479
FXUS63 KLMK 041631
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1131 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Brief light snow or flurries possible this morning across southern
  IN and northern KY. No accumulation is expected.

* Another weak system moves through the TN/OH Valley tonight, which
  will bring light snow and mixed precip to south-central and
  southeastern Kentucky. Light snow accumulations under half an inch
  forecast.

* Messy weather pattern will continue through mid next week, where
  light precip will be possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low-level moisture under a stout inversion has allowed for low
stratus to remain over the region, despite northerly / northwesterly
surface flow. Weak vorticity lobes are streaming over the region
this afternoon, which may helps to squeeze some light flurries. This
has been noted on radar with light returns over southern Indiana at
this hour. For this reason, have added flurries into the forecast
for the next few hours.

After analyzing the 12Z and recent Hi-Res guidance, there has been a
trend for higher snow totals for tonight in most deterministic and
ensemble models. This makes sense given the location of the system,
which will bring low-level convergence along the inverted surface
trough and low-mid level frontogenesis. These will bring lift to
increased low-level moisture (0.75-0.9 inch PWATs), and allow for
moderate snowfall. In our very far SE counties (Monroe, Clinton,
Cumberland, and Russell) we could see around an 1 of snowfall. Will
increase the snow totals in the forecast now. Will likely issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for these counties and surround them with an
SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 352 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Regional radar early this morning shows some light snow bands
tracking across portions of central Indiana and Ohio, which is being
driven by an area of weak 850mb frontogenesis and an approaching
cold front. While chances remain rather low, we could see some light
snow across our far northern portion of the CWA, and perhaps some
snow flurries as far south as the Ohio River. Little to no
accumulation is expected across southern IN, as we have some mid-
level dry air working in our favor, evident by ACARS soundings early
this morning. If are able to produce some very minor accumulations,
the best chances will be for Washington, Scott, and Jefferson
counties in Indiana. We`ll see this activity end around or maybe
even before 12z this morning.

For the daylight hours today, expect another bitter cold and cloudy
day as the cold front passes through the region and provides a
reinforcing CAA regime as strong sfc high pressure filters in across
the Midwest. Temps will struggle to get above freezing for many
today, but the best chance for above freezing temps will be across
south-central Kentucky.

For tonight, a sfc low will track across the Gulf Coast, which will
support showers and storms for the Deep South. An inverted sfc
trough and associated plume of moisture will extend northward into
the TN and OH Valleys, aiding in additional forcing for some
overnight precip chances. We`ll likely see light precip begin to
enter our south-central KY counties around 00z, with sfc temps
potentially hovering just above freezing. However, model soundings
suggest decent saturation through -20C or so, which will be enough
for dendrite growth. We expect to see light snow for tonight and
into early Friday morning, mainly from a line from Bowling Green to
Richmond that points east. While light snow will be the primary p-
type, there could be some brief instances of wintry mix. However,
this wave of wintry weather appears to be sub-advisory, with just
some minor snow accumulations of a few tenths forecast. Despite the
minor snow amounts, there could be some slick spots in our southeast
for Friday morning, with the best chance for impacts being the
typical bridges and overpasses. Something to keep an eye on, but
there are no plans for a headline at this time.

Other than the snow chances tonight for our southeast, cold temps
are forecast region-wide. Areas north of the KY Pkwys are expected
to drop into the upper teens tonight, and mid-20s for areas south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

===== Friday - Friday Night =====

Progressive zonal flow continues on Friday, with the 150kt speed max
core within the upper jet directly overhead during the morning. We
could have some low-end lingering PoPs across Lake Cumberland for
the morning hours, but an overall drier trend is expected for the
day, with partial clearing of cloud cover as sfc high pressure
builds to our southwest. Temps will remain below normal, with highs
only reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. Dry weather continues for
Friday night, with cloud cover likely building back over the region.
Temps are forecast to bottom out in the 20s.

===== Weekend - Next Week =====

Dry weather will likely continue for the start of the weekend, with
progressive upper flow and sfc high pressure across the area.
Saturday may feature slightly stronger WAA with SW sfc flow, which
could end up supporting our first day of temps returning to the 40s
across the majority of the forecast area.

Precip chances look to make a return by late Saturday night and
throughout Sunday as a mid-level impulse embedded within the
westerly flow pivots across the center of the country. At the sfc, a
cold front will approach the region by Sunday, but it could end up
being somewhat moisture-starved. We have some precip chances in the
forecast to close out the weekend, which may end up being a messy p-
type event for Sunday and into early Monday morning. However, QPF
and any wintry accums looks to be very light at this time.

Dry weather looks likely again for Monday and Tuesday of next week,
though a bit more breezy on Tuesday as the sfc pressure gradient
tightens and we get squeezed between sfc high pressure to our
southeast and another approaching cold front to our northwest. By
Wednesday of next week, we look to finally return back to normal
temps with highs reaching the low 50s,but that will be accompanied
by some decent rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A mix of IFR and MVFR cigs are across the area this morning, and we
expect these conditions to continue throughout the forecast period.
Winds will be from the north-northeast today, with dry conditions.
For tonight, light snow will be possible at BWG, but chances are low
enough to use a PROB30 group for now. LEX may end up seeing some
flurries too, but confidence is not high enough to add snow mention
to their TAF. Otherwise, there is low confidence on cigs actually
breaking out to VFR overnight. Decided to continue a pessimistic
forecast and keep most terminals in MVFR status overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP