842
FXUS63 KLMK 040905
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
405 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  The next chance of rain will come Friday as a cold front brings
   showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms to the area.

*  Another cold front late this weekend could bring highs in the 40s
   early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

We begin the day with zonal upper flow with surface high pressure
centered just off to our southeast, and after some patchy early fog
to start the day, mostly sunny skies with some passing cirrus will
last for the rest of the day. Light WAA will help get highs in to
the low to mid 60s.

Tonight, zonal flow will push the surface high farther to the east
as a advancing cold front moves closer to the Lower Ohio Valley. The
increasing pressure gradient will keep southwest winds around 5-10
mph with gusts to near 20 mph at times. This will limit fog
formation as temperature remain in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Wednesday to Thursday night, dry weather continues as a dry cold
front continues dropping southeast towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. Besides some passing clouds and a wind shift from
the southwest to north by Wednesday night, the front will remain
mostly uneventful. High temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday will only make it to the upper 50s to low 60s across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Southern Kentucky is
expected to be warmer in the upper 60s. As a surface high passes
east through central Indiana on Tuesday, our winds will continue
veering all the way to the south by Thursday night.

Friday, zonal flow begins to see some amplification in the upper
trough as a surface low, just north of the Great Lakes, drags a
trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley some time on Friday.
Models show discrepancies in timing, ranging from early to late
Friday. Overall, instability continues to be weak with MLCAPE values
under 500 J/kg. The deep layer shear is there with some models and
locations showing better low level shear than others. Not too
concerned at this point as it appears showers and gusty winds are
likely, but low level shear could increase a limited tornado threat
if surface backed winds could become surface based.

Into the weekend and beyond, a much more amplified trough with
another cold front will approach the region during the late weekend.
Currently precipitation chances look limited but the better chances
for precipitation remain along the northern half of the CWA, but
it`s the CAA behind the front that will likely drop highs into the
40s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

High pressure will keep winds light and skies mostly clear. This
will produce some areas of patchy fog this morning. Visibility will
likely bounce in areas of shallow fog. Fog will clear after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW