909
FXUS63 KLMK 262200
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
500 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds continue through the night.

* Dry cool weather for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* A cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a chance
  for rain, snow, or a mix. Currently, any snow impacts and
  accumulations are expected to be minor across parts of southern
  Indiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 500 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Tonight, a stacked low pressure system embedded in an upper trough
will get ejected to the northeast of the Great Lakes. This will
carry remaining stratus northeast and away from southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, clearing skies. After a short period of time with
clear skies, high level clouds will begin to work in from the west.
As the low level lapse rates become more stable some of the stronger
gusts of today will weaken, but a decently strong pressure gradient
will keep breezy conditions out of the west for most of the night.
Strong CAA is expected to drop temperatures into the mid 20s to low
30s.

Thanksgiving and Friday, upper ridging pushes surface high pressure
closer to the region. This should clear skies by the early afternoon
on Thursday, but with the center of the high not passing the CWA
until Friday night, cooler air will continue to get advected into
the area. Highs on Thanksgiving in the upper 30s to mid 40s will
only make it to the mid 30s and low 40s on Friday. Lows Thursday and
Friday night will likely range from the upper teens to mid 20s. The
passing surface high on Friday night will allow winds to ease which
would normally lead to strong radiative cooling, but cloud cover
ahead of the next system could limit some of this cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Saturday, a shortwave dives south over the Western Plains and
strengthens an upper trough before lifting a surface low from near
the Texas Panhandle towards Gary, Indiana Saturday night.

Ahead of the front, during the day Saturday, warm air advection will
lift temperatures into the 40s to near 50 before a trailing cold
front arrives in the CWA sometime Saturday night to early Sunday.
Model guidance has the same overall idea, but there is a spread in
the details. Yesterday, this looked like an all rain event with snow
remaining north of Indianapolis. Then last night, snow made it
farther south to near the Ohio River, and today we get a mix of both
solutions. The GFS is quicker bringing snow showers to near the Ohio
River late Saturday night, but the NAM and Euro keep most of the
snow north of the CWA. The Euro remains slower with the system`s
arrival. Believe this is a better solution currently from a timing
perspective because high pressure ahead of the system means there
will be a lot of low level dry air to overcome. Model soundings
support this. Even the GFS has lots of low level dry air during
periods it shows snow. If snow does materialize across southern
Indiana, currently believe around a quarter of an inch will be
possible, and with much of the guidance only kissing 32 degrees,
impacts are expected to be limited with warmer ground temperatures.
Model soundings show now possibility of a melting and refreezing. P-
type will either by rain, snow, or a mix. Precipitation should be
out of the area by at least mid-day Sunday.

Sunday night, surface high pressure and CAA behind the front will
bring lows in the 20s to the region. Expecting a dry Monday before
good agreement among the models brings better light snow chances
from a system out of the south Monday night. The question with this
system will be how much moisture will be available. This system
should be east of the area early Tuesday.

The current forecast continues to keep precipitation chances way too
high from Saturday through Wednesday. There will be dry days during
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A broken to
overcast layer of low VFR ceilings extends west into central
Illinois, but into the overnight hours, skies will clear as the
clouds move off the the east. Gusty west winds will begin to ease
slightly tonight, but gusty conditions will continue through the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW