769
FXUS63 KLOT 091939
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
239 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely isolated showers or sprinkles possible Friday into
  Friday evening.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A compact wave crossing central Manitoba this evening will
track southeastward across the Great Lakes region through Friday
evening, with an associated cold front crossing the forecast
area late afternoon through the evening. Satellite imagery today
combined with guidance indicates an expansive area of dry air
across the central CONUS. However, a ribbon of mid-level
moisture extending from Minnesota to eastern Kansas should
provide sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered showers
with a mid-level front/weak trough nearing the area from the
west late tonight. Overall shower/sprinkle coverage will then
diminish in coverage and become quite sparse as the front/trough
washes out over the area through the day on Friday. The main
front will then bring another period of sprinkles or narrow
bands of very light rain Friday evening. Finally, isolated light
lake effect rain showers cannot be ruled out showers cannot be
ruled out across northwest Indiana late Friday night into
Saturday, but low inversion heights will greatly limit
convective cloud depths.

The overall pattern across the central CONUS will remain
relatively quiet next week with a persistent low-amplitude ridge
anchored across the central Great Plains and Lower Mississippi
River Valley and a deep upper-level low stalled across northern
Canada. A series of impulses emanating from the upper-level low
will pass the area well to the northeast, bringing several
weakening cold fronts toward the forecast area through the week.
While there will be some shower chances during this time, a
vast majority of the area will remain dry. Temps will favor
slightly above normal for mid-October.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Key messages for the 18Z TAF period:

* Light, likely non-impactful showers possible Friday morning,
  especially at RFD

ESE winds below 10 kt this afternoon will gradually veer
through the night becoming SSW by early Friday. Expect SW gusts
to around 20 kt, occasionally higher, during the late morning
and afternoon. At RFD, gusts should kick in during the earlier
part of the morning.

A decaying system of showers will work across northern IL
Friday morning and afternoon. Light rain appears most likely at
RFD where a PROB30 was introduced in this TAF cycle. Chicagoland
sites were issued a dry TAF for a lesser potential, but
intermittent non- impactful showers or sprinkles will be
possible across all sites on Friday.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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