Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
438 FXUS65 KLKN 071929 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1229 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected across northern and east-central Nevada today. Active weather will continue through the weekend at least for northern Nevada with more daytime showers and thunderstorms before drier conditions settle in. Dry summer-like conditions next week, with temperatures remaining above normal for the region with upper 80s to low 90s for highs. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night An upper-level disturbance and mid-level moisture is promoting showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of northern and east- central Nevada today. The best mid-level dynamics will support a marginal risk of severe weather across much of northern Eureka, northern Lander, White Pine and Elko Counties. Gusty outflow winds up to 70 mph, hail, frequent lightning along with heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. Meanwhile, drier air ushered into west central Nevada will reduce convection from west to east late this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorm activity expected to wane tonight. After a brief break, active weather will continue through Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms mainly for parts of central and northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 50s. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday A shortwave moves through Idaho and northern Nevada Sunday. Instability and moisture remains present for isolated to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north of and including the I-80 corridor. Model surface based CAPE and DCAPE are currently showing values over 1000 J/kg which could lead to an environment of gusty and erratic outflows winds, some of which could reach severe strength. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the 50s. Monday, some residual moisture and instability from the passing shortwave, may produce some isolated showers and storms across Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties during the afternoon. Elsewhere, quiet conditions are expected. Highs will generally be in the 80s with some areas pushing 90. Lows will be in the 50s. Tuesday through Friday, zonal flow will keep things relatively quiet, with dry conditions and highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Wednesday through Friday, winds will be breezy and out of the west during the afternoon 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts. Lows in the 50s. Some spread appears in the models Friday and beyond, however cluster analysis hints at some troughing possible which could signal a cool down. && .AVIATION...SHRA and VCTS will develop over much of the region again this afternoon and evening, with the main concern being strong gusty winds of 50kts or more. Thunderstorm outflow winds may also produce blowing dust, with local reductions to VIS. With cloud bases up around 10-12k feet today, not expecting too much in the way of rain, though there is a chance of pea size to penny size hail. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening hours. The greatest chance for TS remains at KEKO and KELY at around 45% this afternoon with lesser chances west along I-80 and US-50. && .HYDROLOGY...Persistent above normal temperatures are expected to increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could produce wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid increases in flows in some of the creeks and streams. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage and minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage this evening. Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action stage over the next few days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 90/90/90