030
FXUS63 KLMK 301108
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
708 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Continued dry and warm weather expected through the week.

*  With several days of dry weather, drought conditions are expected
   to persist or worsen.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

An upper level ridge will slowly translate eastward over the Midwest
and western Great Lakes through tonight. NE flow aloft will sling
thin high clouds over the Bluegrass Region late this morning into
the afternoon. We`ll also see some SCT afternoon cumulus develop
once again. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will be common through
this forecast period.

At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to slide east
over Ontario. Its influence will stretch through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. It will be another dry day with warm afternoon temps
and low humidity. NE winds will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon
during peak mixing. Temperatures should max out just a degree or two
cooler than yesterday: a lot of mid 80s with the warmest spots in
the upper 80s.

Winds will quickly diminish with sunset this evening, with mainly
clear skies overnight and lows in the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Dry weather is likely to persist through this weekend. In general,
upper level ridging lingers over the region during this time frame.
Strong sfc high pressure starting over Quebec on Wednesday builds
south over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with time.

By Sunday into Monday, we should start seeing better southerly
moisture transport into the region upstream of strong ridging over
the East Coast. Early next week, model guidance suggests a cold
front will attempt to push southeast through the Midwest. The influx
of moisture ahead of this frontal boundary could bring some rain
showers back to the region Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence
in the forecast details (timing, amounts) is low. Highs in the low
to mid 80s will be common, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR conditions continue throughout this TAF cycle as high pressure
dominates the region. The only exception would be brief MVFR VIS at
HNB in light fog. Otherwise, expect SCT high cloud debris from TS
Imelda to stream in from the ENE and some fair weather cumulus to
develop this afternoon with bases between FL050 and FL080. Winds
will remain light to calm this morning before picking up later this
morning out of the NE with possible gusts in the 15-20kt range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CG