137
FXUS63 KLMK 151118
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
618 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and breezy today, with highs in the 70s.

* Brief light rain showers possible tonight along a cold front,
  especially east of I-65.

* Cool and dry Sunday and Monday.

* Widespread light to moderate rainfall expected late Monday night
  and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A cold front associated with a potent storm system over central
Canada is draped southwest through the Upper Midwest and central
Plains early this morning. Moisture advection via 25-30 kt WSW flow
at 850 mb is helping clouds fill in over southern IN and central KY.
Given the increasing cloud cover and steady SW winds at the surface,
temperatures will be unusually mild this morning.

Today, an upper level trough is forecast to dig southeast over
Ontario. A deepening sfc low is forecast to move southeast across
the Great Lakes beneath the left exit region of an upper jet streak
over the Upper Midwest. The cold front will push southeast through a
good portion of IL and IN today. Out ahead of it, we will get a very
warm and breezy day. Temperatures will surge into the 70s this
afternoon, and the Bowling Green region in the SW CWA could make it
into the upper 70s. BWG could easily come within a couple of degrees
of the daily record high of 80 set in 1931.

Even shallow mixing this afternoon will tap into stronger SW flow.
SW winds will increase to 10-20 mph today, with afternoon gusts
likely peaking around 30-35 mph.

Tonight, the cold front sweeps through the area. Hi-res model
guidance suggests a narrow line of showers will move southeast
through southern IN and the eastern half of KY. Some very weak
instability (< 200 J/kg MUCAPE) could be present in southeastern IN
and the KY Bluegrass Region. However, there`s only around a 10%
chance for a thunderstorm. But the northeastern and eastern portions
of the forecast area will have the best chance at seeing a brief
moderate shower. QPF is light due to limited moisture and very
limited residence time of showers at any one location. Winds veer
northwesterly early Sunday morning, with temperatures settling into
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Sunday and Monday continue to look cool and dry with high pressure
building in from the NW in the wake of the cold front. Expect mostly
clear skies, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Lows Monday
morning will likely dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s with high
pressure in place.

Monday night, an upper level shortwave trough and sfc reflection
will move across the central Plains toward the MS Valley. A warm
front may set up west to east in the vicinity of central KY Monday
night into Tuesday. Increasing SW flow moisture advection and
isentropic lift ahead of the approaching wave will likely produce
widespread rain late Mon night and Tue. Confidence is low on any sfc-
based instability, but there is a chance for thunderstorms during
this period as well. The ECMWF EFI for CAPE is notably high at 0.7-
0.8, increasing confidence in at least some elevated instability.

Tuesday night through Friday night remains a lower confidence
forecast. However, this period does look fairly unsettled with
potential for moderate to heavy rainfall at times. Some guidance
suggests a quasi-stationary boundary left behind by the Tue system
could linger over the forecast area throughout the midweek time
frame. This boundary would likely lift north of the area by Thursday
in response to a deepening trough over the southern CONUS.
Occasional bouts of rain showers are possible Tue night through Thu
with that boundary lingering in the region. However, confidence is
low on the timing and coverage of showers.

Medium range guidance continues to key in on a strong upper level
trough over the southern and central Plains, which should then eject
northeast toward the Ohio Valley late next week. A potentially
dynamic low pressure system could bring windy conditions and perhaps
heavy rainfall with a cold frontal passage around the Friday time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Prevailing VFR likely through much of this forecast period, though
some MVFR conditions will be possible at LEX/RGA between 00-06Z
Sunday.

BKN clouds near 5 kft are likely to continue during the morning
hours, with some scattering from west to east this afternoon. A
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing SW winds this
morning, with winds expected to become gusty after 14Z. Gusts of 25+
kts are then likely through the afternoon hours.

A narrow band of rain showers will accompany a cold frontal passage
after 00Z Sunday, with it marching southeast through the area during
the late evening and overnight hours. LEX/RGA have the highest
chance (50-60%) at seeing brief rain showers, but SDF could see a
quick shower as well. Winds will veer NW behind the cold front early
Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW