Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
110 FXUS65 KLKN 050905 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 205 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 * Much cooler temperatures expected through Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows in the 20s to 30s. * High pressure builds back across the region with highs recovering back into the 60s and 70s by midweek. * Watching the possibility for another strong trough with increased southwesterly winds and light rainfall by late week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Watch for patchy fog through early Sunday morning thanks to residual soil moisture from antecedent rains and light winds. Any fog that does form should diminish shortly after sunrise. Height rises with surface high pressure building southward across the state today as the longwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall moves off to our east into the plains. Cold overnight low temperatures near to a few degrees below freezing, which will end the growing season for locations that haven`t had a killing freeze yet. Highs will gradually recover into the mid to upper 60s through Tuesday, finally returning near to slightly above seasonal normals by Wednesday through Friday with low to mid 70s. Dry weather across the region through Friday. The next main weather player continues to come into focus by late Friday through next weekend as a deepening long-wave trough moves onshore, though further details have yet to be ironed out with disagreement in when several short-waves move through this trough. Increasing southwesterly winds and light rainfall high- elevation mountain snow cannot be ruled out, but snow-level detail is too far out at this time. A return to below normal temperatures when the trough and associated surface cold front cross the area can also be anticipated. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Uncertainty greatly increases Friday through the upcoming weekend in how quickly the next longwave trough axis will move across the interior West. Several long-range ensemble cluster scenarios favor a slower eastward progression, maintaining stronger southwesterly flow across the Great Basin with milder temperatures into Saturday. Other cluster scenarios, though a minority of long range ensembles, push an open long-wave trough eastward more quickly through the weekend, which would result in cooler temperatures and more unsettled conditions. Please continue to monitor upcoming trends heading into this week. && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions across the terminals through the day with north-northeasterly winds 5 to 10 kt, occasionally reaching 15 kt. Scattered mid-level clouds through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low fire weather concerns after recent widespread wetting rains. High temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal will gradually trend warmer through the week and high pressure strengthens across the region, increasing into the mid to upper 70s by late week. Light winds through the week, but afternoon gusts increase to near 25 mph by Thursday ahead of the next incoming longwave trough and surface frontal system. Increasing chances for additional precipitation and stronger winds Friday into this weekend with this feature, though details remain less certain deepening on how quickly it moves onshore. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...84 FIRE WEATHER...84