196
FXUS63 KLMK 070931
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
431 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A shortwave will bring rain and snow to some tonight into Monday
  morning. Up to 0.5" is expected in the Bluegrass.

* A couple of systems are expected to pass through the Ohio Valley
  Tuesday night through Thursday.

* Cold air arrives for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 431 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Currently, a cold front stretching from Missouri northeast towards
the Great Lakes is dropping southeast and approaching the Lower Ohio
Valley. This will be located with an inverted surface trough which
will help to keep skies mostly cloudy today. Early light WAA will
push highs into the 40s before the front arrives and veers winds
quickly to the north.

Tonight, CAA will cool temperatures into the mid 30s in southern
Kentucky to the mid 20s in parts of southern Indiana, and as
temperatures are falling, a strong shortwave will push east into the
CWA, resulting in increased chances of precipitation. Across
southern Kentucky, rain is expected with a mix of snow and rain
along the parkways, and mostly snow north of Interstate 64. After
midnight, the transition to snow is expected to continue dropping
south.

There isn`t a lot of moisture with this system, so total liquid
precipitation amounts are expected to be near 0.05" or less. Many
over the northern half of the CWA could see a flurry to a dusting,
but those in and around the Bluegrass could see up to around half of
an inch or so by the time snow ends Monday morning. Impacts are
expected to be limited, but with the threat of a few slick spots on
Monday morning a Special Weather Statement was issued for the
Bluegrass area with the best chance at seeing the higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 431 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday, behind the cold front, high pressure tries to bring clearer
skies, but this could take most of the day before those in southern
Kentucky clear. CAA will limit high temperatures to the 30s, but as
the high passes, WAA returns Monday night, lifting Tuesday`s highs
into the low 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday night through Thursday, northwest flow will bring a couple
quick moving systems to the region. A low pressure system on Tuesday
night or Wednesday is expected to pass over the Great Lakes region.
The system`s trailing cold front could bring light precipitation
before a different low pressure system arrives Thursday. Any
precipitation with the first system is expected to fall as rain, but
the second system could see some snow, but models still don`t have a
good handle on timing or details. Still, impacts are expected to be
limited with these systems.

With the upper ridge amplifying over the West and the upper trough
digging deeper over the East, northwest flow will remain in place
through at least the weekend. This pattern is expected to bring
cooler Canadian air to the Ohio Valley. Falling temperatures are
going to be the focus as we are expected to see highs only reach
into the upper teens and 20s this weekend with lows in the single
digits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Another night of tricky ceilings. There are high level clouds over
BWG and of the the east and northeast including over LEX and RGA.
SDF is currently under VFR ceilings, but IFR ceilings sit just to
the south, north, and west of the airfield, including over HNB. Mist
is limiting visibilities across the region, but reductions are
expected to remain limited. Winds out of the southeast will veer
towards the north as a cold front moves through the region later
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW