127
FXUS66 KLOX 141701
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
901 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/717 AM.

An unusually strong storm system will bring widespread rain to the
area through Sunday. The period of most concern is tonight through
Saturday Night when a large area of heavy rain and isolated but
potentially severe thunderstorms will bring a moderate to high
risk of significant flash flooding, debris flows, and damaging
winds. After a very brief break, another storm will bring light to
moderate rain to the area Monday into Tuesday. Yet another storm
is possible for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/833 AM.

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, DEBRIS
FLOWS, AND DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

***UPDATE***

POTENTIAL IMPACTS:
The period of most concern is tonight through Saturday Night.
During this time, folks should be prepared for ample traffic
incidents, delays, and a few road closures. This includes a few
flooded roads, freeway lanes, and onramps and offramps. Canyon
roads, especially the most vulnerable ones like Topanga Canyon,
will likely see mudslide and rockslides. In and near recent burn
scars, at least shallow debris flows will occur which would impact
roads, with a moderate risk of significant flows blocking or
damaging roads and impacting structures. This includes the
Palisades, Eaton, and Bridge burn areas which have the highest
threat. In creeks and rivers, the flows will be heavy with anyone
in or near those channels at risk of being swept away. There will
be an area of heaviest rain, but we do not know for sure exactly
where that will be. Wherever it sets up, expect all these impacts
to be amplified, including a risk for a neighborhood or two
experiencing shallow water spilling into businesses and homes. In
addition to the water risks, there is a significant threat for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but
damaging winds and or a brief tornado.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
Avoid the roads, stay indoors as much as possible, and stay aware
of your environment. If you have to drive, allow extra time as
traffic will be increased due to slippery roads, low visibility,
and localized flooding. If you are near a burn scar, heed the
advice of local officials as they know your area best. Reschedule
and avoid outdoor activities. If you are outside and hear thunder,
see lightning, experience sudden wind shifts, or a sudden
increase in rain intensity, head indoors immediately and stay away
from windows. Stay out of, and far away from, any streams,
rivers, and canyons - especially campers. Avoid parking near tall
trees. Be ready for sudden power outages. Boaters, please stay in
safe harbor. For everyone, stay tuned to your local news outlet
and weather.gov for any updates.

UPDATED DETAILS:
While there remains some uncertainty in terms of timing and
placement of the heaviest rain, all available guidances remain
locked in for an increase in rain coverage and intensity tonight
through Saturday Night. Peak rain rates during this period of most
concern will likely be in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour range over
a large portion of our area, with 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour
elsewhere. When considering the rain we have already seen and will
continue to see today, which should precondition the ground and
lower the bar of what sort of additional heavy rain is needed to
trigger flash flooding, the risk for significant and potentially
damaging flooding continues to be moderate to high with the
expected rain rates. The current Flood Watches look good and there
are no immediate plans for changes. In terms of the severe
weather threat, we continue to see a number of parameters favoring
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing localized damaging
winds and or a brief tornado. This include updraft helicity, which
the HREF suite of models all point to Los Angeles County having
the highest risk with values that are about as high as we have
seen for this area. This does not guarantee a tornado, and 99% of
the population will NOT see these conditions, but the risk exists
for a very localized high impact situation.

***From Previous Discussion***

...AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR IMPACTS
MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...

Part one of the storm system is now over the area. Currently the
heaviest rain is focused over SBA county. The front will then
slowly move to the east with heavier rain moving over VTA county
towards dawn and over LA county mid morning. The rain will then
taper off in the afternoon as the front pushes out of the area.
Currently about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain has fallen over coastal
SLO county and western SBA county. VTA county has only seen about
a quarter inch of rain with the exception of slopes north of Ojai
where up to an inch has fallen. As expected the SBA south coast
has received the most rain anywhere from an inch to in excess of 4
inches.

Part two of the storm will start this evening. An upper low
currently to the west of Pt Conception will move to the SW through
the day. This evening it will swing up to the ENE. This will put
an area of southerly flow and max PVA over the area for at least
18 hours. The max intensity of the this system will be over LA and
VTA county. The PVA max will generate a threat of TSTMs through
the period with the best chc occuring Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings continue to indicate favorable profiles for TSTMs and
severe weather, including a small chance of weak tornados, strong
and gusty winds, very heavy rain and hail. During this 24 hour
period (6pm tonight to 6pm Saturday) 2 to 3 inches of rain will
likely fall across the flat portions of the csts/vlys south of Pt
Conception with 2 to 4 inches likely across the coastal slopes.
Areas north of Pt Conception and the far interior will likely
receive 1 to 1.5 inches. Rainfall rates will mostly be near a half
inch per hour but the heavier bursts will be near 1 inch per hour
and these rates are capable of producing flash flooding and a
flood watch is in effect until Saturday evening everywhere
south of SLO County except for the Cuyama Valley. The watch does
include Catalina Island and the Channel Islands.

Snow will not be much of an issue with snow levels over 7500 ft.

The rain will slowly taper off Saturday night and by mid morning
Sunday the area should be fairly dry. Another system riding into
the area will bring an increasing chc of rain later Sunday
afternoon (Central Coast) and overnight south of Pt Conception).
This system will not be nearly as wet as the current system.

Needless to say with all of the rain and clouds, max temps will be
well below normal with almost all max temps across the csts/vly
reaching only the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/309 AM.

Both the GFS and the EC forecast another upper low to rotate down
into the through the area on Monday and Tuesday. This is a colder
system with lower PWATs (.5-.75 inches). So while there will be
periods of rain through the period the two day rainfall totals
will likely range from a half to three quarters of an inch (with
some higher amounts in the mtns and lesser amounts across the far
interior). Since this is a cooler system, snow levels will be
lower likely around 6000 ft.

Wednesday looks dry for now, but the storm pattern will persist
and another upper low will bring a chc of rain to the area Thu and
Fri.

Max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the
csts/vlys which is 6 to 12 degrees blo normals. Wednesday will be
the exception with its drier and a little sunnier conditions
allowing highs to warm into the mid and upper 60s with a few lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1700Z.

At 1650Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. However, there was a
deep moist layer up to 10000 feet.

Overall, low confidence in 18Z TAF package. High confidence in
periods of rain for all sites through the period, but low
confidence in timing of flight category changes (and the flight
categories themselves). CIGs and VSBYs will vary from VFR levels
down to IFR through the period.

There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms for TAF sites south of
Point Conception after 22Z. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty/erratic outflow
winds.

KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.
Through 11Z...there is a 50-60% chance of easterly winds above
8 knots...then a 60-80% chance of easterly winds above 10 knots
11Z-17Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...14/728 AM.

There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters south of Point Conception from late this afternoon through
Saturday night. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing brief heavy rain, dangerous cloud to surface lightning,
gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas and possible
waterspouts.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday morning, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for
all of the Outer Waters. From Saturday afternoon through Sunday,
high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 70-90% chance of a
combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, high
confidence in SCA level seas, but winds should remain below SCA
levels. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is
a 60-80% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, though lower confidence in winds
on Saturday. For today, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds. For tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels. On Saturday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA
level southeasterly winds, with a 30% chance of brief Gale Force
winds. However, the strength and direction of winds may vary on
Saturday as models are not handling the low pressure system
placement well. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a
60-80% chance of SCA level winds.

&&

.BEACHES...14/728 AM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring
hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California
today through at least Saturday morning. In addition to the
west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty southerly
winds which will add a southerly wind swell component to the surf.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central Coast and
the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX and
LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed
for the LA county beaches today and tonight.

Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across
all the beaches at times from this afternoon through Saturday
night. Any thunderstorms that form will be capable of producing
locally strong winds, small hail, dangerous lightning, heavy
rainfall, and possibly even a weak/brief tornado.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
      Saturday evening for zones
      87-88-346>348-353>358-362-366>375-377>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening for
      zones 349>352-376. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox