981
FXUS66 KLOX 181751
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
951 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/909 AM.

Scattered showers are expected today, mainly south of Point
Conception, with a slight chance of thunderstorms and brief heavy
rain. Light snow accumulations are possible above 5000 feet.
Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain. A weaker
storm is slated to arrive later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...18/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

While the cold front from this latest storm has passed, the main
upper low is on our doorstep, just a short distance west of Pt
Conception. It`s expected to rotate through the bight region
creating little pop up showers and possibly isolated storms. This
is a favorable setup for waterspouts so boaters need to be
prepared for dangerous conditions. A shower or storm could
literally develop anywhere at anytime and drop a brief period of
heavy rain and possibly some small hail as well, especially in the
foothills and mountains. The snow level will be between 5000 and
6000 feet and a few inches of snow accumulation are possible. At
the very least it will be a very cool day with highs in the high
50s or low 60s.

***From Previous Discussion***

As the low marches to the east, the flow turns northeasterly on
Wednesday, but the moisture is still around. Would expect a few
wrap-around light showers coming from the east and hitting the
back side of the mountains.

With snow levels around 5,000 feet, any showers that do develop
over the mountains would result in a few inches of snow and some
road issues.

The next storm is on track to bring widespread rain Thursday or
Thursday Night, with some showers on Friday. There remains a range
of outcomes in terms of rain amounts, intensities, and impacts.
While this storm will not be nearly as wet as the storm we had
this weekend, as mentioned before, it will take less rain than
usual to get significant runoff and impacts.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...18/357 AM.

Showers may continue through Friday as the low pressure center
associated with the Thursday rain moves through. The most likely
outcomes is for rain totals for Thursday through Friday to fall in
the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, with 1 to 2 inches in the favored
mountains and hills. There are still about 30% of the projections
that favor double those amounts, which includes some of the AI
models that have shown some skill with the recent storms.

The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the
weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions
through the Thanksgiving holiday week.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1749Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

High confidence in TAFs for all sites, with periods of MVFR conds
as scattered clouds will move throughout the region. SHRA
possible at any site, especially KSBA and south through this
evening. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB, KBUR,
and/or KVNY 10Z-17Z.

There is a 10-20 percent chc of a TSTM through 21Z KSBA and
north and 20-02Z elsewhere.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z,
with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs
possible at any point. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z,
with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs
possible at any point.

&&

.MARINE...18/823 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas across
the waters greater than 10 NM from shore improving through this
evening. Conditions will remain relatively calm through Thursday
morning. Another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14
feet across the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water
south of Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas
will improve some but remain at or near SCA levels through much
of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Winds will be quite
variable directionally as the storm moves into the area, but
periods of 20-30 knot winds will be common as early as Thursday
afternoon into the weekend.

Nearshore northeast winds of 15-25 knots may surface between
Ventura Harbor to Malibu early Friday through Saturday afternoon.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters through this evening. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST
      this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox