Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
394 FXUS64 KLIX 062345 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the short term. - Dry conditions expected beyond midweek. - Hazardous marine conditions develop later this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A band of heavy rain/storms has developed along and just west of the I55 corridor this morning. Low level wind shear increased just enough with LLJ increasing beyond what guidance had suggested going into the morning, which caused a few updrafts to rotate. Additionally, training of this band of broken cells have caused extremely heavy rainfall rates/totals leaving some roads impassable in Livingston, St Helena, and Tangi Parishes at the time of this discussion. The LLJ is breaking down and any severe weather potential will be minimized going into the afternoon and evening. CAMs also have this band of convection lifting northward as the surface trough continues to lift north out of the forecast area. Behind the trough, still isolated to scattered convection will be possible through the evening. That said, if a band or two of showers and storms develop over those areas that received the heaviest rainfall this morning get additional even isolated to scattered convection, additional hydro threat will continue. Going further into the short term into tonight and Tuesday, a modest H5 ridge will spread westward into the region. This will help set up a drying trend at least from an overall mean QPF perspective, however, there still remains at least some QPF signal across the region through the short term period. As the rain chances drop slightly toward the end of the short term, expect temperatures to rebound with some areas near the Atchafalaya reaching the 90 degree mark on Tuesday. As for the ongoing coastal flood potential, as tides continue to lower and the stronger easterly flow relaxes, think the overall threat will continue to drop with each high tide cycle. The only other entity to mention is overnight tonight with the wet grounds, some lower visibilities will be possible for those areas. Will need to pay closer to this potential as locally dense fog certainly isn`t out of the realm of possibility for the Tuesday commute. In fact, the latest SREF guidance has most areas in the Florida Parishes with a high prob of 1SM fog around sunrise. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Going into the long term the overall temperatures remain somewhat above average for early to mid October. Overall, moisture quality will start to decrease, especially as a weak cold front moves southward Wednesday and into Thursday before stalling across the northern Gulf. Ahead of the front lower-end POPs will continue through Wednesday before any rain chances shift offshore with the surface feature late in the week. Perhaps lower Plaquemines will keep rain chances, but that will be only landbased zones with any type of rain potential. Behind the front dry northwesterly flow sets up aloft, which will keep the mid and upper level quite dry. With a broad scale trough settling over the eastern US, late week looks to be somewhat average or a bit cooler than what we`re seeing early this week with some locations nearing or exceeding 90 degrees at times. As for the overnight, lows along and north of I10 may drop down to around 60 if not the upper 50s again as dry northwest flow and lower heights and humidity values all work to provide a very comfortable overnight temperature...at least away from warmer water bodies. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 All forecast terminals were VFR at issuance time. If there is going to be precipitation at a terminal tonight, it will be at KBTR, where there are currently isolated SHRA to the northwest of the terminal area. Will carry VCSH there for a few hours. The main question overnight will be the potential for fog development. Considering the amount of rain that has fallen in the last 24 hours, the potential for light winds and lack of cloud cover, tonight seems as good a night for development as any we`ve had recently. Will carry IFR or lower conditions from about 10z to 14z at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD. As things heat up in the morning, likely to be a period of MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops. Greatest threat for TSRA tomorrow afternoon will be at KGPT. As areal coverage is expected to be scattered at best, will use PROB30 for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure will start to become more dominant over the waters early this week, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to relax a bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 feet as the fetch relaxes. This brief respite in rougher conditions will end on Wednesday as another low in the Gulf develops and gradually pushes to the west. Northeasterly winds will increase back to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will increase to 4 to 6 feet from Wednesday through Friday and perhaps beyond. As for tidal lakes and nearshore waters, cautionary headlines are likely, but cannot rule out the need for Small Craft Advisories even in a general weaker offshore flow regime. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 87 69 85 / 20 20 10 20 BTR 71 89 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 ASD 70 86 69 88 / 20 20 10 20 MSY 75 88 74 90 / 10 20 10 20 GPT 73 85 71 88 / 30 30 10 20 PQL 70 85 69 88 / 30 50 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF