687
FXUS63 KLMK 150550
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1250 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty southwest winds lead to warm Saturday.

* Brief light rain showers possible Saturday night, mainly east of I-
  65.

* Cool and dry Sunday and Monday behind the passage of a cold front.

* Rain likely returns to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 447 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Tonight, the axis of a positively tilted upper ridge moves east over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky while a decent pressure
gradient remains at the surface between high pressure to the
Southeast and low pressure centered over the western Great Lakes.
Southwest winds between 10-20 mph will keep temperatures relatively
warm, only falling into the low 50s to low 60s.

Tomorrow, a surface low gets pushed southeast over the northern
Great Lakes while dragging a cold front southeast over the Midwest
as it heads towards the CWA. The pressure gradient ahead of the
front will continue to drive WAA and moisture into the area. Went
above guidance on high temperatures as 25-35 mph gusts are possible.
Believe most areas will reach into the 70s, including the upper 70s.
Dew points are expected to reach to either side of 60 as rain
chances increase into Saturday night ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Saturday night, most models continue to lower precipitation chances
and rainfall amounts with the passage of the cold front. The best
chances remain along the eastern side of the CWA. Any rainfall would
be light with only a few hundreths possible in the stable
environment. Model sounding profiles keep moisture below the DGZ for
much of time, and with some dry air at the surface, wouldn`t count
on much rain.

Behind the front on Sunday, skies clear as upper ridging and surface
high pressure return. Cooling northwest winds limit highs to the mid
50s to low 60s over the southern Kentucky. As the center of the
surface high passes early Monday, winds begin to veer, losing CAA,
but mostly clear skies continue with similar temperatures.

Monday night, a surface low/trough is expected to surge east of the
Rockies towards the CWA while flow from the northwest and from the
Gulf feed the system moisture. This is expected to bring a better
chance of widespread rain to the region. Currently, expecting
between 0.25-0.75 inches in total Monday night through Tuesday.
Model soundings continue to show a stable inversion with high LCLs.
The bulk of the rain is expected to taper off early Tuesday before a
mostly dry day expected on Wednesday.

On Wednesday to Wednesday night, a large upper trough digs south
through southern California and develops into a stacked low pressure
system over Texas by Thursday night. Then, the system ejects to the
northeast and drags cold front towards the CWA, arriving Friday or
Friday night (depending on your model of choice). Current data
continues to keep this as an all rain event with very stable low
levels and high LCLs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Prevailing VFR likely through much of this forecast period, though
some MVFR conditions will be possible at LEX/RGA between 00-06Z
Sunday.

BKN clouds near 5 kft are likely to continue to fill in across the
region during the early morning hours. We`ll also see SCT-BKN cirrus
continue to stream in from the NW. A tightening pressure gradient
will yield gradually increasing SSW winds through sunrise, with
winds expected to become gusty after 14Z Saturday. Gusts of 20-25
kts are then likely through the afternoon hours.

A narrow band of rain showers should accompany a cold frontal
passage after 00Z Sunday, with it marching southeast through the
area during the late evening and overnight hours. LEX/RGA have the
highest chance (50-60%) at seeing brief rain showers.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW