103
FXUS63 KLMK 200840
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool and cloudy conditions continue today, with rain chances
  increasing from SW to NE through the day.

* Waves of rain showers, with a few embedded storms, will continue
  tonight through Saturday morning. Severe weather and flooding
  remain unlikely with this system.

* The late weekend and into early next week will see drier
  conditions, before another chance for rain arrives by next
  Tuesday. Temperatures turn cooler by Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low clouds with patches of mist and fog continue across the region
this morning as the overall pattern is relatively unchanged from
yesterday. SDF ACARS soundings continue to show a narrow layer of
moisture trapped at about 500-3k ft AGL, with a stout capping
inversion preventing moisture from mixing out. Temperatures this
morning are fairly uniform in the mid-to-upper 40s across northern
KY and southern IN, with temperatures in the low 50s across southern
KY. While visibilities have bounced as low as 1/2 SM in some areas
this morning, the stronger dense fog signal appears to be just to
the south of the area, though we`ll keep watching area obs later
this morning in case a short-fuse dense fog advisory is needed.

Today, cloudy skies are expected to continue across the area,
limiting daytime heating. A subtle mid-level vort max sliding across
the Ozarks this morning should combine with low-to-mid level
moisture advection and lead to the development of an area of rain
showers near the convergence of the MS/OH Rivers. This band of rain
showers is expected to slide to the ESE later today, resulting in
increasing rain chances, especially south of I-64. There is a chance
that low clouds will begin to scatter out this afternoon as low-
level WAA moves into the area from the SW; however, cloudy skies
should continue as mid-level moisture will continue to provide ample
cloud cover. Temperatures will struggle to warm where low clouds
persist, with the current forecast featuring low-to-mid 50s along
and north of the WK/BG Parkways. Since areas in southern KY should
see the WAA first, there is a better chance of low clouds clearing
and temperatures rising into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s this
afternoon; however, this remains a fairly low confidence temperature
forecast.

Tonight, a more amplified shortwave will slide across the southern
Plains will a northern stream trough slides across the Great Lakes.
This should lead to a sfc low developing over the TX/OK Panhandles,
with a warm front stretching to the east across the mid-Mississippi
Valley. While precipitation is expected to become more scattered
behind the initial wave of showers this afternoon, as the warm front
starts lifting north tonight, a second surge of precipitation is
expected to slide across the region during the early morning hours
Friday. Light S/SE flow overnight combined with plenty of low cloud
cover should keep temperatures fairly steady in the upper 40s and
low-to-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Friday through Saturday Night...

A sfc low near the OK/KS border Friday morning will slide to the
east across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley Friday into Friday
night in concert with its supporting mid- and upper-level shortwave.
Ahead of the sfc low, continued S/SW flow will advect moisture into
the Ohio Valley, with convergence along and isentropic lift across a
developing warm front supporting the development of waves of rain
showers. Model guidance still varies slightly in the sfc low track,
with the GFS/NAM farther north while the ECMWF/GEM is farther south.

The track will have multiple impacts on the Friday and Friday night
forecast. First, a more northerly track will place more (possibly
all) of the CWA into the warm sector on Friday, resulting in
temperatures warming into the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s. A
southerly track would keep more areas in the upper 50s and low 60s
on Friday. Additionally, areas which get into the warm sector Friday
will have less of the forcing mechanism (i.e., the front) available
to support rain showers, resulting in more isolated to scattered
precipitation and lower overall rain totals. The chance for embedded
thunderstorms would also increase the deeper the area gets into the
warm sector. The current forecast leans slightly toward the drier
solutions, with rain totals between now and Saturday now only around
1" across the area.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the sfc low will pass through
the region before clearing the region Saturday afternoon. While
there could be enough instability ahead of the sfc low passage for a
few thunderstorms, overall modest forcing and instability should
curtail the strong storm potential. By the second half of the day on
Saturday, precipitation chances should end from west to east as
drier air moves into the region from the west.

Sunday through Wednesday Night (with a Peek at Thanksgiving)...

The second half of the upcoming weekend into early Monday continues
to look like the best chance for dry weather over the next 7 days.
Northwesterly mid- and upper-level flow is expected to set up over
the eastern half of the CONUS on Sunday, helping to push some drier
air into the region. Seasonable temperatures are expected Sunday,
with highs in the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s after starting in the
mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s.

Sunday night into Monday, a cutoff upper low over CO will eject
eastward across the central Plains, with mid- and upper-level flow
shifting from NW to SW during the day on Monday. This should allow
Gulf moisture to lift northward into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday morning, setting the stage for another wave of
rain as a sfc low cuts across the central CONUS Monday night into
Tuesday night. There is fairly good agreement in medium range model
guidance with this system, with only slight timing differences in
the onset of precipitation between the faster GFS and GEM and the
slower ECMWF. If the faster solutions verify, rain could start
Monday afternoon, though the more likely outcome would keep things
dry until early Tuesday morning. Most ensemble guidance also shows
this system remaining fairly weak, so the potential for severe
storms or heavy rainfall looks low at this time.

It may take 24-36 hours for conditions to clear behind this system
before the main northern stream trough axis pushes across the Great
Lakes, bringing a drier air mass into the Ohio Valley. As a result,
rain showers could linger into Wednesday, with cooler temperatures
likely as CAA spreads across the region.

While model guidance diverges by the end of next week, the general
signal suggests that a modified cP air mass and sfc high pressure
should be moving through the region on Thanksgiving Day. As a
result, the most likely outcome at this time looks like dry weather
with below normal temperatures, consistent with the CPC 8-14 day
outlook, with confidence being higher in below normal temperatures
and slightly lower in dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low stratus with pockets of visibility reductions due to fog and
mist will continue during the first part of the current TAF period.
Would expect CIGs to remain fairly steady in the IFR/LIFR range
through the rest of the overnight and into the morning hours on
Thursday, though there could be occasional improvements to low MVFR.
VIS is more likely to bounce up and down, especially at LEX and RGA,
where area obs suggest there are pockets of LIFR fog, so have
handled this with TEMPO fog mention. Later today, there is a signal
in model guidance for the low stratus layer to briefly scatter out
between 16-20Z, with VFR conditions possible through the evening
hours. Winds should be light and variable across the region.

Another system approaching from the west is expected to bring
scattered showers this afternoon into tonight. Rain rates are
generally expected to be light enough to avoid substantial VIS
reductions. Moisture is expected to build down again tonight,
resulting in a return to low ceilings and visibilities by the end of
the current TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG