258
FXUS64 KLIX 141951
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
151 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next
  week.

- Tonight, tomorrow night, and Saturday night, some patchy dense
  fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam
  headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A broad upper level ridge encompasses centered just east of the
Rockies, covers all but the east and west coasts of the country.
This flow pattern over the nation won`t appreciably through this
weekend. That means no rain expected and temps remain above normal,
possibly gradually moderating slightly. The bigger impact from
weather will be fog potential. Model soundings show a low level
inversion evening through the overnight period as clear skies allows
for modest radiational cooling. It`s certainly not a very
significant inversion, but moreso sufficient. Bigger concern is
potential compounding effect of smoke with dense fog setup. It`s
been so dry lately, D2 in some areas now, that fires can more easily
start. 2 marsh fires in 2 different parishes resulted in short-term
super fog development. So decided to go ahead and preemptively issue
a dense fog advisory for tonight and likely need one each night this
weekend.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Moving through next week, the ridge axis to the west of the CWA will
flatten as it tracks eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley
on Monday. Higher moisture content caught under that ridge will
spread across the local area. PWs still too low without sufficient
kinematics to produce rain, but its a start. Won`t be until later on
in the week. Global models beyond the 7 day forecast suggest at
least a decent chance for rain Thurs/Fri timeframe as a southern
stream trough moves through the region.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Relatively light southerly winds will continue throughout the day
before relaxing this evening and overnight as the boundary layer
decouples. Similar to last night, low level temp inversion will
promote fog development. Its not a significantly strong one which may
limit coverage to some degree. So while VFR will dominate the
forecast timeframe, periods of IFR to VLIFR will be possible either
from surface or tree top level fog.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US
through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of
onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light at around 10
knots or less and seas/waves less than 2 feet. Probably won`t see
appreciable changes until latter half of next week.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  76  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  57  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  54  74  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  76  53  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME