886
FXUS66 KLOX 170608
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1008 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/428 PM.

Scattered to isolated showers will persist through late tonight
across the area. A cooler storm system will spread rain from
northwest to southeast across the area late tonight through Monday
night, with decreasing showers continuing into Tuesday. Wednesday
will offer a brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures.
Another storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...16/916 PM.

***UPDATE***

We are in the anticipated lull between storms right now with
spotty drizzle or showers continuing under varying cloud cover. A
weak impulse offshore may enhance shower activity overnight for LA
County in particular - although any showers would be light. The
upcoming cold front and associated showers look at track with it
sweeping through most of Southwest California between 4 am to 4
pm Tuesday. See below for storm details.

***From Previous Discussion***

The next projected storm is still on track to impact the region
late tonight through Tuesday. A progressive cold front is expected
to bring steady moderate rain to the region starting late tonight
in San Luis Obispo County pushing through the remainder of the
forecast area on Monday. Within the cold front, there will likely
be embedded areas of brief heavier rainfall, especially across
south and southwest facing foothills and coastal slopes, with the
highest risk for the Santa Ynez mountains and western Ventura
mountains. There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms within
the cold front as latest NAM model indicting modest instability
(with CAPE values peaking at 400-600 J/jg). Behind the cold front,
a cold and unstable air mass associated with a cold upper level
low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a 10-20
percent chance of thunderstorms by Monday afternoon across the
Central Coast and by late Monday evening across LA county. A
smaller threat of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue into Tuesday, however rain intensities are expected
to be less as the system takes a more inland track.

The most likely outcome for storm total rainfall from late tonight
into Tuesday would be most areas receiving another 1 to 2 inches
of rain, except locally up to 3 inches across the Santa Ynez
range. Peak rain rates of 0.25-0.50 inches per hour will be
common, with isolated rates up to 0,80 inches per hour likely near
thunderstorms and S-SW facing foothills/coastal slopes(especially
in the Santa Ynez mountains and western Ventura mountains). Due
to the abundant rainfall during the past 48 hours, additional
expected rainfall will bring threats of minor roadway/small stream
flooding, additional rockslides/mudslides, and minor/shallow
debris flows in recent burn scars. There is a 20-30 percent chance
of reaching debris flow thresholds (15, 30, 60 minute durations)
in the recent burn scars. The wet grounds will also bring an
increased risk of downed trees during any convective bursts.
There is also the potential for isolated waterspouts.

Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet during the onset
of this next storm, but are expected to lower to between 5000 and
6000 feet by Monday night, and around 4500 feet on Tuesday. Snow
accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible for elevations above
6000 feet, with higher amounts above resort levels (above 8000
feet) likely. On Tuesday, there is a small chance of snow showers
reaching down to the Grapevine along I-5, but any accumulations
would likely be minimal. A winter weather advisory may need to be
considered for the higher mountains as we draw closer to the
event. Dry and mild conditions are then expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/233 PM.

Another system is expected to affect the state on Thursday and/or
Friday. There is still considerable disagreement on track and
speed of this system. While there is still considerable
uncertainty in the rain amounts, timing, and intensities, the
official forecast calls for 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on
Thursday and a 20 to 30 percent chance on Friday with additional
rainfall amounts most likely between a quarter inch and one inch.
This system is quite a few days away and is embedded in a fast
moving storm track, so it is very likely that the forecast will
change as the day draws nearer.

While the model forecasts have different synoptic patterns next
Saturday, almost all of the solutions are dry. Max temps should
warm, but will likely still remain a few degrees below normal

&&

.AVIATION...17/0607Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep moist
layer up to around 7000 feet.

Overall low to moderate confidence in the 06Z TAFs due to
reduced confidence in CIGs preceding an approaching cold front,
and in CIGs/VSBY during and after the frontal passage. The timing
of rain and flight category changes may be off by 3 hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. Light showers
possible throughout the forecast period, but most likely from 20Z
Mon to 04Z Tue. 40-70% chance RA from 20Z to 00Z, with a 30%
chance of IFR or lower conds during this time. There is a 40
percent chance of east wind component reaching 10 to 12 kts
sometime 15Z to 21Z.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Light showers
possible throughout the forecast period, but most likely from 20Z
Mon to 00Z Tue. 40-70% chance RA from 20Z to 00Z along with a 30%
chance of IFR or lower conds during this time.

&&

.MARINE...16/810 PM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, winds are expected to increase (70-90
percent chance) to SCA levels between 900 PM and midnight, with
seas increasing to SCA levels on Monday. These conditions will
persist through late Tuesday night. Winds and seas will likely
fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a
moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions
developing on Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through early Monday
morning, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance
of SCA winds developing Monday afternoon and evening through late
Monday night. Short period seas will grow to near-SCA levels (4-5
feet at 5-6 seconds) Monday night. Conditions will likely fall
below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a
moderate- to- high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions
developing on Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters Monday and Monday night. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munore/Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox