Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
539 FXUS64 KLIX 052359 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 659 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 646 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Winds and seas will gradually subside overnight. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county is expected to diminish overnight. - Drier conditions return by the middle of the week. .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A low pressure system that has been producing gusty east winds, minor coastal flooding on east facing shores, and periods of light to moderate rainfall will gradually push inland across western Louisiana tonight. As the low moves inland it will weaken and eventually dissipate during the day tomorrow. This will allow east winds to decrease tonight into tomorrow, and the threat of additional coastal flooding will come to an end. However, lingering low to mid level moisture will combine with a moderately unstable airmass associated with warmer daytime highs tomorrow to support additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the area. Pop of 30 to 40 percent is in the forecast to reflect this convective risk. Speaking of the temperatures, highs will warm into the mid 80s, or to more normal levels for early October, as skies turn sunnier. Tomorrow night will see lows staying a bit warmer than average in the low to mid 70s due to lingering low level moisture, but any convection should quickly dissipate after sunset due to the loss of instability driving convective updraft formation. Tuesday will see a continued drying trend as an increasingly stronger mid to upper level high pressure system becomes the dominant feature over the Gulf South. PWATS will fall closer to the median for this of year as temperatures warm and dry aloft, and the development of a mid- level temperature inversion will help to tamp down deeper convective updraft development. However, enough low level instability will be in place as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to pop off some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday afternoon. PoP of around 30 percent is in place for the entire area on Tuesday afternoon to reflect this convective risk. Once again, any convection will be highly diurnal with dry conditions forecast by the evening hours. As the atmosphere slowly dries, temperatures will also be able to cool a bit more Tuesday night with lows falling into the upper 60s over inland areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A low pressure system that has been producing gusty east winds, minor coastal flooding on east facing shores, and periods of light to moderate rainfall will gradually push inland across western Louisiana tonight. As the low moves inland it will weaken and eventually dissipate during the day tomorrow. This will allow east winds to decrease tonight into tomorrow, and the threat of additional coastal flooding will come to an end. However, lingering low to mid level moisture will combine with a moderately unstable airmass associated with warmer daytime highs tomorrow to support additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the area. Pop of 30 to 40 percent is in the forecast to reflect this convective risk. Speaking of the temperatures, highs will warm into the mid 80s, or to more normal levels for early October, as skies turn sunnier. Tomorrow night will see lows staying a bit warmer than average in the low to mid 70s due to lingering low level moisture, but any convection should quickly dissipate after sunset due to the loss of instability driving convective updraft formation. Tuesday will see a continued drying trend as an increasingly stronger mid to upper level high pressure system becomes the dominant feature over the Gulf South. PWATS will fall closer to the median for this of year as temperatures warm and dry aloft, and the development of a mid- level temperature inversion will help to tamp down deeper convective updraft development. However, enough low level instability will be in place as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to pop off some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday afternoon. PoP of around 30 percent is in place for the entire area on Tuesday afternoon to reflect this convective risk. Once again, any convection will be highly diurnal with dry conditions forecast by the evening hours. As the atmosphere slowly dries, temperatures will also be able to cool a bit more Tuesday night with lows falling into the upper 60s over inland areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 By Wednesday, the broad mid to upper level high over the region on Tuesday will start to shift west toward Texas in response to a northern stream trough axis and related front sliding southward across the Lower Mississippi valley. Winds will turn more northerly throughout the day, and an an even drier airmass will start to advect into the region. PWATS will fall below the median and convective development will be a struggle. However, very warm temperatures of near 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon will be sufficient to spark off a few showers and thunderstorms over the area. These very hit or miss storms will not be strong, but could produce some gusty winds as they roll through. Once again, any convective activity will quickly dissipate in the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. The northern stream trough will continue to deepen from Thursday into Saturday, and all of the guidance has a highly amplified pattern in place across the CONUS by Saturday. Across the Gulf South, deep layer northerly flow will remain in place. This northerly flow regime will continue to advect a very dry airmass into the region with PWATS falling well below average. Some weak cold air advection is also expected behind a reinforcing backdoor cold front that will slide through on Thursday. This slightly colder airmass will allow highs to fall back to more normal levels in the mid 80s on Friday and Saturday. However, the bigger story is that overnight lows will feel like Fall with readings dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s over inland areas on Friday and Saturday night. Closer to the coast and south of the lake, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. The upcoming weekend looks fantastic for any outdoor activities. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Terminals were experiencing a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions associated with the upper low that now appears to be over southwest Louisiana. Scattered SHRA continue to wrap cyclonically around this feature, and could occur at any of the terminals over the next several hours. Most lightning has remained over the coastal waters and the lower portions of the southeast Louisiana coastal parishes. Have not mentioned TSRA in any of the terminals, but the threat for at least one or two strikes is non-zero. Expect MVFR conditions to become the prevalent condition by midnight, if not sooner, with at least brief IFR conditions possible, especially at KMCB. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions during the day on Monday with scattered SHRA possible once significant surface heating occurs by mid to late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Conditions will start to gradually improve across the waters tonight into tomorrow as the low that has been impacting the area the past few days begins to move inland over western Louisiana and weaken. A decreasing pressure gradient over the waters as this low weakens will allow winds to fall from advisory levels this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots by tomorrow morning. Seas will also gradually decrease in response to these lighter winds with seas of 2 to 4 feet expected by tomorrow. These lighter winds and calmer seas will persist into Tuesday, but another low moving through the Gulf from Wednesday through Friday will once again tighten the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf leading to higher winds and seas to close out the week. Another round of small craft advisories has a high probability of being needed by Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 86 70 89 / 50 40 30 30 BTR 72 87 72 89 / 40 40 20 30 ASD 71 86 70 87 / 50 40 20 30 MSY 75 86 75 86 / 50 40 20 30 GPT 73 83 72 84 / 60 40 20 30 PQL 72 83 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RW MARINE...PG