344
FXUS63 KLMK 231756
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1256 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dense fog is present over the region and will last through mid-
  morning.

* Dry and pleasant conditions today through Monday.

* A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing a chance for
  showers and a few storms. Severe weather is not likely with this
  system.

* Cooler shot of air will arrive for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dense fog is slowly beginning to erode across our north-central KY
counties, but will wait at least another 30 minutes or so before
dropping any counties from the Dense Fog Advisory. Based on GOES
satellite trends on the night fog imagery as well as new visible
imagery, dense fog lingers across much of central and southern KY.
The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM EST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low level moisture trapped under a stout inversion, coupled with
calm to light winds, clear skies, and recent precip has allowed for
widespread dense fog to develop. There is a Dense Fog Advisory in
place through 15Z for almost the entire region. A few counties in
southern Indiana were spared from the advisory given slightly drier
air. Looking at model soundings, looks like it may take a bit of
time after sunrise for the fog to thin due to the stout inversion.
Therefore the advisory will go through 15Z. The densest and deepest
fog has set up over the axis of heaviest precip from yesterday
(along a line from Hancock to Hardin to Anderson and Clark
Counties). This is where it may take the longest to burn off.
Visibilities are quite low, some sites show less than a quarter
mile. Use low beam lights and caution while driving this morning.

After the fog burns off, the rest of the day will feature pleasant
conditions under surface high pressure. Sunny skies and highs in the
upper 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure will begin to push off to the east on Sunday
night and winds will veer to the southeast. We will continue to see
clear skies and light winds, which will help temperatures to fall
into the 30s for lows. We will see a similar set up to this morning
with moisture trapped under an inversion. It is likely that we will
see at least patchy fog development Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Monday - Tuesday...

A weakening upper closed low will move across the central Plains and
into the Midwest on Monday. This will bring ridging over the lower
Ohio Valley, which will bring increased moisture and WAA. The warm
conveyor belt of this system will move right over the lower Ohio
Valley bringing widespread rain to the region Monday night through
Tuesday. The better forcing with this system will likely remain
north of the region, though some elevated instability around 500
J/kg will likely bring some storms across southern and central
Kentucky. Not expecting severe weather, but a strong storm is not
ruled out. Main hazards would be small hail, lightning, and brief
heavy rainfall.


Tuesday Night - Friday...

Another trough moving out of SW Canada will deepen and bring a broad
trough through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold
front will move through and could see some light showers.
Temperatures will be much cooler for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Looking to see highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Could even see
a few spots in the upper teens on Friday morning.

High pressure will build into the region on Thursday behind the
front, which will bring quiet weather for the holidays.


Weekend...

Deep troughing looks to set up over the western CONUS, which would
place the region under SW flow aloft. Continuous streams of
vorticity and southerly surface flow will allow for a return of
moisture. The weekend looks to be unsettled with chances for rain
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dense fog earlier this morning has slowly shrunk while lifting into
a low stratus deck. The thickest clouds are now between HNB, SDF,
and BWG. These clouds should continue to gradually thin and lift
through late afternoon, but cannot rule out brief low-end MVFR
ceilings at the aforementioned terminals. Winds will remain light
out of the W/NW this afternoon before going calm after sunset.

Tonight, another round of fog and low clouds seems likely. A
combination of IFR/LIFR conditions is likely, except at SDF.
However, some slight improvement in vsby is possible at HNB/BWG
after 10Z Monday due to increasing high clouds. Conditions should
mostly improve by 15Z Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...EBW