062
FXUS63 KLMK 051050
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry and sunny weather continues through the weekend.

*  Shower and storm chances increase early next week ahead of a cold
   front arriving Tuesday night.

*  Cooler and more seasonal temperatures arrive by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

We now have upper ridging over the eastern CONUS and troughing over
the western half. A large area of surface high pressure remains
under the upper ridge centered over the Appalachians and of to the
east into the Atlantic. The Lower Ohio Valley remains under this
influence with a generally southerly wind in place as anticyclonic
winds wrap around the high. Quiet weather sticks around for one last
day. Mostly sunny skies with light warm air advection will raise
temperatures into the low to mid 80s across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.

Tonight, the night will begin under clear skies, but as southern
flow begins to lift dew points into the low 60s and precipitable
water values higher over the western half of Kentucky and into
southern Indiana, cloud cover is expected to increase during the
second half of the night. Lows should fall into the upper 50s to low
to mid 60s. This is going to be dependent on how much cloud cover
materializes as light warm air advection is expected to remain in
place overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Guidance continues to be consistent as the upper ridge slides east
off the coast of Maine early on Monday. In the axis of the trough
trailing the ridge, a closed low develops off the coast of
California and separates from the trough by Monday night into
Tuesday. At the surface, not much changes, the high continues to sit
off the Atlantic Coast, continuing to funnel moisture into the CWA
ahead of an approaching cold front extending from a surface low way
up in northern Quebec.

On Monday, as precipitable water values climb to 1.5-2" scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop, mainly along and
west of Interstate 65 during the afternoon and evening hours. A line
of lighter showers could move through during the morning, but the
better chances come later in the day. MLCAPE values look to be
around 600 J/kg or so for the afternoon. Currently, shear remains
weak and rainfall totals on Monday remain relatively low.

By Monday night into Tuesday, as the cold front gets closer,
precipitation chances spread east over the whole CWA. Rainfall
totals increase before beginning to taper off Tuesday night as the
cold front pushes southeast through the region. Total rainfall
amounts currently look to be just under an inch in our southwest
Indiana counties to around 1.5". Some isolated locations could see
over 2".

Ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected to be in the low
to mid 80s on Monday, 70s on Tuesday, and by Wednesday, a few 60s
could make it into southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky. Most of
the CWA will see the low 70s with mid to upper 70s possible across
southern Kentucky.

Behind the front, cold air advection ahead of a passing surface high
dropping southeast through the Great Lakes will keep the 70s around
for Thursday under mostly sunny skies, but as the high passes, weak
warm air advection arrives on Friday, lifting temperatures to the
mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday. Sunday will see the return
of some 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period.
A few cumulus are expected to develop later today with variable
winds generally out of the south. In the SDF extended period, a low
chance of showers will begin to work towards the airfield lowering
VFR ceilings. Better precipitation chances remain to the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW