866
FXUS65 KLKN 031004
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
304 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level disturbance will bring showers and
thunderstorms to areas mainly north of I-80 this morning into the
afternoon before drier conditions settle in tonight. Warming
temperatures and lighter winds are expected midweek as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures are expected to
reach well into the 90s in some valleys. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return Thursday and last through the weekend mainly
north of I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night

Sufficient atmospheric moisture, instability and upper-level
support from a jet situated over the PacNW will bring showers to
northwestern Nevada this morning moving eastward into ELko county
but the afternoon. Higher chances for appreciable rainfall of one
tenth of an inch or more are situated across far northern Nevada
where up to a 50% probability exists. Winds will be out of the
southwest this morning, transitioning to west through tonight as
a weak cold front moves through. Showers will exit Elko county as
well with drier and warmer conditions settling into the state
Wednesday. Temperatures today will only be in the 70s across much
of northern Nevada and lows will drop into the chilly 40s for most
valleys. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler as the
ridge builds back over the region.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.

Wednesday, high pressure will have a firm hold on the region, with
above average temperatures and dry condtions for the area. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90 for most, with light winds.

Thursday, a shortwave moves through the state, bringing some
instability to the area. Ample moisture looks to be in place, with
dew points in the 50s. Model soundings from the GFS are showing
DCAPE values as high as 1200 J/kg at Elko. This value suggests
gusty and erratic winds from nearby collapsing updrafts and
thunderstorms will be possible. For now Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are in the grids along and north of the I-80
corridor, where the lift is most favorable. Highs will warm into
the low to mid 90s for most, with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Friday, a negatively tilted ridge axis will be located across
areas of northern Nevada. Hot temperatures continue with highs in
the low to mid 90s, and night time lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Stronger indicators of severe weather are present in model
data. Dew points will again range in the 40s to mid 50s, lifted
indicies of -2 to -6 support favorable areas of lift across Elko
and portions of White Pine county, speed and directional
convergence of upper level winds, Bulk Shear of 40-50 kts, MUCAPE
values of 1500 J/kg and DCAPE of 1500-1600 J/kg. MUCAPE values of
1500 is an indicator of moderate to borderline severe
thunderstorms, with DCAPE values of 1500-1600 good indicators of
severe outflow gust from collapsing storms. All this to say Friday
will likely see some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with some potentially severe in nature.

Saturday, the threat for more showers and storms continues in the
afternoon across mainly Elko county, with favorable lift,
moisture, shear, however there looks to be less CAPE available at
this time. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s again across the
area with lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

Sunday, a Baja low looks to encroach north. There is a lot of
model ensemble uncertainty but early indicators suggest active
weather could continue across portions of northern Nevada, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and the lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals today. A system
clipping northern NV will bring mid-level clouds to KWMC KBAM and
KEKO with a 10-20% chance of light rain showers today. TS should
remain north of I-80. Dry conditions are expected at KELY and
KTPH. Winds will however be breezy this afternoon across the
entire region, with westerly winds of 12-20kts gusting 20-30kts.
Dry tonight into Tuesday across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows in area streams and rivers continue.
The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain
currently hovering near action stage and is expected to remain at
or just above action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. The overall trend continues upward and minor flooding
may be possible by mid to late week as temperatures rise.

Jarbidge River near Jarbidge is very close to action stage and may
rise further into action stage within the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/86/91