353
FXUS64 KLIX 100458
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1058 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below
  freezing on Tuesday morning across much of the area. A Freeze
  Watch has been issued for all of the outlook area with the
  exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and
  the immediate SELA coast. Now is a good time to start
  winterizing your outdoor areas such as covering pipes and being
  prepared to cover plants.

- Higher winds (20-35kt) and seas (7-14ft) hazardous to small
  crafts will occur this afternoon through Monday evening.
  Frequent wind gusts to gale-force are expected through this
  morning.

- A combination of gusty winds up to 20-25mph and RH between 25-30
  percent will lead to a critical fire weather risk on Monday.
  Outdoor burning is NOT recommended on Monday and please be
  mindful of any burn bans that may go into effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The cold front that has been well advertised has fully pushed
through the area as of this evening. Winds will remain elevated
throughout the night and during the day today with frequent gusts
up to 25 mph. Strong cold air advection will be continuing this
morning, so portions of southwest Mississippi will likely see a
very brief window of freezing temps right at sunrise. The cold air
advection will also look to keep highs from getting out of the low
to mid 50s. Temps were also still nudged down from deterministic
NBM to account for this. These high winds, combined with very low
RH values of 20-30 percent will lead to critical fire weather
conditions during the day today. To read a more in depth
discussion on the fire weather danger today, read the FIRE WEATHER
section at the bottom.

As we get into Monday night and Tuesday morning, ridging moving
southward across the southern plains on the backside of the
upper-level trough will form a surface high pressure right over
our area. This will promote efficient radiative cooling Tuesday
morning on top of the Arctic air that has been advecting over the
area. This will lead to widespread freeze conditions for areas
along and north of the I-10/12 corridor as well as the river
Parishes. Some locations (mainly the river basins) could briefly
see "hard freeze" conditions Tuesday morning. This comes after the
50th percentile was blended in to the lows Tuesday morning to
account for the radiative cooling mentioned before since the
deterministic NBM is still just under the 75th percentile. The
main wrench that could cause lows to not get down so low is some
weak warm air advection, but that seems very minimal at this
time. RH values will still be around critical thresholds (25-30
percent) during the afternoon on Tuesday, but with the high
pressure centered over the area, winds will be drastically lower
than Monday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The aforementioned surface high will continue to slide eastward
across the north Gulf on Wednesday in association with an
amplifying ridge over the central Rockies and provide warm and
moist air to advect back into the area. This will lead to quite
pleasant conditions Wednesday through Friday with highs in the low
to upper 70s across the area.

There is a signal in the long-range guidance that a more active
pattern starts to take over across the central CONUS. However,
long range ensemble clustering still shows that there are
significant differences in timing and evolution of the troughs
that will come across the country next weekend. So, at this time,
this is just something to monitor for any changes as we get
closer into the weekend. For what its worth, some of the machine-
learning guidance is hinting at an elevated severe weather risk
this weekend, but remaining mostly north of here. Again, there is
too much ensemble difference to say any more than that at this
point, so this will be something to keep an eye on as we get later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for this forecast
period as cold and dry air continues to filter into the area. Main
impact for this cycle is gusty northwesterly winds up to 20-25
knots, primarily in the late morning and afternoon timeframe.
These winds will remain elevated until they abruptly calm down
after 06z tomorrow as a surface high filters into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1018 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A strong cold front has pushed through the coastal waters with
strong northerly winds behind it. Strong cold air advection
overnight and much warmer water compared to the air above it tonight
will lead to efficient mixing and winds gusting to Gales early this
morning. The strong northerly winds will also lead to seas of 9-12
feet over the open waters. Due to the persistence of these frequent
wind gusts there continues to be a Gale Warning for the western 2
thirds of our open Gulf waters. The winds will relax some after
sunrise over all of the waters. Latest guidance has backed down on
winds right above the surface, so confidence on downgrading the Gale
Watch east of the river to a SCY got higher. Winds should be 20-27
knots over the open waters and gusting to 30kt. After Monday, high
pressure filters across the waters and winds relax dramatically
during the day Tuesday and benign conditions takeover thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 614 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A cold front has moved through the area with very dry air now in
place. Northerly winds have already increased behind the front and
will remain elevated through Monday, with gusts up to 30 mph at
times. These winds combined with very low RH values, falling to
near or below 25 percent, will result in critical fire weather
conditions across all of southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi on Monday.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
the entire area due to the previously mentioned combination of
strong northerly winds and critically low humidity. Any fires that
develop will have the potential to spread rapidly. Outdoor burning
is strongly discouraged.

Winds will gradually diminish late Monday into Tuesday as a
surface high builds over the area. However, the very dry air mass
will linger, keeping minimum RH values very low, generally below
30 percent, Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should improve by
midweek as winds decrease further and moisture begins to return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  32  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  69  35  52  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  72  34  53  26 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  73  42  55  39 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  72  37  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  74  34  53  25 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-550-552-555-570-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ530-550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-557-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-
     077-080>082.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ534-
     536-538-557-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
FIRE WEATHER...JZ