360
FXUS63 KLMK 151411
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty
    showers and storms possible next week as well, particularly on
    Monday, though confidence in their development remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Anticyclonic flow around surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
has resulted in easterly flow for much of the region this morning.
Light but sustained easterly winds can be anticipated through the
day. Still expecting another warm afternoon with highs ranging from
mid 80s to low 90s, but lower dewpoints (50s) and sustained light
winds should help make it feel a bit more tolerable. Forecast
remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Diffuse and slow-moving cold front is draped somewhere near the
Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, with dewpoints dropping
fairly nicely behind it while moisture pools just ahead of the
boundary.

With the continued southward progress of the front and easterly flow
around sfc high pressure over Lake Huron, we can expect slightly
cooler and markedly less humid conditions compared to Friday.
Shortwave ridging aloft and plentiful sunshine will limit the
cooldown, with max temps this afternoon actually just on the high
side of climo, even touching 90 around Bowling Green. The more
noticeable chance will be dewpoints in the lower-mid 50s from
Louisville into the Bluegrass region, and even most of south-central
KY should see dewpoints in the lower 60s. The low dewpoints will
allow temps tonight to drop a few degrees below normal for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

On Sunday, warm air advection will return to the Lower Ohio
Valley. An upper ridge over the eastern United States and a surface
low over the Ohio Valley will keep skies over the CWA clear. Given
the conditions, high temperatures will reach into the mid to upper
90s across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. A few in the east,
the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions, may only see the low 90s.

The surface low, centered in the Northern Atlantic, will keep low
level flow funneling Gulf of Mexico moisture northward towards the
CWA, and by Sunday evening, precipitable water values in south
central Kentucky will begin increasing to over 1.5". This trend will
continue as PWATs reach to near and over 2" by Monday evening. The
highest values will flow the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
This increase in moisture will increase precipitation chances Sunday
through Tuesday with the highest chances on Monday. All the warm air
will increase instability in the weakly sheared environment. Some
model guidance is showing multiple shortwaves riding northward on
the anticyclonic flow. This could trigger some convective activity,
but feel the NBM`s coverage of precipitation is likely overdone.

As high pressure remains over the Southeast, the story this week
will remain the warm weather. Highs in the 90s remain into next
weekend. Low temperatures on most nights will only drop into the 70s
for most. The lucky could see the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Weak cold
front (mainly a dewpoint front) draped across BWG will push into
Tennessee this morning, giving way to high pressure centered over
Lake Huron. Light NE winds will veer to due east and increase to
around 10 kt by mid-morning, with gusts approaching 20 kt at LEX.
Boundary-layer will decouple with the loss of heating, so look for
light east winds tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS