826
FXUS63 KLMK 152331
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
631 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming temperatures through the middle of the week with highs
  into the 40s and even 50s.

* A cold front Thursday will bring widespread gusty showers, and
  possibly a few storms, along with breezy southwest winds. Very
  brief cool down Friday, before temps trend milder again for
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Warmer temperatures will start to return to the forecast. Sfc high
pressure will build over the southeast US tonight into the day
tomorrow. Aloft the upper pattern starts to flatten out and become
more zonal over the Ohio Valley. Return flow on the back side of the
sfc high will increase WAA over the region during the day tomorrow
and continue into the middle of the week. A sfc low passing over
northern Ontario towards Hudson Bay with help to tighten the sfc
pressure gradient helping to increase southerly flow with gusts of
15 to 25 mph out of the southwest. Forecast will remain dry and fair
with lows tonight not as cold, mainly in the low 20s with a few
spots dropping into the upper teens. With mainly sunny skies and
increased southerly flow, highs tomorrow will range from north to
south in the low/mid 40s north of the WK/BG Parkways with mid to
upper 40s to near 50 south towards the KY/TN border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

The main focus for the long term will be the warming temperatures
and widespread rain showers with the arrival of the next system on
Thursday. We remain mainly dry into Wednesday with continued
southerly flow at the sfc with slight ridging developing aloft. A
weak shortwave is expected to move over the region, overall we
remain mostly dry but could still see some low 20 PoP across our
southern CWA during the day Wednesday. We will also see increased,
slightly gusty winds and temperatures continue to warm into the
upper 40s into the low 50s.

Wednesday night into Thursday a deepening trough moving through the
Dakotas along with an associated strengthening sfc low will move into
the Great Lakes Thursday morning. An associated cold front will
approach from the west with a tightening sfc pressure gradient.
Increased moisture and warm air will continue to advect in ahead of
this approaching system and bring widespread rain showers. While
there continues to be plenty of deep layer sheer with this system,
model soundings continue to show little to know instability. While a
rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out it look overall unlikely. Highs
will climb into mid to upper 50s with precipitation amounts remaining
between a half to near an inch. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph out of
the south are also possible.

Cold front will sweep through Thursday night with colder air
filtering in behind it. Colder air will try to catch up with the
departing system and associated showers during this time. If it does
we could see a brief wintry mix or change over from rain to snow.
With a few days of warmer temperatures and overall lack of
confidence in the colder air able to catch up to the departing
showers, feel that any wintry weather that could fall would have
little to no overall impacts.


We end the week with a shot of cooler air, but dry with highs in the
30s. The weekend looks to start dry but an approaching system
continues to suggest that showers could arrive for the second half
of the weekend. With highs near 50 both days, any precipitation will
fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight with high pressure
located over the southeast US keeping light southerly winds going
overnight. The main thing we`ll have to watch during the current
forecast period is a band of MVFR stratus located over the Ozarks
this evening. Some model guidance has the stratus being carried east
tonight and reaching local terminals around 11-14Z Tuesday. The air
mass is currently quite dry over the region at 2-3k ft AGL, so we`ll
have to see if this stratus starts to dissipate as it moves toward
our area. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the S/SW on Tuesday,
with sustained winds around 10 kt expected during the late morning
and afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG