031
FXUS66 KLOX 231958
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1158 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/307 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/904 AM.

***UPDATE***

Not much for the update this morning as a quiet weather pattern
will continue into the beginning of this week. Dense fog will
continue across the Salinas Valley through late this morning.
Offshore flow has been trending more onshore and will likely flip
to weakly onshore to the east, while offshore flow from the north
will continue but be relatively weak. We`re looking at several
degrees of warming across the interior and a few degrees of
warming across coastal valleys. At the coasts, we`re expecting a
few degrees of cooling.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper-level low responsible for our active weather the last
couple of days is exiting the region and will get absorbed into
the northern branch of the jet stream. This will result in the
weakening of NE flow over our area. In fact, there may be just
enough of an onshore push to allow for the development of low
clouds Sunday night into Monday morning across portions of the
LA Basin. N-S gradients will remain sufficient enough to keep
interior mtn locations slightly above to above normal and breezy
at times. Halted downslope warming will result in coastal areas
averaging slightly below normal Today, with an additional degree
or two of cooling on Monday. In addition, low clouds with patchy
fog could develop across the Salinas valley during the early
morning hours.

A relatively fast-moving weak upper level trough will move across
the far northern portion of the Great Basin. After it passes, the
pressure gradients are expected to shift back offshore starting
Tuesday. Even with light to moderate gradient values, the lack of
upper-level support will make it difficult to reach advisory level
winds across the mountainous interior. Better confidence in above
normal heights combined with diminished onshore push resulting in
a warming trend.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/306 AM.

A high pressure ridge along with light to moderate offshore flow
will allow temperatures to continue to warm through Thanksgiving.
Due to lack of upper-level support, substantial Santa Ana winds
are very unlikely. Even across high elevation, wind-prone areas
reaching advisory level winds will be a difficult task. Current
ensemble suites among several models support this. The most likely
solution will be a mild to warm day with clear skies creating the
right conditions for a gobblefest on Thanksgiving day.

Still noteworthy amounts of uncertainty regarding the potential
for the system next weekend. The 00Z EPS/GEFS/EC-AIFS have shift
the trough axis back further east, but the EC-AIFS still is the
least enthusiatic. Will have to monitior to see if this starts
a trend. The magnitude & position of the Pacific-North American
oscillation and the characteristics of the rossby wavelength will
have substantial influence in determining the location of trough
- and its impacts, if any do occur.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1958Z.

At 1930Z at KLAX, the marine layer inversion was 1200 feet.
with a top of the inversion at 2500 feet with a temperature
of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in TAF
forecasts. Through this afternoon, high confidence in VFR
conditions for all sites. For tonight, high confidence in KWJF and
KPMD, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley sites as
there are increasing probabilities of marine layer low clouds and
fog returning.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through early this
evening, high confidence in VFR conditions. For tonight, high
confidence in return of CIG and VSBY restrictions, but low
confidence in timing (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts)
and flight category (categories could range from IFR to VLIFR).
Easts wind component of 5-7 knots still on track to continue
through at least 21z before shifting to sea breeze.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions developing 12Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/131 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. A
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
will continue through Monday afternoon. From Monday night through
Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from
Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Wednesday, there is a 50%
chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa
Monica. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black/Lewis
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox