733
FXUS63 KLMK 031408
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
908 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of central and south-central
   Kentucky this morning with visibility down to a quarter mile.
   Elsewhere, patchy dense fog is expected.

*  Majority of the upcoming week will feature dry and mild weather.
   Next rain chances come Friday and possibly into next weekend.

*  Gusty showers and a few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
   with the Friday system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The edges of the area of dense fog across portions of central and
southern KY are beginning to burn off per latest visible satellite
and sfc obs trends. While the core of the fog layer continues to be
locked in across portions of the Green River valley, with vis obs of
less than 1/4 mile at KGLW and KAAS, would expect this to improve
rapidly over the next hour. Since the fog is becoming more patchy,
we`ve allow the dense fog advisory to expire, though patches of
dense fog may continue over the next hour to 90 minutes. By midday,
all of the fog should mix out, leaving us with mostly sunny skies
and light to moderate SW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The closed upper low is now over the southeastern US, leaving our
area to be influenced by sfc high pressure and upper level flow
flattening out into zonal flow. This morning features quite a bit of
dense fog across the area, which is due to the recent rainfall
combined with clearing skycover and calm winds. Temps are hovering
in the mid-30s this morning, but a few Mesonet sites are lowering to
the freezing mark in south-central KY. Could have some isolated
instances of freezing fog, but majority of the area will remain
above freezing. The dense fog is causing visibility to drop to a
quarter mile, so some impacts on the early Monday morning rush will
be possible. However, most fog will burn off shortly after sunrise,
and the Dense Fog Advisory is scheduled to expire at 13z.

Today should be a fairly nice day, with plenty of sunshine and west
winds. Temps are expected to be slightly cooler than normal, with
upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

Clear skycover continues for tonight, along with calm winds and good
radiational cooling. We`ll see temps drop into the 30s again, and
perhaps another morning of at least patchy dense fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

===== Tuesday - Thursday Night =====

The upper flow pattern will feature zonal flow across the country,
with sfc high pressure dominating the forecast for our area with dry
conditions and mild temperatures for the mid-week. We start out
quite chilly Tuesday, with morning lows in the 30s, but we should be
able to rebound into the 60s by the afternoon under abundant
sunshine.

Our warmest day of the week could end up being Wednesday as a quick-
hitting shortwave pivots across the Great Lakes region. This feature
will drive a cool dry front through the Ohio Valley, but a lack of
moisture will keep things dry. However, the sfc pressure gradient
will ramp up ahead of the approaching front, leading to an increase
in WAA as southwesterly winds become more breezy. Gusts up to 20-25
mph will be possible. Temps are forecast to peak in the upper 60s,
with a few spots possibly pushing to the 70 degree mark. Additional
sunshine and normal temps are to be expected on Thursday behind the
front.

===== Friday - Sunday =====

Confidence continues to build on the next chances for gusty showers
and a few storms to arrive on Friday as a stronger shortwave and
attendant cold front swing through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes
region. We should once again see winds increase ahead of the front
as the sfc pressure gradient tightens, and combined with a
strengthening LLJ core overhead, we should have even stronger SW
winds with gusts to 30-40 mph possible. This will once again ramp up
WAA, leading to temps hitting the upper 60s again and near 70.

We`ll have a good amount of forcing in place for gusty showers and
storms throughout the daytime hours, with the potential for some
stronger storms capable of bringing down the higher winds to the
sfc. Model soundings continue to suggest a high-shear low-CAPE
environment, with mostly unidirectional speed shear profiles. Given
the amount of shear, we could see at least a marginal severe risk
with a damaging wind potential on Friday.

Lower confidence for the rest of the weekend, however can have
pretty high confidence that a deep trough looks to develop over the
eastern CONUS and temperatures trend cooler. Could have some
additional rounds of gusty showers to deal with, but timing of
individual waves as that deeper trough envelopes the eastern CONUS
is too low confidence for details at this point.


Extended Forecast Discussion (Beyond Sunday and into Week Two)...

== First Wintry Weather of the Season Possible Near Veteran`s Day ==

Extended teleconnection pattern looks to set up with a strong
-NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern, though the EPO takes a small negative dip
just prior to the 10th of November.  This pattern supports the
development of a deep trough across the eastern CONUS with sharply
colder weather for the Ohio Valley.  Experimental signal guidance
from early October, has led the charge with the signaling of this
deeper trough centered around 11/10-11/11.  Dynamical models sense
this as well, though the GFS is likely too fast with its deeper
trough development next weekend.  Here, we prefer the slower Euro
and Canadian solutions and its ensembles.

Main impact in the Monday/Tuesday (11/10-11/11) period would be a
stronger perturbation aloft that may rotate into the Ohio Valley.
Deep pocket of colder air looks to accompany it and this could lead
to a rain to snow scenario across our region.  This cold will not
last though as it looks to be quick hitting and will depart rather
quickly by day 9-10.  After that, teleconnection patterns break down
quickly leading to a more zonal/milder pattern spreading across the
CONUS.  Signal analysis has a weak signal crossing around 11/14 with
a stronger crossing around 11/16.  The 11/16 crossing may produce
strong/severe storms as it crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dense fog is causing considerable impacts to vis, with VLIFR
conditions expected at BWG, LEX, and RGA for the next two hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the period,
with winds from the WSW. Another round of patchy dense fog may be
possible again tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP