933
FXUS66 KLOX 161809
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1009 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/1245 AM.

Look for partly to mostly skies with a chance of showers today.
Afternoon highs will be well below normal. Another cooler system
will bring rain to most of the area Monday with showers continuing
into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain
with warmer temperatures. Another storms is slated to arrive next
Thursday and linger into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/1008 AM.

Residual moisture and instability from yesterday`s storm
continued to produce numerous showers across the region last night
and into this morning. Some of these showers have produce brief
heavy downpours, generally less than 15 minute time periods. As a
result, flood advisories had been issued for portions of Santa
barbara, Ventura, and LA counties, due to the continue threat of
minor roadway flooding, as well as additional rockslides/mudslide
activity, and shallow debris flows in recent burn scars.  Due to
the abundant rainfall the past couple of days, it will not take
as much rainfall to cause additional flooding/rockslide
conditions, as well as trees being more easily blown down with
any convective bursts. A couple of the storms had some weak
rotation this morning, so will also be monitoring for rotating
storms the next few hours. High resolution model data indicates
the highest probability of brief heavy downpours continuing until
around 2 pm for LA/Ventura counties. Areas that receive these
brief heavier downpours could see local rainfall rates of 0.25 to
0.50 inches per hour, much of which could fall in a 15 minute time
frame.

The next projected storm is still on track to impact San Luis
Obispo county by late tonight, then pushing through the rest of
the forecast areas on Monday. Latest model runs do show some
instability along the cold front, so a small threat of
thunderstorms may need to be introduced during that time frame on
Monday.

***From previous discussion ***

Another upper low with an associated cold front will move into nrn
CA later tonight. The front with its light rain will begin to move
into the Central Coast in the predawn hours Monday. The front will
sweep through forecast area during the day and will exit LA county
in the early evening. There will likely be a 3 or hour period of
rain with the front. This system is colder than the Fri/Sat storm
and has no sup tropical moisture tap so the rainfall totals and
intensities will be much less. Max rainfall rates will top out at
a half inch per hour with quarter inch per hour rates much more
common. Rainfall amounts will range from .75" to 1.5" with the
highest amounts along the south facing coastal slopes. Snow levels
will be above 7000 ft during the day over LA and VTA counties. The
colder system, clouds and rain will all team up to lower cst/vly
temps to within a couple degrees of 60.

Shower activity will continue overnight in the wake of the cold
front. Snow levels will drop to 5000 ft and a couple inches of
snow is possible above 6000 ft. Rainfall amounts will not be
homogeneous at all but some areas could see a third of an inch of
extra rainfall.

The upper low does not move much at all on Tuesday and will sit to
the north of Kern county and spin some weak disturbances over the
area. There will be 20 to 30 percent chc of shower through the day
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The best chc of showers will
be across the north slopes, while places that have downsloping
under north flow conditions (southern SBA county and southern VTA
county) will see much less showers and rain. Rainfall totals
should not add up to much. Hgts overhead will only be 550 dam and
max temps will struggle to even reach 60.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/106 AM.

All mdls and ensembles fcst a small ridge to ride over the area on
Wednesday. In quite the change of pace the day will be dry and
there will be sunshine. Hgts rise to 568 dam. Max temps will bump
up 2 to 4 degrees across the area. Even with the warming max temps
across the csts/vlys will only be in the lower to mid 60s or 8 to
12 degrees blo normal.

Another system is slated to affect the state on Thursday and/or
Friday. There is still considerable disagreement on track and
speed of this system. The GFS takes a slower more over water
trajectory while the EC is faster and more inside. The EC-AI mdl
has been performing the best over the last couple of weeks and it
shows rain starting early Thursday and lasting into the evening
with a dry Friday. It is forecasting a half inch to an inch of
rain. The official forecast based on the entire ensemble based
probabilistic spread, however, calls for a 40 to 50 percent chc
of rain on Thursday and a 20 to 30 percent chc on Friday with
rainfall amounts of a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch.
This system is quite a few days away and is embedded in a fast
moving storm track, so it is very likely that the forecast will
change as the day draws nearer.

While the mdls forecast wildly different synoptic patterns next
Saturday, almost all of the solutions are dry. Max temps should
warm, but will likely still remain a few degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1656Z.

At around 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a
deep moist layer up to at least 10000 feet.

Low confidence in TAFs through 22Z and then fair confidence
through around 08Z Mon. Multiple SCT-BKN layers in the low MVFR,
high MVFR and low VFR categories will create variable cigs through
22Z along with a 25 percent chc of a shower.

Better confidence in TAFs aft 22Z with sct-bkn conds between 040
and 060. After 10Z Mon, showers and lower cigs will become likely
again, starting at northern sites first.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 22Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently between BKN015, BKN025 AND BKN035. There is a 25
percent chc of brief -SHRA. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8kt
east wind component through 20Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 22Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently between BKN015, BKN025 AND BKN035. There is a 25
percent chc of brief -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...16/328 AM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels, then there is a likely (60-80
percent) chance of SCA conditions developing tonight through late
Tuesday night. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels
for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate-to-high
(30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through early Monday
morning, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance
of SCA conditions developing on Monday and continuing through
early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA
levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate-to-
high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on
Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters south of Point Conception through mid-morning this
morning. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to surface
lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, and
possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox