Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
966 FXUS65 KLKN 120910 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 110 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025 * Unseasonably warm temperatures today through Wednesday * Strong, gusty winds in Central Nevada Thursday * A drier, warmer weather system will impact the state late this week according to latest model runs && .UPDATE... Issued at 108 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025 No Changes are planned this morning as forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An interesting change in upper level dynamics has led to a changing forecast later this week. Ridging presently over the area helps to keep temperatures unseasonably warm threatening several local high temperatures records Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest model run has a long wave trough with a closed low set to move into the western CONUS Thursday. As the trough pushes ashore the closed LPC will eject south- southwestward off the SoCal coast. The low becomes semi-cut off as the axis of the trough slides just north of Nevada creating a col point over the state. As a result the system is basically re- directed around the area leading to a drier, warmer forecast. The LPC eventually passes to the south of the area later this weekend prolonging precipitation chances over central NV but most of the forcing associated with the system is shunted away from NV. PW values Thursday evening and Friday are still present but with much less frontogenesis and vorticity over the area accumulations have been reduced to 0.05-0.10 inches of valley rain along and north of I-80. What was once the potential first snow for northern NV valleys has now disappeared as snowfall with the system is confined to highest elevations in central and northern NV. Beyond the weekend another dynamic trough sets up over the Pacific to impact the western CONUS next week. Currently the system is forecast to produce better rain and snowfall accumulations for the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Lower confidence in impact of incoming system based on disagreement amongst models in latest run. Kept Wx grids relatively the same but QPF and Storm Total Grids are suspect. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the next 24-hour period with light winds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...86