533
FXUS63 KLMK 151901
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty
    showers and storms possible Sunday into early next week, with
    mostly dry conditions likely from mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Quiet and dry weather continues this afternoon as high pressure over
the Great Lakes region gradually slides eastward into the
northeastern U.S. Temperatures have warmed up quite a bit from
morning lows though there is a bit of a T/Td gradient across the
region. Where the low level moisture is a bit higher, we`ve seen a
cu-field develop, though strong capping will keep vertical growth in
the cumulus field to a minimum.

Skies will clear out overnight as the sun begins to set and we
should stay clear into tomorrow morning. Surface flow will take on a
more southerly component during the day tomorrow which will help
advect in warmer temps and higher dewpoints. Peak heat indices
during the afternoon tomorrow will likely range from 97 to 103, with
the highest values across our southwestern CWA and larger urban
areas. We`ll likely stay just short of heat advisory criteria
(heat index of 105), so no headlines planned at this time.

The capping inversion tomorrow will be a bit weaker compared to
today, particularly toward southern KY where increased low level
moisture will erode much of the cap, so showers and storms remain a
possibility during the afternoon hours. Overall activity will be
scattered given weak/subtle lifting mechanisms at the surface.
Organized severe weather is not anticipated with storms tomorrow,
but higher DCAPEs (~1,000 J/KG) could support gusty winds in wet
microbursts. Heavy rainfall will also be likely in showers/storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Above normal temperatures and muggy conditions are anticipated next
week as a very anomalous dome of warm air associated with a strong
upper level ridge remains anchored to much of the eastern CONUS.
Afternoon highs Monday into Friday of next week will likely range
from low to mid 90s, with a few locations (particularly bigger urban
areas) nearing upper 90s on a couple of days toward the end of the
week. The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in
peak heat indices ranging from the low 90s to upper 90s during the
week. The LMK CWA heat advisory criteria starts at 105 degree heat
indices, which looks like we`ll fall short of based on the latest
blend of data. For prolonged heat events (typically 4 consecutive
days or more) that could have impacts, this criteria can be lowered,
though there is some doubt we will have a long stretch of
consecutive days with impactful heat indices (i.e., Tuesday and
Wednesday may only see peak heat indices in low/mid 90s) to warrant
heat headlines at this point in time. This will continue to be
monitored in subsequent forecast updates.

During the upcoming week, there could be a couple of chances for
showers/storms to provide some temporary relief from the heat. A
plume of moisture and unstable air may filter into the region Monday
and result in scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. The axis of moisture/instability looks to shifts
westward on Tuesday as the upper ridge becomes more elongated and
oriented from the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic. This will
unfortunately limit any sort of rainfall potential over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky from mid to late week as strong
subsidence aloft and capping in the low/mid levels suppresses
convective efforts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Easterly winds will
remain sustained around 8-13kts through the day with occasional
gusts near 20kts. Cu-field will also be prevalent in areas where
higher low level moisture resides. Skies will clear out overnight
and winds will go light with steady veering to the south tomorrow
morning after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Sunday night for INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...DM