204
FXUS63 KLMK 130909
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
409 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry and mild weather likely into Saturday.

* Brief light rain or sprinkles possible Friday, though most stay
  dry. There is a higher chance for rain Saturday night.

* Unsettled weather pattern returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Conditions remain mostly clear and cool early this morning.
Temperatures vary quite a bit across just central KY, with more
exposed sites where the wind has stayed up a bit in the low to mid
40s. Meanwhile, our coolest sheltered KY Mesonet stations (e.g.
Harrison and Meade counties) have dipped to near or below the
freezing mark. Temperatures will mostly settle into the 30s for lows
this morning. Upper sky cover will increase through the morning
hours with cirrus drifting overhead in NW flow.

High pressure at the surface will build east across the region
today, providing light winds and dry weather. Temperatures are
forecast to rebound into the upper 50s (Bluegrass) to mid 60s
(southern KY) this afternoon. Tonight will feature mostly clear
skies, light winds, and lows in the 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Friday and Friday Night...

A weak mid-level shortwave is forecast to slide just north of the
area on Friday, bringing an increase in cloud cover. Low-level
ridging shifts east of the region, and a modest increase in SW flow
advects warmer air into the region. Brief light rain or sprinkles
are possible, though most will likely stay dry. Afternoon highs are
expected to range from the lower 60s in the Bluegrass to the lower
70s near Bowling Green.

By Friday night, a strong Canadian low pressure system will pull a
cold front southeastward through the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Stronger SW flow will help lead to a much milder night, with
lows in the low to mid 50s.


Saturday through Mid Next Week...

Warm SW flow continues into Saturday ahead of the quickly
approaching cold front. Low pressure is forecast to continue
deepening southeast across Canada and into the Northeast, while
dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley Saturday night. Rain
should hold off until later Saturday evening and overnight. And even
Saturday night, the rain looks relatively light. Prior to fropa,
temperatures will likely warm into the low to mid 70s.

Temperatures will return back to the 50s and low 60s on Sunday
behind the cold front. High pressure quickly builds in behind the
departing front, and cool, dry weather should linger into Monday.

Model consensus next week then features a compact upper level wave
riding over the Rockies before racing east across the central part
of the country, perhaps inducing brief lee cyclogenesis in the
process. A weak low may spin up out over the Plains, with a warm
front eventually stretching into the Lower OH Valley by Tuesday. We
could certainly see some warm advection/isentropic ascent showers by
the Monday night-Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR with dry weather and just some SCT high clouds during this
forecast period. Winds will remain light, generally out of the west,
as sfc high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW