711
FXUS63 KLOT 110826
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
226 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-30% chance of light snow/flurries this morning with at
  most a dusting.

- Warming temperatures are expected through the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery at this hour shows
mostly clear skies along and southeast of I-55, with a little
lake effect cloud cover over Porter County slowly moving east
into southwest Michigan. However, thick cloud cover is moving
in ahead of a quick moving mid level shortwave that is diving
southeastward out of Minnesota toward Illinois. This wave will
provide breezy conditions with wind gusts 20 to 25 mph
(occasionally up to 30 mph for a brief window in the afternoon)
and another chance for light snow and flurries this morning.
Current regional radar mosaic is showing a fairly broad plume
of snow showers in the warm advection regime ahead of the wave;
however, only few surface obs in Wisconsin have recently started
reporting flurries. Model soundings are showing a show dry
layer that is most likely creating more snow virga to the
northwest. But as dawn approaches, better low level saturation
should help allow for snow flakes to survive the descent to the
surface. Overall, moisture is lacking with this wave, so any
accumulations will likely just be a dusting (a couple tenths of
an inch at best). Temperatures are currently below freezing, but
will slowly rise above freezing in the late morning. That being
said, while there is a slight chance for snow to transition
over to rain by noon, the main vort max associated with the wave
should already be over the eastern portion of the CWA and
moving east by then. Lastly, there is a very weak secondary wave
that will follow closely behind this morning`s wave. "Silent
PoPs" (10-14%) were held on a little longer for areas closer to
Lake Michigan for the chance for some lingering flurries. Even
though temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support
flurries, previously mentioned warming surface temperatures
above freezing will mitigate any impacts or accumulations.

A broad upper level ridge is expected to grow through mid week
and slowly move eastward into the weekend. West-southwest winds
will continue to pull in warmer and drier air from the southern
Plains for a gradual warming trend through the end of the week.
Models have been consistently showing Saturday being the warmest
day of the warm up with temperatures in the 60s possible, with
areas closer to central Illinois potentially even touching 70.

Models have been consistently showing a flattening in the ridge
over the weekend with another upper level trough passing over
the Great Lakes which is expected to provide the next chance
for rain to the region. Additionally, by early next week,
another mid level closed low over the desert southwest will
cross the Plains and pass over the forecast area for potentially
another chance for precip. Of course, at this range, models are
really struggling with how these waves play out. The NBM
brought in chance PoPs starting on Saturday and continued it
into early next week. Given so much uncertainty in the details,
felt no need to change them...for now; however, there will
likely be breaks in the rain (like all day Sunday as surface
high pressure grows). Lastly, with model soundings showing limited
to null instability with the first trough on Saturday, any
thunder mention was kept out of the forecast.

DK

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Key messages for the 06Z TAF period:

* VFR flurries or light snow showers possible Tuesday morning

Westerly winds largely below 10 kt late this evening will build
closer to around 10 kt for the overnight period as a low level
jet builds just off the surface. Sporadic gusts to around 20 kt
may be possible. Expect southwesterlies during the day on
Tuesday gusting regularly to 25 to 30 kt, occasionally higher,
beginning around mid-morning but strongest during the
afternoon. Westerlies around 10 kt with occasional gusts are
then expected for Tuesday night.

A push of light snow will move across the area Tuesday morning.
With lots of dry air residing near the surface, there`s a
chance that this snow could scoot over as virga snow showers and
leave the airfields precip-free. Otherwise, a few hour period
of non-impactful flurries or light snow showers will be
possible. Window of opportunity looks to be 10 to 14Z at RFD at
12 to 16Z in Chicago.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for the
     IL nearshore waters.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     Wednesday for the IL nearshore waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for the IN
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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