007
FXUS66 KLOX 200742
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1142 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...19/112 PM.

Another storm is expected to move through the area Thursday into
Friday bringing moderate rain and mountain snow above 6000 feet.
High pressure will return for Thanksgiving week that will warm
temperatures and keep the storm track well north of southern
California.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...19/158 PM.

One more dry evening tonight before the next storm system moves
into the area Thursday. Models have generally lowered the rain
projections since yesterday by around 10-20%. That still fits in
with the 0.50-1" coast/valleys. 1-2" foothills and mountains
forecast, but nudging towards the lower side of those. And the
highest amounts are still expected to be in LA County. It`s
important to keep in mind, though, that despite the overall
lowering of amounts, there are still 10-20% of the solutions that
are twice that amount. This is due to the uncertainty of the
movement of the cutoff low.

Also, there is a convective risk with this system with the best
chances of that being in LA County overnight Thursday into Friday
morning. Models are showing 300-600 CAPE with lapse rates as high
as 8C/km. So there is likely going to be a big spread in rain
amounts over short distances, depending on where the heavier
downpours develop. Latest high res models indicate a 60% chance
of rain rates around a half inch per hour between Pasadena and the
Orange County line, starting around 10pm Thursday and peaking
around 3 am Friday. While the overall risk for burn scar debris
flows is low, it`s certainly not zero. Based on these models the
risk would be higher across eastern LA County than western. And
in addition to that, there is a low chance (5% or less) of a weak
tornado, with the best chances across southeast LA County.

The upper low is expected to move south of LA County Friday but
wrap around showers from the northeast are possible, especially in
LA County through the day. The ultimate movement of the upper low
will largely determine how much additional rain falls but most of
the model solutions indicate just light showers the rest of Friday
and possibly even into early Saturday morning.

There is enough cold air with this storm to bring snow to some of
the local mountains above 6000 feet, especially in LA County where
a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Will re-evaluate tonight based
on the later model runs and decide whether to go with an Winter
Weather Advisory or go with a Warning. Lower snow amounts
expected in Ventura County where a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect.

After a chance of morning showers in LA County Saturday the
remainder of the day and weekend is expected to be dry but cool.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/203 PM.

Expecting a dry week through Thanksgiving and likely through at
least next Saturday. Highs will warm up modestly with most areas
in the mid 60s to low 70s all week with no significant winds
expected and minimal if any marine layer stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0741Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions everywhere through 10Z.

A storm system will bring widespread rain on Thursday with at
least MVFR categories and possible localized IFR conditions during
the heaviest rain, with the highest chance of that over LA and
Ventura Counties 20-03Z. LLWS 5-15 knots likely at most airports.
10-20% chance of thunderstorms after 00Z. Moderate confidence in
timing (+/- 3 hours).

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 10Z. 30% chance
of MVFR ceilings 10-18Z. 20% of -SHRA at 15Z increasing to 100%
chance of RA by 21Z. Rain will likely have few breaks through at
least Thursday Night. While MVFR ceilings and visibility will be
most common during the rain, there is a 40% chance of brief IFR
conditions during the peak of the rain (20-03Z). East to southeast
winds will likely develop Thursday, with a 20% chance of reaching
8-10 knots 16-22Z. High risk of 12+ hours of east winds over 8
knots as early as 03Z Friday and as late as 21Z Friday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through 10Z. 30% chance
of MVFR ceilings 10-18Z. 20% of -SHRA at 15Z increasing to 100%
chance of RA by 21Z. Rain will likely have few breaks through at
least Thursday Night. While MVFR ceilings and visibility will be
most common during the rain, there is a 40% chance of brief IFR
conditions during the peak of the rain (20-03Z).

&&

.MARINE...19/1025 PM.

A storm system will move south along the California Coast,
bringing gusty winds, a large west- northwest swell, rain, and
potential thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. The highest
rain and thunderstorm chances exists from Thursday afternoon
through Friday afternoon. Any thunderstorm can produce erratic
wind shifts, heavy rain, lightning, and even waterspouts. The
variable winds across all coastal waters will result in rough,
confused seas. Low chances, but Gale Force winds are possible
virtually anywhere as any changes to the locations of the storm`s
core can create major differences in wind speeds and direction.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
be common across the coastal waters beginning early Thursday
through much of the weekend. Seas will rapidly increase to upwards
of 14 to 15 feet across the Outer Waters, 10 feet for the
nearshore Central Coast Waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the
Southern California Bight. Ahead of the cold front associated with
the storm system, 10-15 knot southerly winds are expected, and NW
winds 20-30 knots will follow in the wake of the front. As the low
center passes the Channel Islands Thursday afternoon/night, there
is the potential for south to southeast winds to near SCA levels
for the inner waters south of Point Conception, including the near
shore waters.

By Friday morning, winds are expected to transition to a Santa
Ana pattern. Northeast winds 20-30 knots will be common nearshore
from Ventura to Malibu Friday morning through Saturday evening.
There is a moderate chance these winds reach the Channel Islands
across the Santa Barbara Channel. Northeast to southeast winds
10-20 knots are likely nearshore from the Palos Verdes Peninsula
south through Orange County. Lower confidence, but winds have a
chance of impacting Catalina Island, including Avalon Harbor. SCAs
will more than likely be issued tonight after newer high
resolution guidance comes in.

Confidence is low in winds for Thursday through Saturday. It is
best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions
improve.

&&

.BEACHES...19/104 PM.

High Surf Advisories are now in effect from Thursday through
Sunday night along the Central Coast and Ventura County. There is
a 30% chance for High Surf Advisories to be issued for the Los
Angeles County coasts during that timeframe.

Highly variable winds will create rough surf conditions across all
coasts. In addition to rough surf, there is a chance for
thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night at all beaches.
Thunderstorms can produce lightning, heavy downpours, gusty-
erratic winds, and even waterspouts.

Beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible
for west-northwest facing beaches, especially during peak high
tide from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through Sunday, with highest
risk along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST
      Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Thursday
      to 2 AM PST Friday for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Thursday afternoon
      through Saturday morning for zones 379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox