187
FXUS64 KLIX 090008
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
608 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below  freezing
on Tuesday morning along and north of the I-10/12  corridor. Now is
a good time to start winterizing your outdoor areas such as covering
pipes and being prepared to cover plants.

- Higher winds (20-30kt) and seas (7-12ft) hazardous to small crafts
are likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, wind gusts
could approach gale-force. Highest winds and seas will be 20nm or
farther offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A broad upper level trough will multiple embedded shortwaves
currently encompasses most of the country right now. As one of the
impulses over the upper Mississippi Valley digs south this evening
and tonight will really push the base of it southward. This will
drive an arctic airmass southward into LA, reaching the CWA probably
a little after midnight tonight. CAMs and medium range models
indicate some showers will be possible right ahead of and along the
boundary, not thinking there will be much if any impacts locally.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Strong cold air advection driven by ~1040mb surface ridge will bring
the coldest air of this fall season. Looking at highs and lows
dropping at least 25 degrees from where they area today. With breezy
conditions Monday morning, wind chills will dip into the mid 20s to
mid 30s. It`s not until the next night, Tuesday morning, when post
frontal ridge moves overhead, that air temperatures reach their
coldest with this system. Model guidance remains quite consistent
with lows in the upper 20s to freezing along/north of I-12 corridor
in LA, plus coastal and SW Mississippi. Expect mid to upper 30s
south of there. Thus, chances remain high that a Freeze Warning will
be needed.

But like most cold fronts this early in the falls season, its a once
and done cold snap with temps jumping 20 degrees or so in a just 48
hrs. Upper level ridge starts moving in from the west by midweek,
moderating temps back to near normal for this time of year.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Expect conditions to remain VFR throughout the evening today as
showers have struggled to develop. Main concern for this forecast
package is the early morning hours tomorrow from 09-15z across
the area. A strong arctic front is expected to come through during
that timeframe and bring with it mostly scattered showers and an
isolated thunderstorm or two along it. Also, right ahead of the
front, expect IFR ceilings as the moisture pools ahead of it. The
front should make its way through all of the terminals by 15z and
VFR conditions, albeit windy with gusts up to 20 knots out of the
northwest, will take hold of the area through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Established southerly winds are starting to subside and become
more variable as pressure field weakens due to approaching surface
trough. Probably see southwest direction winds pickup late tonight
before the front actually gets here. When it does though, high end
Small Craft Conditions appear likely. An advisory has been issued
with potential need for short term Gale late Sunday. A surface high
starts filtering into the area on Tuesday and light winds and calmer
seas return with it.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  66  33  50 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  58  69  37  53 /  30   0   0   0
ASD  60  72  35  53 /  30  10   0   0
MSY  64  74  43  56 /  20  10   0   0
GPT  63  74  39  55 /  20  10   0   0
PQL  60  75  35  54 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ME