029
FXUS63 KLMK 051533
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1033 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some slick spots are possible this morning for areas that received
  light snow overnight, mainly for far southern KY and the Lake
  Cumberland areas.

* Dry weather expected for today, but with below normal temperatures
  once again.

* Mostly dry for Saturday, with a small chance for sprinkles and/or
  flurries across southern IN and north-central KY. Better chances
  for light rain come on Sunday, with the chance for initial onset
  of precip being freezing rain early Sunday before switching over
  to plain rain.

* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several
  days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s
  on and off each day as cold fronts move through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Looking at satellite, we are beginning to see clearing in our far
northwestern areas and clouds breaking up in northern areas. Still
on track to see some sun peaking through today. A much needed break
after many cloudy days. As low stratus sticks around and the low
levels remain saturated, we could see very light flurries or mist
depending on local temperatures. Previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Early this morning, OHX and LVX radars show the last few bands of
light snow crossing the Lake Cumberland area as the better forcing
surrounding the sfc low shifts east into North Carolina and
Virginia. KY Mesonet cameras in that area show snow falling, with
sfc temps hovering just below freezing. We`ll see these last bands
of precip depart our forecast area before sunrise as the low level
frontogenesis moves away. There will be a good chance for some slick
spots on roads this morning, especially any bridges or overpasses
and untreated roadways.

For today, dry weather is expected across the region as broad sfc
high pressure expands under the progressive zonal flow. It is a
cloudy start this morning, but as the deeper moisture shifts over
the mid-Atlantic today, we should be able to see at least some
decent clearing for a portion of the forecast area later on this
afternoon. best chance for clouds to linger through the day will be
east of I-65, especially in the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass
regions. We should be able to see quite a bit of sun across southern
IN and areas west of I-65. Temps remain below normal once again,
with highs only in the 30s for most. Some of our south-central KY
counties could approach 40 too.

For tonight, we`ll see clouds build back across the region, but dry
conditions are expected to continue. Temps are forecast to drop into
the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

===== This Weekend =====

As we head into the weekend, the the primary speed max in the upper
jet core will be shifting over the mid-Atlantic throughout Saturday.
Sfc high pressure will be across the Gulf Coast, and a cold front
will be passing through the Great Lakes region, which will be
getting support form an upper shortwave over Canada. Expect mostly
dry day, with southwest flow helping to increase WAA across the
area. As a result, we forecast high temps to hit the 40s for many
folks.

The cold front will remain near the Great Lakes through the day,
though there is a small signal for a quick-passing subtle impulse
riding in the mid-level flow, which could spit out some sprinkles or
snow flurries on Saturday. The NAM is the most aggressive of the
guidance, and appears to be latching on to a weak mid-level vort
lobe and pocket of lift that could be swinging through the region.
However, there is varying magnitudes of saturation in the profile
when looking at different model soundings, and there`s great
uncertainty on whether we will even have enough saturation up to the
DGZ to favor flurries or very light snow chances. Additionally, the
NAM appears to have backed off on this with the 00z run, when
compared to the 18z run. It`s a low confidence scenario, and would
end up being very minor, but did draw in some 10% PoPs mainly north
of the KY Pkwys for Saturday. After coordinating with other WFOs,
will add mention of some flurries/sprinkles on Saturday.

The primary focus for the weekend will be on Sunday, as another
shortwave pinwheels around the primary upper low over Canada, which
will drive the sfc cold front through the Ohio Valley. PoPs will
increase across the region through the morning hours. If precip
arrives around or before 12z, we could be dealing with a short
period of freezing rain before we switch over to just plain rain
when sfc temps warm above freezing. Temps could peak in the low 40s
north of the KY Pkwys, but south-central KY could end up closer to
50F thanks to additional WAA ahead of the boundary. Overall QPF with
this wave is expected to be rather light.

PoPS will taper off from west to east Sunday night. We`ll see a
stronger CAA regime filter in behind the front as strong sfc high
pressure builds across the Midwest. This will likely lead to temps
crashing into the upper teens across southern IN Sunday night.


===== Next Week =====

Dry but cold weather is expected on Monday as sfc high pressure
moves across the Ohio Valley. Temps will remain in the 30s, with the
northern half of the forecast area possibly remaining at or below
freezing for the day. Dry weather continues for Tuesday as well,
though with temps back in the 40s as we tap into WAA pattern.
However, during the day, another upper shortwave will pinwheel
around the upper low over Canada, which will support a sfc low to
deepen as it tracks rapidly from Montana to the Great Lakes. This
sfc low will bring additional rain chances to the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday.

Due to how deep the sfc low may be, we`ll likely see a response in
our sfc winds increasing on Tuesday night and especially Wednesday.
We could see SW wind gusts 25-30 mph Wednesday afternoon. With
strong WAA in place, temps could reach the upper 40s to low 50s.
This means that all precip on Wednesday is expected to be rain,
though as the sfc low shifts east of the Great Lakes and over New
England, strong CAA quickly follows on the heels of the system, and
we may not be able to shut off the precip before the colder air
filters in. If so, we`ll see precip switch over to at least a wintry
mix Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low stratus remains over the area this morning, with MVFR flight
categories lingering through much of the morning hours. We should
see decent clearing this afternoon, with terminals forecast to
return to VFR. Clouds may build back over the region this evening
and overnight however. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today with
winds becoming more southwesterly by the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP