284
FXUS66 KLOX 012301
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
301 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/156 AM.

Warmer temperatures are expected today as offshore flow returns
with areas of gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop
Tuesday and Wednesday before Santa Ana winds return Thursday with
warmer temperatures into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...01/100 PM.

The moderate Santa Ana event was waning early this afternoon with
most places within the Santa Ana Wind corridor likely falling
below wind advisory thresholds by 3 pm, the expiration time of the
Wind Advisory. The break in the wind will be quite short lived as
a second moderate Santa Ana event is likely by around noon
Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday. Slightly stronger
upper level support with this event may bring a bit more
widespread 50 to locally 60 mph gusts across prone mountain and
foothill areas. Elsewhere, gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common,
potentially extending into the Antelope valley (Wednesday).

Where and when winds drop off the dry air mass will support some
of the coolest overnight lows we have experienced this season
with lows in the 30s and 40s common on colder nights with a
smattering of 20s for the far interior and at high elevations.
Freeze Warnings are in place for tonight for the Antelope Valley
and Interior San Luis Obispo with a Frost Advisory in place for
the Cuyama Valley. If you live in these areas, take steps to
protect any vulnerable animals or plants. Additional Frost/Freeze
products will likely be needed in the next few days, especially
Thursday and Friday mornings, in the wake of the second Santa Ana
Wind event.

Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail, outside of possible push of low
clouds and fog to coastal areas Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning ahead of the second Santa Ana wind event.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...01/100 PM.

Rain free conditions look to continue well into next week. There
is a 50-60 percent chance of a strong ridge building overhead into
early next week with weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions at
times. In this scenario, widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid
80s would be in play for coasts and coastal valleys. If the ridge
is weaker or offshore flow does not materialize (40-50 percent
chance), more seasonably warm temperatures (60s and 70s) would be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1721Z.

At 1642Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites. NE offshore winds are
expected to impact: KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF. Wind gusts
could be off by 5 kts.

Light LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous
terrain across Ventura and LA Counties through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. MVFR VSBYs are possible
through 20Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected thru fcst pd.

&&

.MARINE...01/101 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high
confidence in winds and seas below SCA levels. For Wednesday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Friday and Saturday
with a chance of SCA conds on Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro
bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from
Ventura to west of Santa Monica, SCA level offshore winds are
expected this morning into Tuesday morning. However, there will
likely be a brief lull in winds for a few hours late this
afternoon. There is a 30% chance of another round of offshore
winds for this same area Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below
SCA levels through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...01/101 PM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday
morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the
Central Coast (8 to 12 feet) and Ventura coastline (7 feet).
Surf heights up to 6 feet can be expected elsewhere. Also,
Very High Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all
beaches.

The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 12 PM
each day.

The Ventura coastline has the greatest overlap of high tides and
surf heights on Wednesday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued from 3AM to 10AM for enhanced impacts. Please
see CFWLOX for more details.

Beach Hazard statements have been issued for Santa Barbara
and LA County Coastline from Tuesday through Saturday morning.
Elevated surf will be highest Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 3 AM PST Tuesday
      through Saturday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to noon PST
      Thursday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Lund
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox