046
FXUS63 KLMK 011857
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Cold November rain overspreads the region through this evening
   and into the overnight. Sunday trends drier through the day.

*  Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between .1" to .6",
   with the higher amounts in KY, and lower amounts in IN.

*  A drier and slightly milder pattern sets up for much of next of
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Closed upper low will sink into the mid Mississippi River Valley
through tonight, with deeper moisture pooling into our region ahead
of this feature. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is already passing
through the CWA, with cool advection taking over behind the system.
Temps will likely begin falling across our western CWA before the
typical peak heating window this afternoon. In fact, they already
are. Temps currently in the 55 to 60 degree range will fall into the
low and mid 40s tonight.

The atmospheric column has been steadily saturating through the day,
and recently picked up our first ob of measurable rainfall off the
Logan County Mesonet site. Expect areas along and west of I-65 to
gradually fill in with precip through sunset, and then more
widespread coverage through the overnight. We`ll carry categorical
pops over the KY portion of the CWA with high end likely to
categorical pops over the IN counties. Overall, QPF will be fairly
light, however we have seen a uptick in amounts across southern KY
over the past 36 to 48 hours. There could be a swath of .5" to .7"
amounts across our SW CWA, with most everyone else expected to see
between .1" and .5" through Sunday morning.

The closed upper low rotates through the TN Valley through tomorrow,
with our widespread rainfall ending, and more scattered coverage
lingering in our SE CWA. Most of the area will be drying out through
the afternoon, however the Lake Cumberland region and I-75 corridor
could still be holding onto a few light showers through the
afternoon. Dry conditions take hold once again by evening with the
system departing the area. Nothing lasts forever, even cold November
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Sunday Night - Thursday Night...

Closed upper low will rotate out of our region into the SE CONUS
Sunday night, leaving our area dry for what will likely be an
extended period of time going into next week. Progressive zonal flow
aloft takes hold through the early to mid week time frame with
surface high pressure also in control. This will yield an overall
dry stretch with temperatures trending a little milder each day.

On Wednesday, a clipper system moves through the Great Lakes region,
which will drag a dry cool front through our area. Could get pretty
mild ahead of this feature (highs 65 to 70) for what will likely be
the warmest of the long term. Temps fall off just a bit on Thursday
behind the front back to the low and mid 60s, but we begin to
recover again heading toward Friday as southerly flow kicks in once
again.

Friday - Saturday...

The next chance for some gusty showers arrives on Friday into the
first part of Saturday as a shortwave trough and its associated
surface low move across the Great Lakes region. We`ll see deeper
moisture pool ahead of the trailing cold front and upper trough axis
into our area. Timing of this system could still change a bit,
although models seem to agree a bit more than yesterday that
sometime Friday into Friday evening will be the main chance.
Saturday looks drier with only a minor cool down behind the lead
cool front. Another system quick on the heels could arrive for the
late weekend timeframe, and may end up being a little more robust.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A slow moving disturbance will bring deteriorating conditions from
our current VFR later this evening through the overnight. Ceilings
will gradually lower into the MVFR range as the atmospheric column
continues to saturate today. Expect MVFR by early evening at BWG,
and late evening elsewhere at the other sites. Perhaps some brief
IFR will occur (most likely at BWG) but not enough confidence to put
in prevailing TAF at this time.

Light rain chances will also increase during this time across the
area which will likely reduce vis into the MVFR category through
much of the overnight. A surface cold front will also be sliding
through the area, so expect surface winds to take on a NW to N to
NNE component with that progression. Things will dry up tomorrow
morning, with ceilings trying to improve back to VFR through the
morning hours toward midday. Surface winds will also veer around to
a light NE and then E component by then.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS