618
FXUS63 KLMK 052346
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
646 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry for Saturday, with a small chance for sprinkles and/or
  flurries across southern IN and north-central KY. Better chances
  for light rain come on Sunday, with the chance for initial onset
  of precip being freezing rain early Sunday before switching over
  to rain.

* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several
  days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s
  on and off each day as cold fronts move through.

* These fronts will also bring on and off chances for rain and
  wintry precip. Though overall snow totals and QPF looks quite
  light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

About half the region has seen clouds break up and sunshine peaking
through. We will see a bit more clearing over the eastern areas, but
these areas will still see broken skies and not complete clearing.

Tonight, surface high pressure to the south will push east, keeping
surface winds light out of the SSW. Slight WAA will keep temperatures
a few degrees warmer than the previous night. Aloft, troughing will
move through the northern Great Lakes, sending a stalling cold front
into the Ohio Valley. This cold front will likely stall over central
Indiana and Illinois on Saturday. Another shortwave riding along the
broader troughing will swing through the lower Ohio Valley in the
late morning and early afternoon. Low stratus will return to the
region. Very limited moisture in the low levels and troughing
providing lift, may allow for some very light snow flurries (far
north CWA) or sprinkles for a short time in the afternoon. We will
see warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

===== Sunday - Monday Morning =====

Another shortwave will swing through the region on Sunday, forcing
the stalled front to propagate southeast into the lower Ohio Valley.
Ahead of the front, WAA will increase 850mb temperatures, keeping
temperatures just above freezing in the low-levels (warm nose) and
just at or below freezing at the surface. Precip will increase from
west to east in the early morning on Sunday, which will bring a
chance for freezing rain for a few hours over southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. Not expecting much accumulation, but a glaze will
be possible. Shortly after sunrise, temps will begin to warm and
precip will transition to mostly rain.

The cold front is forecasted to push through the region Sunday
night. Due to cooling temperatures and weak CAA, rain will likely
transition to snow. Precip chances will taper off from NW to SE as
the front exits the region Monday morning. Low temperatures on
Monday will be in the 20s, with wind chills in the teens.

Overall, not expecting much in the way of QPF or accumulation with
this system. Looking to see very little to a light glaze of ice
(mostly over the northern portion of the region), a Trace to a few
tenths of an inch of snowfall, and up to 0.1 inches of rainfall.

===== Next Week =====

High pressure will build in behind the cold front on Monday. This
will keep temperatures in the 30s for highs, despite clearing skies.
On Tuesday, a quickly developing low pressure system over southern
Canada will sweep the northern US border, bringing a WAA pattern to
the Ohio Valley. We will remain dry on Tuesday with partly cloudy
skies and warmer temperatures in the 40s.

Shortwave troughing will sweep the Ohio Valley on Wednesday,
bringing the cold front of the aforementioned low pressure system
though. This will increase rain chances for Wednesday. Due to a
strong LLJ and increased pressure gradient, we will also see breezy
to windy conditions on Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 30mph will be
possible. The parent low pressure will begin to occlude late
Wednesday, which will allow for wrapped moisture to lead to
lingering precip chances behind the cold front. A cold air chasing
moisture scenario may set up for Wednesday night into Thursday,
which may bring some snow or wintry mix.

Yet another system looks to develop late next week and swing through
the Ohio Valley, bring another chance for rain and wintry precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

After a gradual scattering of the stratus deck earlier this
afternoon, the back edge of the MVFR ceilings has slowed roughly
along an SDF-BWG line. There is fairly high confidence in the near
term that sites which are currently VFR will remain so, and sites
which are under the MVFR stratus should also remain so. During the
overnight, there is some suggestion in model guidance that the
stratus will try to clear over LEX and RGA; however, given recent
poor performance, will stick with a persistence forecast until that
trend begins to be observed. A front approaching from the north late
tonight should cause winds to stay up between 4-8 kt out of the
south and S-SW.

Ahead of the front early Saturday, there is expected to be a renewed
surge of MVFR stratus toward SDF and HNB. While this may be
overdone, there is at least enough confidence to carry MVFR CIGs at
all sites for most of the day on Saturday. Winds should gradually
veer from S/SW to W/SW during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG