894
FXUS63 KLMK 250538
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1238 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers tonight through Tuesday
  night.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* A lot of uncertainty remains around the weekend as the chance for
  unsettled weather increases.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Regional VAD Wind Profiles reveal a 35kt LLJ over the region this
evening, which has resulted in at least some weak low level moisture
transport. However, the stronger LLJ core is over Arkansas, but is
expected to strengthen overnight across our area as the sfc low
shifts northeast into the Ohio Valley. Scattered light rain is noted
on LVX radar, though a wider view from the regional mosaic shows
much more widespread rain shower coverage across northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. We`ll see our precip coverage
ramp up overnight and tomorrow morning as the LLJ increases our
moisture advection and low level forcing. Model soundings show
little to no instability, but perhaps a few ticks of lightning and
rumbles of thunder could be observed if we are able to realize any
elevated instability. Overall forecast remains in good shape, with
just some minor tweaks to incorporate 00z model guidance suite.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 431 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tonight, messy zonal flow will push a surface high farther off the
East Coast into the Atlantic as it pushes a surface high northeast
from the Ozarks. Extending south of the low, an occluded front will
approach southern Indiana and central Kentucky. In the southern
winds ahead of the front, precipitable water values will peak around
1.25", increasing rain chances during the night. Model sounding show
a low level stable dry layer with a deep saturated layer above it.
LCLs are expected to be fairly high with nearly no instability. Rain
showers are expected to increase throughout the night. Lows will
likely range from the upper 40s to the north to mid 50s across
southern Kentucky.

Tomorrow morning, the axis of heavier PWATs, around 1.25", will be
over the CWA with the heaviest rain east of the CWA by early
tomorrow afternoon. Model soundings continue to look very stable
with deep layer moisture. Instability continues to be minimal,
leading to more rain showers with no severe weather expected. Warm
air advection with southerly gusts reaching to around 25 mph will
warm highs into the 60s.

Tomorrow evening, rain showers are expected to become more scattered
and continue for the rest of the night before finally ending
Wednesday morning as a secondary cold front pushes east through the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 431 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

On Wednesday, as a secondary north to south oriented cold front
pushes east through the region, westerly winds gusting to 20-25 mph
ahead of an approaching surface high will usher in much cooler
temperatures. Even under sunny skies, highs only reach into the low
40s to low 50s, and by Thursday and Friday, they only reach the
upper 30s to mid 40s before falling into the upper teens Thursday
night.

Next weekend remains uncertain as model guidance lacks agreement,
but as return flow is expected on the back side of an exiting
surface high, warmer temperatures and more moisture is expected to
bring a return of precipitation to the CWA sometime during the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

A 40kt LLJ has overspread the region at this hour and will bring
LLWS to the terminals. We are currently sitting with VFR CIGs and
VIS as lower CIGs and rain will steadily move in from the west.
Expecting to see MVFR CIGs by sunrise over the northern half of the
region. Southern areas will have a few hours after sunrise before
they see MVFR CIGs. Northern sites may also see high-end IFR after
sunrise. The precip shield will work NE over the region through the
morning. After this exits, isolated to scattered showers will remain
through the evening. Overnight, low CIGs will steadily push east and
lift.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...SRW