Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
090
FXUS64 KLIX 111129
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
529 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
- An Arctic high pressure system will bring temperatures to near
or below freezing this morning across much of the area. A
Freeze Warning has been issued for all of the outlook area with
the exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain
and the immediate SELA coast.
- Higher winds and seas will continue to cause hazardous
conditions to small craft through the early morning. Small
craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
The coldest morning of the season is here, but this should be the
only morning with a large chunk of the CWFA experiencing freezing
conditions as the surface high pressure starts to spread east of
the region allowing for a warmer return flow to set up. Today will
remain below average in terms of temperatures with most of the
region only climbing into the upper 50s or lower 60s respectively.
Overnight, winds will remain light, but overall with the upper
flow pattern trying to take on a more progressive or zonal flow
and a return flow eventually becoming established, overnight
temperatures will likely be at least 10 degrees warmer across the
region.
Going into Wednesday the warming trend will be more apparent with
the region warming during the day about 10-15 degrees warmer than
that on Tuesday as again the low level onshore flow continues to
strengthen as high pressure continues to exit the region stage
east. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Going into late week the warming trend is forecast to continue as
an H5 ridge develops over the region and the onshore flow remains
locked in over the area. As the low level flow gradually
strengthens going into the weekend some light shower activity may
be possible with the rich low level flow streaming into the
region. Temperatures during the day will return to above average
levels with mostly average overnight lows expected...maybe
slightly above for a few. Eyes center upstream at a possible
frontal boundary late in the weekend. The upper level flow
pattern eventually evolves to an active southwesterly flow aloft.
Globals are struggling a bit with how far and how quickly this
front arrives into the region. Kept POPs on the lower end later
this weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week
given the lower confidence again in timing and placement of the
system. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
VFR through this taf cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Starting off with Cautionary headlines for the tidal lakes and MS
Sound as well as SCAs for the Gulf waters. High pressure is moving
into the region, which will break down pressure gradient gradually
through the morning and into the afternoon today. Mostly benign
winds and seas through the rest of the workweek. However, onshore
flow develops and strengthens by this upcoming weekend, which may
require additional cautionary headlines by the end of the forecast
period. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 42 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 61 45 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 43 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 62 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 57 40 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF