offshore winds before winds again become onshore by the end of the week. No significant shower activity is expected through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure will move off to the east today allowing light southerly winds to return and with that some shallow Gulf moisture. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be in the 50 to 55 percent range today, then near 60 percent on Wednesday. Despite the increase in moisture, no significant rain is expected over the next few days. There will be a chance for some patchy shallow fog during the late night and early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 54 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 58 37 59 45 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 56 37 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 39 62 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07