Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
463 FXUS64 KLIX 162336 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 536 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through most of this week. - Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along river drainage basins. - Rain threat returns late week into the weekend. - Possibly hazardous marine conditions Thurs/Fri&& .UPDATE... Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Extended the dense fog advisory to the west as locations all around the Baton Rouge metro has started to have dense fog formation. The city of Baton Rouge may not have dense fog, but driving into the city this morning will likely have areas of dense fog so we have included the city as well. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 An upper level ridge extends from South Texas to well north of Montana and is spread across most of the northern Gulf Coast. An upper trough diving southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast will flatten the east side of the ridge somewhat, but this won`t cause any appreciable changes to local weather. That means continued no rain expected and temps above normal. The biggest impact from weather remains to be fog potential. Model soundings show a low level inversion evening through the overnight period as clear skies allows for modest radiational cooling. The 12Z KLIX sounding again this morning showed the inversion was only 500` deep. Both shallower and steeper than GFSBufr showed for this morning (and tmr morning). Surface and BL winds are a forecast to be a bit lighter than this morning, so may get a little help with fog setup with that. Location of fog development has been difficult to pin down the last few days and not much different for tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Moving through this upcoming week, an upper low in the Desert Southwest tracks across the Rockies and Central Plains. This will flatten the ridge aloft. A surface low associated with the trough will begin to draw Gulf moisture northward. Although a stray showers may develop, not expecting much at all. What will be noticeable is gradual warming each day. By Wednesday, areal highs will be in the low to mid 80s, could be just a few degrees below record highs for this time of year. Global models struggle to produce consistent solutions in terms of the strength of the upper ridge centered over the Gulf late in the week and upper lows that track along its northwestern periphery. Then, the deepness of the upper lows/troughs have not been consistent either. That`s resulted in changing local dynamics as well as if associated front even moves through the CWA. Therefore, still feel like we`ll see rain but less confident beyond that. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Prevailing VFR for all terminals which will hold through the rest of Sunday. Fog probabilities for Monday morning have been increasing throughout today. Fog looks like it could get more widespread than the previous two nights, so the majority of terminals have a good chance for IFR to LIFR visibilities in that timeframe just before sunrise. Fog should burn off after sunrise and conditions return to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Surface high pressure will generally remain east of the local area through most of the week. This will keep flow oriented onshore and fairly light through mid week. Late week, the pressure gradient will tighten as a surface low develops over West Texas and moves through the southern portion of the Central Plains. Onshore winds will strengthen in response to this. Guidance suggests at least 15-20 knots in open Gulf waters Thursday and Friday with seas 3-6 feet. Model consistency falls off a bit after that. The last few days they suggested a decent from coming in from the west to NW, now models are showing the upper low driving this will be opening and flattening out as it moves across the mid section of the country which will result in a much weaker cold front that lays over as it reaches the local coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 57 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 57 77 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...HL MARINE...ME