Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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576 FXUS63 KLOT 141741 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm weather expected through Saturday. - Blustery Saturday afternoon and night behind a cold front, then dry and much colder for Sunday. - Precipitation chances, including the potential for some snow, return Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 An expansive ridge centered across the central CONUS will bring a unseasonably warm conditions to the region though Saturday. Increasing low-level southwest flow today and especially tonight will advect an already mild and seasonably moist airmass from the southern Great Plains to the area. With the expectations for mostly sunny skies today, thermal profiles via 500 hPa heights and 850 hPa temps within their respective 90 percentile range today will support max temps this afternoon ranging from the low 70s southwest to the mid and upper 60s northeast. The daily record maximum temp of 78F (73F) for Chicago (Rockford) is (should be) out of reach for today. 40+ knot southwest flow as low as 1-2kft tonight along with expanding stratus over the area will promote rather mild temps tonight with lows in the mid 50s. Thermal profiles suggest that the stratus will be insufficiently deep to generate precip, but cannot fully rule out a few drizzle drops late tonight given modest low-level WAA and isentropic ascent in and above the cloud layer. A surface low tracking along the Canadian border will bring a cold front across the area Saturday morning into early afternoon. Again, the depth of moisture does not support notable precip, but a few patches of drizzle or sprinkles are possible with the front. Temps have the potential to match those expected today, but the onset of post-frontal CAA and morning cloud cover may limit warming to some extent. Otherwise, expect northwest gusts over 30 mph at times behind the front Saturday afternoon and night. After a colder and blustery day on Sunday, a disorganized upper- level low over the southwest CONUS is progged to degenerate into a pair of highly sheared disturbances crossing the mid-Mississippi River Valley Monday night through Tuesday. Given the evolution of the upstream low, there remains lower confidence than desired with respect to prospects for precip during this time. Low-level thermal profiles will be supportive of at least a mix of snow for northern portions of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday as dry easterly flow yields wet-bulb temps below freezing under a lowering cloud deck. Will need to follow trends as to whether accumulating snow chances increase for northern Illinois. Quiet conditions should briefly return with a passing ridge on Wednesday ahead of a signal for a more organized mid-latitude cyclone in the region late next week. Kluber && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Main Concern: - Potential for brief lower MVFR CIGs and gusty southwest winds just ahead of a cold front passage Saturday morning. Southwest to south-southwest winds less than 10 kt will likely become closer to due southerly for a time this evening. As a low-level jet ramps up overnight, forecast soundings appear too marginal for true LLWS criteria, though winds should return to southwest and increase into the 10-15 kt range. Anticipating some patchy lower MVFR clouds to develop overnight as well. After sunrise Saturday, there`s a signal for a short period of southwesterly (220-240 deg) gusts to ~25-30 kt over the Chicago metro once mixing taps into the departing low-level jet winds. This is also the most likely timeframe for patchy MVFR CIGs (medium confidence). Late Saturday morning, a cold front will shift winds to westerly, with direction veering to west- northwest in the afternoon as gusts reach into the mid 20s kt range. Occasional gusts approaching 30 kt are possible. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago