012
FXUS63 KLOT 240916
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
316 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing low-level cloud cover this morning, with locally
  dense fog possible.

- Light rain or drizzle expected tonight into early Tuesday,
  along with the possibility for another period of locally
  dense fog.

- Very windy (gusts up to 45 mph or stronger) and much colder on
  Wednesday with light snow showers and flurries possible for some,
  and then continued blustery and cold on Thanksgiving Day.

- There is a growing signal for accumulating snow and associated
  travel impacts in the region late Friday night through
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Through Tuesday:

We continue to monitor the northward expansion of an area of
very low stratus and fog early this morning. As of this writing,
the northern extent of this low stratus and fog was roughly
oriented from southeastern IA, back east-southeastward into
central IL, just to the south and southwest of the LOT CWA. The
expectation is for this stratus and fog to continue expanding
northward through the early to mid morning hours today,
particularly across the western half or so of IL. As it does, we
cannot rule out the need for a northward expansion of the dense
fog advisory into portions of our area. However, with it
remaining somewhat unclear as to how extensive the dense fog
threat will be in northern IL this morning, we have opted to
hold off in doing so for the present time. The areas most at
risk for a period of dense fog this morning look to be areas
generally west of I-57 and west of I-355 in northern IL. We will
continue to monitor observational trends in the coming hours.

The low stratus and fog is likely to have staying power today,
particularly across northwestern IL (generally northwest of the
I-55 corridor and west of most of the Chicago metro area). With
this in mind, I have maintained the idea of cooler high
temperatures today in this general area. Yesterday, this same
area of cloud cover was persistent through the day across
portions of MO, and temperatures there never warmed out of the
middle and upper 40s. I thus anticipate similar temperatures
this afternoon under the most persistent and thicker low-level
stratus, which again looks to be most probable across
northwestern IL (generally northwest of I-55). Conversely, areas
along and east of I-55 (including parts of the Chicagoland
area) look to have shallower cloud depths, which may allow them
to diurnally dissipate for a period this afternoon. This will
thus make for a tricky temperature forecast this afternoon, as
temperatures outside the thicker low-level cloud cover are
likely to end up several degrees warmer (low to mid 50s).

Regardless of which areas are able to shed the low-level
stratus this afternoon, it will expand back across the entire
area later this evening and overnight. This is expected as
deeper moisture begins to shift into the area with the
approaching mid- level impulse. While a period of light rain
continues to be in the cards for tonight into early Tuesday
morning as this impulse passes across central IL, it appears the
activity will remain more showery with northward extent across
northern IL. For this reason, rainfall amounts are expected to
remain quite light (only up to a tenth of an inch or so). The
precipitation may even end up transitioning to a period of fog,
very low clouds and drizzle into Tuesday morning. We will thus
have to keep an eye on the potential for more dense fog in or
near the area into Tuesday morning.

KJB


Tuesday Afternoon through Sunday:

A majority of the guidance does scour out the areas of fog and
drizzle Tuesday afternoon, though at this time of year, can`t say
that`s a sure thing. It will otherwise be continued cloudy and
mild with highs in the lower to locally mid 50s.

Attention then turns to the powerful cold front sweeping across
the area Tuesday evening into the overnight. The front will be
driven by a potent and amplifying northern Plains short-wave
taking on a negative tilt as it reaches the Northern Lakes
Wednesday morning (and its associated surface low quickly deepens
as well). While deep layer moisture will be limited, the magnitude
of large scale and frontal forcing will likely overcome the
after sunset timing for a fast moving arc of showers to push
across the area ahead of the front. Can`t rule out a few showers
over the western half or third of the CWA just prior to sunset
Tuesday, but the bulk of the measurable rain (up to 1/10")
should be centered on 6pm to midnight Tuesday.

By far the bigger story will the post cold frontal passage strong
winds and plummeting temperatures amidst robust cold air
advection (CAA). The progged 990-995 mb surface low slowly
tracking across the northern Lakes as 1030-1035 mb high pressure
tries to build east from the Plains is a pretty classic pattern
for strong synoptic winds in the cold season. Very steep low-level
lapse rates from the strong CAA will help tap into 40-50 knots of
westerly flow aloft. Given the consistency of the signal for
strong winds on Wednesday, continued to nudge up the forecast
gusts to up to 45 mph, and there`s a pretty good chance we`ll end
up needing a Wind Advisory for much of if not the entire area.
While moisture is lacking in forecast soundings once solidly above
the -10C level, some wind-whipped flurries or light snow showers
are possible for roughly the northeast half of the CWA.
Temperatures will probably struggle to rise much if at all and
stay in the 30s through the day, keeping wind chills in the 20s.

Blustery but not quite as windy conditions will continue through
Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day (gusts to 30-40 mph), with
temps only recovering to the lower to locally mid 30s Thursday
afternoon following morning lows in the 20s. Wind chills will be
as low as the the upper single digits to lower teens, "rebounding"
to the teens to around 20F during daylight hours. Keep this in
mind if you have any outdoor activities planned on Thanksgiving
Day. Thursday night into Friday will be much less windy and cold
(lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s) as surface high
pressure transits the area.

Late Friday night through Saturday, a potentially prolonged
period of warm advection driven precipitation paired with
sufficiently cold temps aloft and at the surface may set the stage
for an accumulating snow event. While there`s a large spectrum of
plausible outcomes amongst ensemble members, the multi-ensemble
probability for 1"+ (10:1) snowfall in 24 hours centered on
Saturday-Saturday evening is >=60% even at this extended lead
time. The ECMWF/EPS depiction has been generally more robust than
the other guidance suites, but ultimately it`s much too far out
for specifics, aside from feeling comfortable with ~60% PoPs in
the gridded forecast. Our main message is to keep a close eye on
subsequent forecast updates as this timeframe draws closer for the
potential for winter weather impacts to post-Thanksgiving travel.

Forecast uncertainty grows considerably into Sunday and beyond.
The potential exists for continued precip as warmer air moves
into the region, represented by still sizable ensemble membership.
On the other hand, the active baroclinic zone may be shunted
far enough southeast for a period of quiet but cold weather into
early next week. Maintained broad-brushed chance PoPs with rain-
snow mention given the large spread in solutions.

Castro

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Forecast concerns include...

Ifr/lifr cigs Monday with mvfr/ifr vis/fog.
Chance of showers Monday afternoon/evening.
Light rain/drizzle/ifr/lifr cigs/vis Monday night.

A large area of lifr/vlifr cigs/vis continues to expand and lift
north across southeast IA and southern IL late this evening.
There is also fog developing across central IL, ahead of the
main area of cigs/lower vis. Guidance has slowed the progression
north and also shifted it just a bit west, possibly keeping it
west of ORD/MDW/GYY. Confidence is too low to make any
significant changes to the current forecast and maintained tempo
lifr cigs for ORD/MDW/GYY Monday morning. If it were to occur,
likely around and after sunrise. Its more likely there could be
some scattering/lifting of these cigs by afternoon as well.

Further west, especially RFD, there is increasing confidence
that at least ifr cigs may become prevailing through much of
Monday with a period of ifr vis around/after sunrise. There
could be vis under 1sm for some areas, especially southwest of
the terminals. These lower conditions may improve some by
midday/early afternoon. There may also be a few showers Monday
afternoon, mainly across northwest IL.

Cigs/vis are expected to expand east and lower through Monday
night with prevailing lifr/ifr cigs by early Tuesday morning
areawide. Periods of light rain and drizzle are also possible
late Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Mainly southerly winds are expected through sunset Monday
evening, favoring south/southwest on Monday and then turning
south/southeast Monday evening. Directions may continue turning
more southeast Monday night and possibly easterly early Tuesday
morning. Speeds into the 10kt range by daybreak are still
expected and where clouds scatter on Monday, speeds 10-15kts
with a some higher gusts are possible. cms

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon
     for the IL and IN nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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