166
FXUS66 KLOX 101720
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
920 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/1222 AM.

Benign weather will continue through this week, with a warming
trend continuing through Thursday. High temperatures will be well
above normal through at least Friday. Offshore flow will produce
locally gusty canyon winds in the mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...10/919 AM.

Clear skies continue across the region this morning as a strong
and dominant ridge of high pressure remains in place. A very warm
weather pattern for this time of year will continue today as
offshore flow will remain firmly in place. Near record to record
high temperatures are expected across the many coastal and valley
areas today with today likely being the warmest day of the week.
An update to the forecast has been sent to tweak temperatures for
the short-term period, mainly to warm temperatures today and
introduce a bit more cooling overnight in the wind-sheltered area
and interior valleys.

***From Previous Discussion***

Chamber of Commerce weather continues today, tomorrow and Friday.
High pressure aloft will bring 582 dam hgts to the area (11 dam
higher than normal) and offshore flow will continue through the
period.

The upper will deflect any mid and high clouds away from the area
and the offshore flow will prevent any low clouds from forming.

There is no upper support and despite moderate offshore flow the
gusty canyon winds in the morning will not reach advisory levels
although isolated mtn ridgetops might. Of note is the very high
(8 to 9 mb) offshore gradient between KLAX and KBFL while normally
such a gradients would bring strong north winds to the some passes
and canyons - this gradient is more the result of the abnormally
low max T at KBFL (45 degrees) and the much hier than normal max T
at KLAX (81 degrees)

Today will be warmest day of this warm streak. Coastal areas away
from the beaches will see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
valley locations in the 80s. Max temps will end up 12 to 18
degrees above normal with isolated areas coming in 18 to 22
degrees over normals. Most sites should stay below record
values. However, our forecasted numbers are within a couple
degrees of daily records such as... Ojai (1958) and Lancaster
(1975).

The ridge will weaken both Thu and Fri as will the offshore flow.
This will result in a slow cool down. Most cst/vly areas will see
2 to 4 degrees of cooling Thursday. Friday`s cooling will be a
little more noticeable 3 to 5 degrees. Above normal temps will
continue, however, with the csts most 5 to 10 degrees over normal
and the vlys 10 to 12 degrees.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...10/307 AM.

Weak troffing will arrive early Saturday and hgts will fall to 578
dam and then to 575 dam on Sunday. Weak onshore flow will develop
as well and this will likely bring night through morning low
clouds and fog (possibly dense) back to some of the coasts. Max
temps will fall 1 to 3 degrees on Saturday and a more noticeable
3 to 6 degrees on Sunday. Despite the cool down max temps will
remain 3 to 6 degrees over normals across the csts/vlys and 6 to
12 degrees further inland.

Weak ridging will nose into the state from the west on Monday and
persist into Tuesday. Hgts will rise to about 582 dam. At the sfc
the the weak onshore flow will turn offshore and on Monday and
then become a little more offshore on Tuesday. The ridging and
switch to offshore flow will reduce but will likely not eliminate
the morning low clouds. Max temps will rise 1 to 3 degrees each
day.

The EC/AI mdl shows dry weather continuing until through at least
the 21st with the first chc of rain arriving sometime in the
22/23rd time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1653Z.

At 1629Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top of 1600 ft and a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will
be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/1247 AM.

NE wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots will affect wind prone areas at
times through this morning. This includes portions of the Central
Coast and from Ventura to Santa Monica. These winds will likely
reach low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for the nearshore
waters of San Luis Obispo County. Otherwise, high confidence in
fairly calm conditions and lowering seas.

Some dense fog will form in the coastal waters by Thursday or
Friday, but low confidence on when and where.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox