262
FXUS64 KLIX 072355
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
555 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - Another shot of colder air will follow the passage of a strong
   cold front tonight. The coldest air won`t arrive until Monday
   with the coldest night being Monday night/Tuesday morning.

 - About an 18 hour period of hazardous marine conditions behind
   the cold front late Sunday night through Monday afternoon before
   conditions improve.

 - Temperatures warming to well above normal for Wednesday and
   Thursday before much colder weather arrives next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Light rain that was hanging out along the coast this morning has
now pushed offshore for the most part, however we will see a
return of rainfall later today. Later today a cold front will
push through the area and along with it we will see another round
of showers, mostly in the evening hours. Additionally throughout
the day today, we may see some patchy fog in some areas as a cold
front pushes towards the area and a warm front sits offshore.
While this won`t likely get to a widespread dense situation, there
could be patchy areas of low visibility.

Our cold front tonight will bring a cooldown through early week,
with Monday`s high temperatures sitting in the mid to upper 50s
for most areas. The front will also dry things out once it passes
through, with PoPs falling down to ~0% after it passes. Surface
high pressure starts to build in Monday afternoon, which will
dominate the forecast through at least mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The beginning of the long term will see high pressure over the
region, keeping conditions fairly quiet. Our cold front from
Sunday night will bring our coolest morning lows Tuesday morning.
MinTs will be in the low to mid 30s for areas north of the lake
and the low 40s south of the lake. A couple models hint at these
being even lower, but with no majority consensus decided not to
adjust them and left NBM numbers in. Tuesday afternoon highs will
be just a touch warmer than Monday, but by Wednesday afternoon
highs return to the upper 60s for most. Thursday will be up close
to a good 10 degrees above our climate normals this time of year,
with MaxTs in the low to mid 70s.

In terms of precipitation, the majority of the period will remain
dry, with the only increase in PoPs early Friday morning and even
that is only about ~15-25%. There are hints at a system late in
the period that could bring our next freeze, but there isn`t a ton
of model consistency with this so it will be just something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Terminals were generally VFR at forecast issuance, but don`t
expect that to continue much longer. Cold front was over western
Louisiana at 23z and moving eastward. A line of SHRA had developed
in advance of the front, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected.
The leading edge of this line may reach KBTR by 03z or so. There
appears to be enough instability aloft to produce at least a few
TSRA with this line over the next 3 to 6 hours. Will carry a 2
hour window at most terminals (except KHUM) with the mention of
TSRA. IFR conditions should be widespread beyond 06z until at
least mid-morning Monday, when ceilings should lift above FL010.
The forecast question for the latter portion of the forecast is
when clearing occurs. Forecast sounding and moisture fields
indicate that VFR conditions are unlikely prior to 18z Monday, and
HRRR soundings show at least some potential to hold clouds in
until sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A strong cold front will push through Sunday night with offshore
winds near 20-25 knots developing. Small Craft Advisories will be in
effect from midnight Sunday night through Monday afternoon. High
pressure quickly builds back into the area Monday night into This
relaxes winds and seas through midweek, with winds becoming onshore
and light again by later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  54  33  58 /  90   0   0   0
BTR  47  58  35  60 /  80   0   0   0
ASD  47  59  34  59 /  80   0   0   0
MSY  51  60  43  60 /  70   0   0   0
GPT  48  59  36  58 /  70   0   0   0
PQL  45  59  33  59 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL