295
FXUS66 KLOX 191159
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
359 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...19/359 AM.

Some showers will linger today over the southern waters and
interior mountains. The next storm will bring widespread light to
moderate rain and mountains snow Thursday into Friday. Cool
conditions will persist through Friday. Northeast winds and high
pressure aloft will push temperatures back to normal this weekend
continuing through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...19/358 AM.

With ample clear skies and a cold air mass over the area, the
soggy ground will result in pockets of dense fog over the colder
valleys this morning, but unsure how expansive that will be.
Based on the minimal extent at this hour, any dense fog will
likely be very localized.

The low pressure system that brought the rain on Sunday and
Monday is now centered over San Diego County. A few showers formed
between Catalina and Orange County closest to that core, but they
should decrease and slide to the south over the next few hours.
With the position of the low, the flow aloft will be northeasterly.
While the majority of the area will be rain free today, there is
moisture in that flow, which will bring chances of showers to the
LA and Ventura County interior mountains and valleys today. Those
showers could come in the form of showers from central San
Bernardino county moving into our area, or the daytime afternoon
heating playing with that moist flow to form a few cumulus
showers. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, but the chance is
under 10%. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s, which is about 10 degrees below normal.

In what seems to be a broken and skipping record, yet another
storm system will quickly replace our most recent one. A long and
narrow cold front is just off the Oregon Coast, and will sweep
down the California coast tonight through Thursday. Widespread
light to moderate rain will affect all four of our counties on
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the center of the low pressure
system driving this front will quickly drop south and over north-
central California. This fairly unusual development will reverse
the typical evolution of our cold fronts and actually enhance it
as it moves from north-to-south. The higher totals and rates will
be over LA County as a result, instead of San Luis Obispo County.
As the low continues to dive southward into San Diego by Friday
morning, LA and Ventura Counties will continue to be dealing with
showers well after the front passes. With 500 millibar
temperatures around 25C, there should be a few thunderstorms or
thunderstorm- like cells - which could bring some very localized
but strong and swirling wind gusts.

Rain totals and rates are a bit tricky. Fairly confident that San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will have lighter totals
(0.25 to 0.50 inches common, except 0.5 to 1.0 inches in some
favored mountains) and rates (0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour).
Impacts should be fairly minor. For Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, the most likely outcome is for moderate amounts (0.5 to
1.0 inches except 1 to 2 inches in favored mountains and hills)
and rates (0.20 to 0.33 inches per hour). The convective and
dynamic nature of the proximity of the low brings the potential of
double those amounts, but moderate easterly flow which can
evaporate some of the rain brings a potential for half those
amounts. The best estimate is for those competing factors to
generally cancel each other out, but that is far from certain. As
a result, impacts will likely be minor to moderate, with a focus
on road issues and enhanced mudslides and rockslides due to the
soggy soils. If the higher end scenario pans out, still think the
potential for major impacts is quite small, but some localized
shallow debris flows and flooded road closures would likely
materialize.

Snow levels will be above 6,000 feet for most of the
precipitation, but will drop to as low at 5,000 feet on Friday.
Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches is the most likely outcome for
elevations above 6000 or 6500 feet. Winter Weather Advisory will
probably be issued for the San Gabriels and Mount Pinos areas,
with some snowy and icy road impacts.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/357 AM.

There is a possibility that the Thursday and Friday low pressure
system, which does cut off from the prevailing jet stream, lingers
in the region on Saturday. Cannot discount additional isolated
showers during the day on Saturday, but the trends will certainly
be going down. Eventually that low will move on its merry way to
the east, and get replaced by a small but good-enough high
pressure ridge. With weak offshore flow and pressure gradients,
temperatures will climb back to around normal by Sunday and
Monday, when highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common.
Little change expected through the Thanksgiving holiday. Not
seeing any significant signals for rain through at least Black
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1150Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

There is a 10-20% chance of -SHRA on Wednesday for KWJF KPMD.
30% chance of -SHRA at KPRB, KSBP after 09Z Thursday.

LIFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue at KPRB through
16Z Wed (+/- 1 hour).

Chances for LIFR conditions through 16Z Wed: KOXR/KCMA (15%),
KBUR/KVNY/KWJF (20%).

Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions with light winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Good confidence in VFR
conditions with east wind component remaining under 8 knots
through 12Z Thursday. Then, 30% chance of reaching 8 knots thru
end of forecast period. In addition, MVFR CIGs 020-030 with -DZ
or even -SHRA possible during this timeframe.

KBUR...There is a 20% chance of LIFR FG through 16Z Wednesday.
Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions and lighter than
usual winds.

&&

.MARINE...19/1257 AM.

Seas should continue to decrease and remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday morning. Then,
another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across
the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of
Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve
some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Wind
directions will vary considerably as the storm moves through the
region, with 20-30 kt winds common as early as Thursday afternoon
into the weekend.

Winds may locally reach 21 kts across the Santa Barbara Channel
and near the Channel Islands this afternoon & evening. A few
showers with a 5% chance of a thunderstorm is expected across
PZZ655 through this morning. The strongest cells will be capable
of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, locally
rough seas, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, and even a
remote chance for a waterspout.

&&

.BEACHES...19/1253 AM.

A 12-16 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the
region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet
across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast
through the weekend, peaking Friday. Peak surf will flirt with
the 7ft threshold for west-facing beaches across the Ventura
coastline on Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

High Surf Advisories are in effect from Thursday evening through
Sunday evening along the Central Coast. Beach erosion with
isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest
facing beaches, especially from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through
Sunday.

Will let future shifts decide if a Surf Advisory is necessary for
the Ventura Coastline (40% chance).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Phillips
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox