132
FXUS65 KLKN 172136
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
236 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Progressive cold front exits the forecast area this
evening with a much colder air mass left in its wake. Temperatures
widespread below freezing are forecast tonight and protection
will be needed for sensitive plants and crops. Warming trend
expected into the weekend with relatively benign weather aside
form the typical afternoon breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night.

Progressive cold front exits the forecast region to the east this
evening with breezes also easing across the region and skies
clearing across northern Nevada. Main concern tonight will be the
post frontal cold air mass that will be residing over the region.
Widespread frost and sub freezing temperatures will be present
tonight and frost advisories, freeze warnings, and hard freeze
warnings are currently issued across most of the forecast region.
Low temperatures by early Tuesday morning look to be in the mid
20s to mid 30s for most, and some of the typical cold spots in the
valleys may manage a reading or two in the low 20s. Protection
will be needed for sensitive plants and crops across most of the
forecast region.

Warming trend begins Tuesday as long wave troffing resides over
the western U.S. and heights begin increasing. Daytime high
temperatures are forecast in the low 60s to low 70s. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the low 30s to low 40s with upper 20s
expected in the typical colder valleys. As such, a frost advisory
has been issued for portions of the forecast region Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning. A weak impulse moving into northern
Nevada from Idaho will bring a 15% probability of rain and snow
showers in the afternoon, primarily over the Jarbidge Wilderness.
Some instability looks to be present though PWATs are progged to
be quite low given the cold dry air mass influencing the region.
Any accumulation will be less than 0.10. Dry weather is expected
elsewhere under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light across
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Temperatures will be on the rise but still below normal starting
out in the 30s Wednesday morning as a diffuse trough axis remains
over the western U.S. Areas of frost are still expected. Highs
Wednesday will remain below normal in the 70s and 80s. Trough axis
deepens Thursday allowing a more south-southwesterly flow aloft
to bring in higher level moisture into eastern Nevada Thursday.
Chances of rain remain below 10% but cloud cover could be
widespread. A shortwave will push remaining moisture east of the
state on Friday with the warming trend continuing. Highs on Friday
could reach the 90s once again with lows only in the 50s. Winds
will be light and mainly terrain driven through Saturday. A trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest will increase winds for the
area early next week but dry conditions are expected to prevail
with above normal temperatures returning.

&&

.AVIATION...A strong cold front moving through the state will
bring gusty winds to all TAF sites through the early evening
hours. The strongest northwest winds will be at KTPH where gusts
could approach 40 knots into late afternoon. Some blowing
dust/haze observed on GOES satellite imagery could bring a period
of reduced visibility to KPTH through the evening hours but should
remain in the VFR category. Mid-level cloud cover associated with
the front along with wind speeds will diminish overnight. Rain
and snow showers associated with the cold front will stay north of
I-80 through this afternoon with shower activity waning this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cold front exits the forecast region to the east
this evening with gusty northwest winds easing thru the evening as
well. Widespread sub freezing temperatures expected tonight
across the majority of central and northeastern Nevada where
temperatures in the colder valleys will fall into the low 20s to
low 30s. A gradual warming trend begins tomorrow and lighter winds
are forecast aside form the typical afternoon breezes. Daytime
high temperatures look to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s for
most valleys by Saturday with minimum RHs less than 15%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Cold, sub-freezing temperatures will suppress high
elevation snowmelt tonight into tomorrow in faster responding
mountain streams such as Lamoille Creek. The mainstem Humboldt
River near Battle Mountain and Comus will continue with elevated
flows for the next several days but minor flood stage is not
expected to be reached. Dry conditions are expected this week with
a warming trend beginning Tuesday.

The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain is expected to continue
to recede, falling below action stage Tuesday.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to continue to rise
through midweek but remain in action stage before a declining
trend starts late this week.

Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will continue to reside
in action stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday ABOVE
1000 FEET in Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County... Northern
Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye
County.

Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday
ABOVE 1000 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range...South Central Elko County.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday Northern
Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South
Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka
County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Tuesday ABOVE
1000 FEET in Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...
Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

&&

$$

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