016
FXUS63 KLMK 100820
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread snow showers and snow squalls will move southeastward
  through the region today bringing minor accumulations of snow
  mainly to the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.

* Very cold weather is expected today and Tuesday with temperatures
  this morning in the lower-mid 20s and lows Tuesday morning in the
  upper teens to lower 20s.  Wind chill values this morning and
  Tuesday morning will be in the lower-middle teens.

* Drier pattern for the remainder of the week with a warming trend
  in temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the
region though there are some breaks in the cloud cover over portions
of southern Indiana and south-central Kentucky.  Temperatures were
rather uniform with readings between 27 and 31 degrees, though most
areas were right around 30.  A small scale vorticity lobe was
dropping southeastward through southern IN.  This feature will bring
a swath of light snow and flurries to areas just west/southwest of
Louisville over the next few hours.  Much of it will move through
Crawford/Harrison/Meade/northern Hardin/Bullitt and into Nelson
counties.  A quick dusting of accumulation on grassy and elevated
surfaces will be possible with this activity.

Temperatures will likely remain fairly steady in the 27-30 degree
range through sunrise.  Gusty northwest winds will continue as well
resulting in wind chill values this morning in the teens.

Moving into the daytime hours, a well advertised upper level low and
surface trough will drop into the region from the north and pass
through the region from mid-late morning and into the afternoon
hours.  As this feature approaches, we`ll see an increase in
coverage of snow showers by mid-morning and maxing out during the
afternoon hours.  Looking through model soundings, all models
continue to show very steep lapse rates in the low-mid levels with
very good vertical motion through the DGZ.  The snow showers will
likely be convective this afternoon as many model soundings continue
to show 100-200 J/Kg of available CAPE and model derived snow squall
parameter values remain in the 1-4 range.  Given the intense forcing
and lift, would not be surprised to see a few lightning strikes with
some of this activity.  The upper level low and surface trough will
pivot east of the region by late afternoon and toward evening which
will result in a quick end to the snow from NW to SE by evening.

As for weather related impacts, it appears that there will be a
period of negative impacts across portions of the region from mid-
morning through the afternoon hours.  It appears that the morning
commute should see minimal impacts due to the fact that the heavier
snow showers will likely hold off until after the commute.  However,
by mid-late morning, the snow showers are expected to become more
widespread with scattered heavier snow showers/squalls developing in
the afternoon.  The impacts are a bit complex to message here
because this is the first snow of the season, coming off the heels
of a rather warm period of weather.  Ground temps are still quite
warm and surface temps will likely remain at or above freezing
through the day.  So the impacts here will primarily be driven by
snowfall rates which will not be uniform across the region.

The current thinking is that as snow showers/squalls move through
the region, any one location will likely see a quick decrease in
visibilities along with the potential for a slushy accumulation of
snow where snowfall rates can outperform the warm ground.  Where this
happens, the slushy accumulation will likely lead to negative travel
issues.  This will be especially true on bridges and overpasses and
rural, less traveled routes.

Given that this is first snowfall of the season and the potential
for a period of negative travel impacts, we have coordinated with
surrounding offices and will hoist Winter Weather Advisory based on
impacts.  The Winter Weather Advisory will be generally for areas
east of a line from Dubois county Indiana to Monroe county Kentucky.

Snowfall amounts with this event will not be uniform and will vary
from location to location.  In our western counties, a coating to a
few tenths of accumulation are expected.  In the I-65 corridor a
slushy half to one inch will be possible.  East of I-65 a general
inch of snow accumulation will be possible.  However, small scale
swaths of localized higher accumulations can`t be ruled out.

As we move toward the evening hours, the upper level low and surface
trough will quickly move eastward.  Snow will wind down in the I-65
corridor by late afternoon with snowfall ending in the I-75 corridor
by early evening.  A few snow flurries may linger in areas east of I-
75 through midnight.  Gusty northwest winds will continue, but will
diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes.  Overnight lows
will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday through Thursday Night...

Sharp upper trough axis will continue to quickly push eastward.  A
quick moving mid-level perturbation will dive through the Midwest
and northern Ohio Valley on Tuesday.  As this occurs, a decent low-
level jet axis will push across the region which will scour out this
quick hit of cold air.  There may be enough lift with the jet to
promote a few light rain showers Tuesday afternoon.  Highs will
exhibit a gradient with readings in the lower 40s across the
Bluegrass with upper down in the southwest.  Lows Tuesday night will
be in the mid-upper 30s.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look quiet with a modest warming
trend.  Heights will rise across the Plains with a broad northwest
flow aloft.  Highs on Wednesday look to warm into the upper 50s and
lower 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s.  Highs on Thursday
will be similar with upper 50s and lower 60s expected.  Lows
Thursday night will be slightly warmer with upper 30s/lower 40s
expected.

Friday through Sunday...

Upper level ridging over the Plains will translate eastward on
Friday.  As this occurs, we`ll get into a return flow setup.  On the
cusp of this return flow set up, a low-level jet response is
forecast across the Mid-MS valley late Thursday and into early
Friday.  As this low-level jet spreads eastward, there has been a
rather consistent signal for a cluster of elevated convection to
move across the region on Friday.  The current blend has increased
PoPs here so will continue that trend in the upcoming forecast.
Moving into Saturday, upper ridging looks to move over the region
with falling heights out to the west.  Run-to-run continuity in the
longer term models continues to be rather poor, but a stronger
trough looks to push into the region on Sunday bringing a cold front
with a band of showers and thunderstorms.  Will continue to watch
the late Sunday and into Monday period as this system comes through.
Environmental shear picks up quite a bit and may result in a low end
risk of strong/severe storms.

Highs on Friday look to warm into the mid-upper 60s with some 70s
down along the KY/TN border.  Stronger warming is expected on
Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Expected clouds
and showers/storms may result in lower temps on Sunday with highs in
the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Breezy northwest winds will be seen across the region overnight.  A
few light snow showers will move southeast within the northwest
flow, but most of the night will remain rather dry with VFR
conditions expected.

Strong upper level wave and slug of moisture will rotate southward
out of Indiana and into Kentucky around 10/14-15Z or so.  This will
bring snow showers to the region and some of them may be convective
in nature.  Overall, MVFR conditions look likely through the day,
but within the heavier snow showers, reductions to IFR cigs/vsbys
are possible.  Worst of the snow at KSDF/KHNB looks to be between
10/14-20Z and over at KLEX/KRGA between 10/15Z-22Z.  Further south
at KBWG, snow is expected to be much lighter in nature and not
overly impactful to aviation.  Look for improving conditions from NW
to SE after 10/22Z with VFR conditions returning for Monday night
and into Tuesday.  Northwest gusty winds will continue through the
day with gusts of 20-25kts at times, but winds will diminish
considerably after sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning
     to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for KYZ023>025-
     027>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-074>078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning
     to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ