436
FXUS66 KLOX 212203
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/1258 PM.

Scattered light showers are possible today into early Saturday in
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, mainly in the mountains, along
with gusty east winds. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the
weekend and lasting through at least Thanksgiving. High
temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/133 PM.

Southern California is still being influenced by a strong upper
low that continues to drift south into Mexican waters. As a result
of this movement, the winds aloft have shifted from south to
northeast, creating a Santa Ana wind event that will increase in
strength tonight and Saturday across portions of LA and Ventura
Counties. While there is still some moisture around, the shift to
a Santa Ana pattern means that downsloping winds off the mountains
and into the valleys and coastal areas will lessen the chances for
any additional rainfall at lower elevations. However, in the
mountains and even the Antelope Valley scattered showers are
possible into at least early Saturday morning with show above 6000
feet. Showers are expected to be light with minimal if any
impacts. The other impact from the Santa Ana pattern will be
warming temperatures Saturday by 4-8 degrees from today.

Light onshore flow will be returning to the area Sunday and
Monday that will cool off the coastal areas slightly but most
valleys will notice little change. With the shift to onshore flow
there is at least a small chance of some marine layer stratus
developing but forecast soundings currently are not very favorable
for that. Otherwise, skies expected to be mostly clear Sunday and
Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/202 PM.

The rest of Thanksgiving week is expected to be mild or even
slightly above normal as pressure gradients shift back to
offshore by 2-5mb based on the latest ensemble gradient charts.
Thanksgiving Day is expected to be sunny with highs around 70 near
the coast and approaching 80 in some of the warmer valleys in
LA/Ventura Counties.

Looking ahead models are still indicating the next weather system
to move into the area later next weekend. Earlier model runs had
been favoring another potential strong system but more recent
solutions have trended more towards an inside slider pattern as
the 12z GFS/EC models are showing. At the very least temperatures
will trend cooler next weekend, but at this point confidence in
any one model run is very low.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1951Z.

At 1853Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep
moist layer extending to over 6000 feet.

Low confidence in all TAFs through 21Z with frequent changes in
both cig and vis. Better confidence in VFR conds aft 21Z. Wind
gusts may be off by 5-10 kt during peak speeds at KOXR, KCMA,
KSMO, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 21Z. Cig will vary
frequently with cigs possible anywhere from BKN008 to BKN040. Good
confidence that there will be at least a 8kt east wind component
through at least 02Z Sat with a 18kt east wind component possible
through 15Z Sat.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 21Z. Cig will vary
frequently with cigs possible anywhere from BKN008 to BKN040.
Better confidence in VFR cigs aft 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/913 AM.

Low confidence in forecast, especially regarding winds. It is
best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions
improve this weekend.

A storm system is stalled inside the Southern California Bight. It
will bring periods of gusty winds, a large west-northwest swell
(especially for the Outer Waters), rain, and isolated
thunderstorms to the waters today.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
affect most of the coastal waters through much of the weekend.
Look for seas of 10-15 feet across the Outer Waters and the
nearshore Central Coast Waters, and 4 to 7 feet inside the
Southern California Bight. Wind directions will vary considerably
through the course of the storm which will will result in rough,
confused seas, especially south of Point Conception.

NE winds will prevail through Saturday morning as nearly
stationary storm system spins inside the Southern California
Bight. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica (20-30
knots), but NE winds gusting up to 25 knots will occur nearshore
from Palos Verdes south through Orange County. NE winds may reach
the Channel Islands with much lower chances for Catalina Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke/Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox