556
FXUS66 KLOX 250434
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
834 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/123 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next
weekend with areas of gusty north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...24/831 PM.

An upper-level ridge of high pressure aloft continues to build
into the West Coast. Mostly clear skies prevail this evening,
except for some low clouds creeping into interior San Luis Obispo
County from the Central Valley. A shallow marine layer depth is
starting to form across the region as subsidence aloft is pressing
down on top of the marine intrusion. The marine air will be forced
fit into a tighter window and this will likely develop (at least)
patches of dense fog overnight tonight and into Tuesday morning
closer to the coast. The latest AMDAR soundings from KLAX
indicate a 600 foot deep marine layer depth in place this
evening, likely sloping to 400 feet deep along the Central Coast
of California. A dense fog advisory could be needed once enough
confidence is high to issue one.

Offshore flow will continue reestablish through Tuesday, after
weakening today. A warming and drying trend will develop across
the region and compressional heating take place. More molecules of
air will be forced to fit into an area as they crash down to the
surface, and in doing so, the air mass will be forced to heat up
inline with gas law principles. Outside of dense fog, clear skies
will likely dominate most of the region tonight and into Tuesday.
As a result, wind-sheltered areas will be quite cool tonight as
clear skies and a drier air mass will permit radiative cooling
processes to be more efficient. In some locations in the interior
valleys, areas of frost will develop. A frost advisory has been
added for the Antelope Valley floor and the interior valleys in
San Luis Obispo County, especially the San Juan and Shandon
Valleys. This advisory will be in effect from 2 am PST tonight
through 9 am Tuesday.

***From Previous Discussion***

High pressure is starting to build over the eastern Pacific and
this in conjunction with some offshore flow will create several
degrees of warming in most areas through at least Wednesday.
Widespread 70s are expected across coast and valleys both days,
but peaking on Wednesday with possibly even lower 80s in the
warmest areas. Per usual with offshore flow, especially in winter,
interior areas like the Antelope Valley, mountains, and far
interior SLO County will be much cooler. There is very little
upper level wind support with this event so while there will be
some purely gradient driven winds across the some coast and valley
areas, in general wind speeds should stay below advisory levels.
The primary exception to that will be the mountain areas,
including the Santa Lucias, where some local gusts to 45 mph will
be possible. This Santa Ana event has a little more northerly
component to it, so areas that are more exposed to the north such
as portions of the mountains and Santa Clarita as as well as the
San Fernando Valley will probably experience slightly stronger
winds than the last event, while other areas such as portions of
Ventura County will be slightly weaker.

Offshore flow is expected to weaken on Thanksgiving. Will still
likely have some breezy northeast winds in the same areas in the
morning but decreasing earlier in the day. Also, temperatures will
likely be a degree or two cooler across coast and valleys as the
sea breeze is allowed to begin earlier and push farther inland.
Increasing high clouds expected during Thanksgiving Day but no
rain.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/219 PM.

3-6 degrees of additional cooling is expected Friday as high
pressure along the West coast weakens and gradients continue to
trend onshore. Areas near the coast will notice the most cooling.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty next weekend but a vast
majority of the ensemble solutions still favor a more inside track
to the next system. As a result, roughly 80% of all the ensemble
solutions still indicate little or no rain across our area. In
these patterns there is typically slightly higher chances for
some light precip in the mountains, potentially with lower snow
levels, but that will depend on the track of the low. For now
there is a 20% chance of showers next weekend and will likely
have to wait a few more days before there is increasing confidence
either way. At the very least temperatures should remain on the
cooler side next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0050Z.

Around 2355Z, the marine layer depth was around 700 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was around 1600 feet with a
temperature around 15 degrees Celsius. There was another inversion
up to around 2200 feet.

High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals and
Los Angeles County valley terminals. Moderate confidence in all
remaining terminals.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a
moderate-to-high chance of LIFR to IFR conditions at coastal
terminals and terminals north of Point Conception between 06Z and
16Z.

KLAX...There is a 50 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions
after 06Z. There is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR conditions
between 10Z and 15Z. VFR conditions will develop between 16Z and
18Z, but there is a 20 percent chance of MVFR visibilities through
20Z. Any easterly winds will very likely be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
10 percent chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities between
13Z and 15Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM.

Seas will linger above or near 10 feet more than 20 NM from shore
through tonight before decreasing well below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) criteria. Conditions will remain relatively mild nearshore
through Thanksgiving week, but there is a moderate chance of
north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura
to Santa Monica Tuesday through Thursday, with strongest winds
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.

Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels across the Outer
Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the
Central Coast and in the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will
increase Saturday afternoon and night, to just below SCA levels.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is
a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including
nearshore. Seas will likely increase to 10-12 feet across the
outer waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the Southern California
Bight. There is a low to moderate chance of widespread Gale Force
Winds. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox