Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
759 FXUS64 KLIX 241134 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 534 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Monday night through Tuesday. A few strong storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - A significant cool down to slightly below normal Thanksgiving Day through Friday night. - Borderline Small Craft conditions tonight into Tuesday morning. Solid Small Craft Advisory winds/seas Wednesday night into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The upper level pattern across the country is quite progressive at this time, which is pretty typical of this time if year. Current state of the upper levels is trough exiting the Northeast, ridge axis just east of the Mississippi Valley and low now east of the 4- Corners. As that upper low moves into the Central Plains it will be opening up. Even so, a surface low will be developing nearly underneath it. A cold front appendant to the low will be moving into the east Texas late in the day today. Farther east, over the northern Gulf Coast and local CWA, warm front will be lifting northward through the late morning and afternoon hours. The low level moisture surge should feel pretty obvious with dewpoints jumping upwards of 15 degrees. Model soundings show low/mid level winds increasing pretty much every single hour from 15Z to 21Z. That`ll aide in moisture influx in those layers in those hours. So when it comes to rain chances, probably won`t see much of anything until a few hours afternoon, starting with spotty showers. From MON 21Z to TUE 06Z, we possibly start to see more substantial updrafts due to now decent moisture in the column, a little instability aloft, and shear increasing. However, its not across the entire CWA. KMSY and KGPT soundings don`t have nearly the shear values that KBTR and KMCB have. So, am in very much agreement with SPC`s region of Marginal Severe Risk in our CWA. For the remainder of the night, CAMs suggest a general weakening trend of convection. That falls in line with model soundings which show stronger low level inversion developing as well as weakening winds which translates to weaker shear. Makes sense when you look at what the trough to the north should be doing which is weakening and pulling north. There could be some lingering showers through Tuesday as cold front associated with this system washes out. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Global models in good agreement that a secondary and deeper trough moving through the mid section of the country late Tuesday into Wednesday will drive a continental airmass well past the local area to the southern Gulf late week. That puts FROPA by around sunrise Wednesday morning for all but coastal areas. Moderate CAA will substantially drop temps (15+ degrees) and maintain that beyond Thanksgiving. Probably don`t moderate back to climo normals until next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Very thin layered FG will be near or at a few Terminals this morning but rapildy dissipate bringing about VFR conditions that will remain into the early evening hours. There is enough of a chance of some -SHRA moving through overnight tonight which we will handle with PROB30 grouping. Cigs will be at IFR levels within these PROB30 groups with a few prevailing as well by sunrise Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Broad surface ridge centered over the Ohio River Valley is steadily moving eastward. As it does so, offshore winds will be rotating around to east and then southeast through the early morning hours. Farther west, an upper level low is located near the 4-Corners region. It will be quickly moving eastward and into the Central Plains by late in the day today. A surface low will develop in the vicinity of the upper low and follow its path into OK and KS. The local pressure gradient will tighten in response to that feature. Thus, expect the southerly winds to increase to at least Exercise Caution speeds from west to east over the coastal waters late this aftn/evn. Models show BL winds peaking in the low 20s around 06Z on Tuesday and quickly falling off to 15kts or less by mid morning Tuesday. May need to issue a short term Small Craft Advisory for open Gulf waters. 48 hours after that, another (stronger) cold front will push through the region. The upper trough looks to be much deeper and broader which will likely translate to stronger winds that persist longer than 12 hrs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 78 64 78 53 / 20 70 90 30 BTR 81 67 81 56 / 20 70 80 20 ASD 79 64 81 56 / 10 30 60 30 MSY 82 69 84 61 / 10 30 50 30 GPT 76 66 78 59 / 0 20 60 40 PQL 78 63 80 58 / 0 20 50 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...TE MARINE...ME