Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
783 FXUS64 KLIX 230442 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1042 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Monday night through Tuesday night. A few strong storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - A significant cool down, to near normal, for Thanksgiving Day into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 The majority of the short term will remain uneventful as a surface high pressure system sets up to our north, dominating the pattern. Sunday will see high temperatures a touch cooler than we have seen lately, with afternoon temps reaching the low to mid 70s for most areas. This is thanks to the weak front that is currently making its way through our area at snails pace and should stall somewhere close to the coast. Monday we will see temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area as our northerly winds from Sunday are gone by Monday morning. Winds turn to the south and start to bring even more moisture back into the area ahead of our next system. With this moisture pumping in, we see PoPs start to jump up late Monday night. This comes as a surface low pressure sweeps across the Central Plains with an associated cold front dragging along with it. While we won`t see the temperature aspects of this front until later, we could see some showers and storms out ahead of it by Monday night, mainly for western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Tuesday is when we are forecasted to see the best chances for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast period. PoPs peak Tuesday afternoon, pretty high for northern areas with ~80-90% for SW MS down towards Baton Rouge. Around the lake an Coastal Mississippi are sitting with PoPs ~50-60% and finally coastal areas are the lowest around 30-40%. A few of these storms could end up on the stronger side with a more favorable environment than we have had in a while. This all comes as an upper level trough shoots out of the desert SW and slides up towards the Midwest and eventually is absorbed into a trough sliding across the northern Plains. This changes the overall pattern in general as we see broad trough across the entire central parts of the country. For the temperatures aspects to this system, the front looks to come through the area throughout the day Wednesday and exiting the coast by early Thursday. This brings cooldown for day time highs already on Wednesday, down into the low 70s and our Thanksgiving day will be into the low to mid 60s. Early morning lows will be the coolest they have been in a while, down into the low 40s to low 50s. Friday morning looking to be even cooler, down into the 30s for some northern areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions at most terminals and this should hold through the forecast period. SW areas are seeing some low stratus, which is impacting HUM, but this should clear over the next couple hours. Light winds and just some thin high clouds expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Winds are expected to remain near or below 10 knots this weekend, as a high pressure system over the eastern Gulf becomes more dominant over the waters. However, another system will once again push winds and seas higher Monday afternoon. Southerly flow should increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this next storm system moves through. After a frontal passage late Wednesday, winds will increase out of the north to around 15 to 20 knots possibly reaching small craft criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 51 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 54 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 54 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 10 MSY 61 77 60 79 / 10 0 0 10 GPT 58 77 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 55 77 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL