Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
289 FXUS64 KLCH 041130 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 530 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A coastal low developing and moving up the Texas gulf coast will usher continued precipitation through this evening with the heavier axis of precipitation sliding over the lower Atchafalaya Friday - An approaching cold front will keep precipitation lingering through early Saturday with milder air filtering in through early Sunday - Dry and cool conditions expected Monday through the midweek as a stronger high pressure airmass moves into the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A trough of coastal low pressure is traversing the northern Gulf Coast toward lower Alabama. 00Z evening sounding measured PWAT`s along the 90th percentile indicating some showers and occasional thunder may produce very efficient rain rates through the morning and afternoon hours. While flood watch is not in place, criteria do come close and it is expected that ponding in urban or low lying streets or ditches may occur in the typical nuisance spots. That said a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place for lower LA today and tomorrow. Worth noting heaviest signals between probabilistic and deterministic guidance suggest areas along the coast below I-10 and into the Atchafalaya have better potentials to receive higher amounts. Friday remnant portions of the coastal trough will still hang along the coast or just offshore allowing at least of morning potential for excessive rainfall- mainly along Acadiana and east. With the frontal boundary offshore yet still a fair amount of surface moisture present, do expect Friday to be cool with highs in the lower 50`s given the absence of sunshine a modest CAA out of the north. As high pressure broadens southward from the central Plains, we`ll continue to see chilly lows in the upper 30`s and low 40`s through Saturday morning. A few showers may still be scattered along the coast toward the Atchafalaya, but likely diminish by early afternoon. Hereafter, weak southeast advection takes place allowing a gradual warm up in the mid afternoon to the low 60`s. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The long range calls for a quick warm up Sunday with the stronger influence from the marine layer advecting inland and clearing skies. However, this mild weather will be short lived with an incoming dry high pressure airmass descending south through the Heartland. Winds will shift back out of the north by the afternoon and continue to increase offshore through Monday. Worth noting dry air will accompany this regime keeping the extended forecast dry through Wednesday while high pressure broadens toward Florida re- establishing onshore flow and milder temperatures toward the the midweek. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Heavy rain is moving across south Louisiana this morning and will continue to move east. Stratus and scattered showers will remain in place through the remainder of the period with IFR ceilings likely. Winds will be north to northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Winds will gradually shift out of the north today through late Saturday with widespread, later decreasing to scattered precipitation occurring in the meanwhile. Strong offshore winds will build seas are expected to today in the vicinity of the center of the coastal low before abating late Friday as the low pushes off to the east. Drier conditions and light to moderate offshore winds will prevail from Sunday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 As coastal low shifts east winds return out of the NE and increase this afternoon with scattered to widespread rain chances into Friday afternoon. Precipitation chances gradually diminish Saturday with cooler drier air pushing back into the region Sunday on northerly winds behind a passing cold front. In the meanwhile minimum RH keeps to around 60% or greater. Going forward into early next week, afternoon RH drops further toward 45-55% range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 49 36 49 40 / 90 50 30 40 LCH 57 42 52 46 / 90 40 50 40 LFT 57 43 52 45 / 100 60 50 60 BPT 59 42 54 46 / 90 30 40 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05