516
FXUS63 KLMK 110816
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A more significant wintry system is possible tonight into
  Friday morning, with a swath of 1 to 4" of snow expected for
  areas along and north of a Jasper, IN to Stanford, KY line.
  Travel impacts are likely along and north of this line Friday
  morning. The highest amounts will be north of I-64.

* Saturday night into Sunday morning, another system will bring
  snowfall to similar areas as Thursday night. Amount of snowfall is
  still uncertain, but another swath of 1 to 3" is currently
  forecast.

* Very cold airmass will move into the region on Sunday through
  Monday, as lows will be in the single digits and highs on Sunday
  in the teens and low 20s. Minimum wind chills may bottom out in
  the 10 below to 10 above zero range.

* Temperatures will steadily warm Monday afternoon through mid
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

A few lingering flurries and/or light snow showers are persisting
early this morning, although seeing an overall downward trend in
this activity as the shortwave trough axis is passing, and we become
more subsident. Lows should mostly bottom out in the 25 to 30 degree
range this morning, with a fairly small diurnal range expected
today, especially across the northern CWA. Given the heavy cloud
cover, only expecting low to mid 30s across the northern half of the
CWA. Across southern KY, look for upper 30s to low 40s. Overall,
look for dry conditions most of the day, however our next snow maker
lurks upstream.

That snow maker comes later this evening into Friday morning as an
Alberta Clipper quickly slides through the region. Overall the trend
with this system has nudged southward, and have also increased snow
totals a bit. Will be expanding the current Winter Weather Advisory
southward with this issuance as a result. Deep moisture overspreads
the area this evening with the column quickly saturating just after
sunset. Forecast soundings show that any surface temps that will be
hovering around or just above freezing should wet bulb to and just
below freezing with saturation, making p-type pretty easy for this
event as all snow. Perhaps some of the standard ice pellets you get
with the onset of column saturation, but those won`t last long if
they occur.

Overall, looks like a pretty good setup to accumulate with snowfall
occurring after sunset, and ground/surface temps already pretty cold
to start. Model analysis continues to show a good mid level
frontogenetical component with this system, and cross section
analysis also shows some weak symmetric stability (WSS), and
some instances of conditional symmetric instability (CSI), that
will allow for some more focused and more intense bands embedded
within the broader precipitation shield. Given good saturation
all the way through the DGZ, and these pockets of WSS/CSI do
think we could see some brief 0.5" to 1" per hour rates,
especially across our NE CWA.

Overall, the timing of the most impactful snow looks to fall between
7 PM and 7 AM EST, but could linger over in the Bluegrass region
until mid morning. So, ended the northern segment of the advisory a
bit later where residence time will be a bit longer. Overall, expect
areas north of I-64 could see a widespread 2-4" band, with
perhaps some localized amounts nearing 5". We are flirting with
Warning criteria up there if more widespread amounts over 4"
occur, however given the time of day (overnight), and that most
of the snow will have already fallen by the morning commute,
feel this is a less impactful event overall. Also, clippers
generally are more of an advisory level type of snow, so having
trouble committing to full blown warning criteria snowfall until
at least one more run of data comes in. Still could tweak the
going headlines on the day shift if need be.

The portion of the advisory that was added on the south end will
call for a 1 to 3" range of snowfall, but will also come with the
caveat that this is where some bust potential resides. As the
surface low approaches, some warm advection could creep into the
southern edge and affect SLRs pretty significantly. As a result, the
residence time is much shorter for accumulating snow here.
Hence the lower totals. It should be noted that gradients even
within each county on the southern end of the advisory could be
observed. In other words, some southern locations could get left
out of snow, while the northern part of the county sees an inch
or two. Nelson county KY would be a good example of that
potential scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Friday Night - Monday...

We`ll enjoy a brief quiet stretch of weather Friday night through
Saturday morning as the upstream pattern reloads with another
approaching clipper system. Don`t expect much in the way of a
diurnal temperature range during this stretch as heavy cloud cover,
a likely fresh snow pack (across our northern half at least), and
slight cool to neutral advection keep temp ranges small. Overnight
lows Friday night should range in the 20s, while highs on Saturday
will only reach the upper 20s and low 30s I-64 and north, and mid to
upper 30s across central KY. South KY may end up seeing low to mid
40s, which will create quite the gradient from N to S across the
area.

As similar trend in the data has occurred with clipper #2 tonight,
as data is coming in more robust, and a bit farther south. This
system is expected to follow a similar track to the first one, and
looks to put down another swath of accumulating snowfall, mostly
across the northern half of our CWA. At this point, this appears to
be at least another solid advisory level snow (1 to 3" currently),
and will monitor trends in the data. One thing to keep in mind is
that there won`t be much melting between round #1 and round #2 so
could end up with a pretty decent snowpack by Sunday morning for
areas along and north of I-64. This could play a role in just how
cold temps get late weekend into early next week.

Snowfall ends on Sunday with the quick hitting clipper exiting,
however the fun will just be getting started from a temperature
standpoint. Arctic high pressure looks to build in across much of
the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system, bringing the coldest
air of the season to us so far. Currently have low temperatures on
Sunday morning dipping into the single digits across the fresh
snowpack to low teens across southern KY. These temps combined with
a steady NW wind will help create wind chills in the 10 below zero
to 10 above zero range from N to S. These values would support a
Cold Weather Advisory for at least some, if not all of our CWA
Sunday morning.

After highs mostly in the teens on Sunday, Sunday night into Monday
low may even be colder with high pressure settling near or over top
of us. Looking for most lows in the 0 to 10 above range, with
perhaps some negative values across our north. The good news is that
winds will be lighter with the surface high near or over us. Still,
may need to keep a Cold Weather Advisory going through Monday
morning as well.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Dry conditions continue through early week with the arctic high
pressure losing hold by mid week. Temps will begin to slowly
moderate during this time, but conditions will stay dry at least
through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, some cold rain showers could
return by overall confidence is low by this time period. Looking for
highs in the 35 to 45 degree range on Tuesday, and more solidly in
the 40s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

MVFR ceilings continue at the TAF sites this evening, and are
expected to persist through the overnight into Thursday. Some brief
improvement back to VFR is possibly through the afternoon and early
evening hours, however look for conditions to quickly deteriorate to
low MVFR or even IFR shortly after sunset as a clipper system brings
snowfall to our area. BWG will mostly be spared from this late drop
in conditions, and expect them to stay VFR under an overcast mid
deck of clouds and perhaps some very light wintry mix.

Surface winds tonight stay pretty steady out of the NW, however will
gradually weaken and go WSW through the day, and then light SE by
later Thursday evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for KYZ031>037-040>043-049.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Friday for KYZ029-030-038-039-045>048-055>057-067.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for INZ076>079-091-092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Friday for INZ083-084-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS