337
FXUS66 KLOX 140650
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1050 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/109 PM.

A large storm system will move into the Central Coast this
afternoon and will continue further south tonight into Friday.
The storm will generate periods of moderate to heavy rain this
evening through Saturday, and possibly into early next week.
Flooding of roadways and burn scars is possible, especially
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...13/910 PM.

...AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR IMPACTS
MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...

Confidence is increasing that a major storm system will impact the
area with periods of heavy rain tonight through Saturday due to a
slow moving system that is cutting off from the jet stream and
has PW`s approaching 1.5" which is extremely high for this time of
year. This has been a complicated system but computer projections
continue to indicate two distinct periods of rain moving through
the area. The first being tonight into Friday morning, most
impactful west of LA County and heaviest across southern Santa
Barbara County and the Ventura County mountains where 3 to 4
inches of rain is possible with rain rates between a half and one
inch per hour. Current radar Margery as of 830 pm this evening
already showing areas of light to moderate rain across Santa
Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, with lighter shower activity
across Ventura and LA counties. During the past 30 minutes,
rainfall rates have increased to one quarter to one half inch per
hour across western portions of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
counties, and are expected to increase during the next few hours.
This has resulted in the issuance of a flood advisory for these
areas, with roadway flooding likely becoming more common through
the night. The northern portions of the Santa Lucia Mountains
could also see around 3 inches of rain through tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible as well that will contribute to the
higher rain rates but no severe weather is expected with this
first impulse.

The first band of rain will slowly shift into eastern Ventura
county and LA County Friday and Friday night but rain rates are
expected to decrease as the this band moves farther away from the
main upper low and into less unstable air. Not expecting any
significant issues other than some wet roadways during this
period.

The second part of the storm Saturday into Saturday night has the
potential to be the most significant, though there is also much
more uncertainty with it due to the upper low being cutoff. A
majority of the ensemble solutions do show an additional 1-3
inches of rain falling as the main upper low pivots towards the
the coast, though it`s worth noting that there are roughly 10% of
the solutions that show as much as an additional 3-5 inches of
rain. Forecast soundings from Santa Maria to Long Beach indicate
favorable profiles for thunderstorms and severe weather, which
would include a small chance of weak tornados, strong and gusty
winds, very heavy rain (possibly even locally exceeding one inch
per hour), and hail. The ultimate path of the upper low will
likely determine if and where these occur but for now they are all
in play for all areas. For now, Flood Watches have been issued
for everywhere south of SLO County except for the Cuyama Valley.
In evening update, have also included Catalina Island and Channel
Islands into the Flood Watch.

There will be breaks in the rainfall, sometimes for several hours
and rainfall is expected to taper off by later Saturday night,
assuming the upper low behaves and moves into Nevada Sunday
afternoon. Rain chances continue in the forecast through Sunday as
many of the ensembles maintain enough low level moisture and
instability to trigger some light precip but there should be no
significant impacts after early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...13/222 PM.

The rainy pattern is expected to continue into early next week as
models indicate a much weaker system arriving Monday with amounts
mostly under a half inch. Can`t rule out some light showers
continuing into Tuesday as the upper low moves east but lingering
moisture remains.

Good confidence that there will be little day to day changes in
the temperatures. Max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid
60s across the csts/vlys which is 6 to 12 degrees blo normals.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0647Z.

At 0505 at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion. There
was a deep moist layer up to at least 6000 ft.

Low confidence in all TAFs as a cold front moves through the
area. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as periods of heavy rain
move through the area. MVFR cigs are mostly likely but IFR conds
will occur esp 1-2SM vsbys. Mostly MVFR or low VFR cigs/vis are
more likely aft 21Z.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms from KSBA northward thru
12Z. After 12Z, there will be a 10-20% Chance of thunderstorms
south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025
cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at
times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM
vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR. High confidence in
easterly winds above 8 knots through 21Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025
cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at
times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM
vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR.

&&

.MARINE...13/914 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for
all of the Outer Waters. Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance
of Gale force southeasterly winds through this evening. On Sunday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 70-90% chance of a combination
of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night,
high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas.
Additionally, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds through
this evening. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there
is a 60-80% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night,
there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the Santa
Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels
elsewhere. For Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level
southeasterly winds. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a
60-80% chance of SCA level winds.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters through Saturday night. For tonight and Friday morning, the
thunderstorm threat will exist from around Point Conception
northward. For Friday night through Saturday night, the chances
for thunderstorms will shift to the coastal waters south of Point
Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop would be capable of
producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic outflow winds,
locally rough seas and possible waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...13/1231 PM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring
hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California late
this evening through at least Saturday morning. In addition to
the west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty
southerly winds which will add a southerly wind swell component
to the surf. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central
Coast and the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX
and LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed
for the LA county beaches, beginning Friday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch remains in effect from late Friday night through
      Saturday evening for zones
      87-88-346>348-353>358-362-366>375-377>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
      340>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening for
      zones 349>352-376. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/RS
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox