112
FXUS63 KLMK 222055
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
355 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and mild conditions today through Monday.

* A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing a chance for
  showers and a few storms. Severe weather is not likely with this
  system.

* Cooler shot of air will arrive for Thanksgiving Day, bringing a
  small chance for light rain/snow mix on Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

A sfc cold front is pushing through the Southeast US this afternoon,
with light northerly winds in its wake over the OH Valley. Low
stratus lingers across much of central KY, while southern IN is now
enjoying mostly clear skies. These clouds will gradually scatter out
from north to south through late this evening as drier air filters
in from the north. A weak upper shortwave over Illinois will also
bring some brief high clouds across the region this evening.

Tonight through Sunday, ridging builds in from the west. A drier
airmass will allow us to finally trend toward clearer skies late
tonight and on Sunday. However, enough lingering low-level moisture
should result in some patchy dense fog tonight and early Sunday. Fog
may be able to expand across a large enough area (before drier air
moves in from the north) to necessitate a Dense Fog Advisory, but
confidence remains low on areal extent at this time. Temperatures
will dip into the mid 30s to around 40 early Sunday morning.

Sunday looks pleasant with cool air, light winds, and high pressure
building in. Look for more sunshine with afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 50s in southern IN and north-central KY, and low 60s in
southern KY.

Sfc high pressure slips off to the east Sunday night, and mostly
clear skies and light winds will allow temps to tumble into the 30s
early Monday morning. We will have a few more high clouds streaming
in Monday morning ahead of the next low pressure system off to the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Monday - Tuesday...

On Monday, high pressure shifts to the East Coast ahead of low
pressure rotating across the Plains. We will stay mainly dry through
most of Monday, as a lot of the richer moisture and stronger forcing
stays off to our west and southwest. However, we will see strong low-
level moisture transport and WAA overspread the area Monday night
along with a 50+ kt SW LLJ. The warm conveyor belt streams northeast
across the Ohio Valley ahead of the weakening low pressure system
lifting across the Midwest.

We`ll have widespread rain move across the region Monday night into
Tuesday. Very weak elevated instability could support a few storms,
mainly across south-central Kentucky. Expect warmer conditions with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.


Tuesday Night - Friday...

After a weak cold front moves through on Tuesday, isolated to
scattered light precip could linger into Tuesday night. Overall,
conditions will trend drier heading into Wednesday. A much stronger
low pressure system developing across the Great Lakes and southern
Canada will drag a second, but stronger cold front through the
region on Wednesday. Precip, if any, looks very light. However, we
will see much colder air stream into the region for Thanksgiving and
Black Friday.

Cold high pressure builds in from the northwest late in the week.
Lows Thanksgiving morning should be in the mid/upper 20s. Low/mid
20s look more likely Friday morning. Highs on Thanksgiving Day and
Black Friday will likely be limited to the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

High pressure continues to build in from the west this evening as
drier air filters in from the north. Low stratus will gradually
scatter out from north to south this afternoon and evening. The
primary forecast uncertainty comes from the exact timing of clouds
becoming FEW/SCT. There is also a signal for some fog overnight into
early Sunday morning, but confidence is relatively low on how
widespread that might be due to dry air advection. Winds will be
relatively light out of the N/NW through the period, but will be
more light and variable during the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW