Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
549 FXUS64 KLIX 121045 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 445 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 443 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Warming trend this week. Above normal temperatures by Thursday. - Late in the, week morning fog may develop. Some patchy dense fog isn`t out of the question. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The upper level flow pattern will transition from a dry northwest regime to a more progressive flow through the short term period. At the surface, southerly flow has been established, at least in modest terms. This has allowed for better low level moisture to begin to filter back into the region. This is also kicking of a warming trend across the area. Generally, average temperatures today and tonight and back above average by Thursday with increasing heights and thicknesses over the region. With the moisture starting to gradually increase and continued weak winds and mostly clear conditions, some radiational fog may be possible during the morning hours starting Thursday morning. Otherwise, again the primary story is the warming trend. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Friday morning we may see some fog potential with the low level flow continuing to filter in more moist air. Beyond this point, winds will gradually increase a bit as pressure gradients slightly tightens, so rather than fog we may have to deal with overnight low stratus into the weekend. With the flow increasing and continued better moisture quality filtering into the region, cannot rule out a rogue streamer shower within the rich low level flow. That said, the QPF signal within the globals has really backed off over the last few runs, so took out mention of precip until the start of the new workweek. Upstream, a weak front tries to nose southward into the region late this weekend or perhaps on Monday. Only a slight QPF signal with POPs very limited. This feature stalls within the nearly zonal flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Globals are still struggling with the progression of the next potential front early to midweek next week. Timing and placement are an issue, however, the synoptic pattern remains progressive in nature...if not a developing ridge over the Gulf will likely keep anything north of the region through the medium range. Overall, above average temperatures will continue and it should remain mostly dry through the long term. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period at most area airports. IFR conditions at HUM and LIFR conditions at MCB will be expected around daybreak for a few hours tomorrow. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be possible at all area airports as well throughout the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US through the period. This will allow winds to become onshore. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the rest of the week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 76 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 74 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 77 57 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 72 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 72 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW