144
FXUS66 KLOX 080440
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
840 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/824 PM.

Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a chance of
morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. A warming
trend will continue this week with well above normal temperatures
Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday.
Offshore winds will increase Monday into Tuesday, and are
expected to persist through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...07/821 PM.

Warming trend started today, with most coastal/valley areas
reporting high in the 70s, with few warm spots climbing into the
lower to mid 80s. Current satellite imagery showing some low
clouds and fog near Catalina Island, with a chance for those low
clouds to reach the southern coast of LA county late tonight into
Monday morning. Over the next few days, an upper level ridge of
high pressure, centered over the Eastern Pacific, will gradually
strengthen over the area. At the surface, weak to moderate
offshore gradients will prevail. As of 7 pm this evening, the LAX-
Daggett gradient was -2.4 mb while LAX-Bakersfield was -6 mb.

Forecast-wise, two main issues will be offshore winds and
temperatures. With respect to offshore winds, the offshore
pressure gradients will help generate some weak to locally
moderate north to northeast winds across typical wind prone areas
of Ventura/LA counties, as well as gusty offshore winds across
wind prone foothills and canyons of San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara counties. Offshore gradients to the north and east are
expected to peak on Tuesday morning, but throughout the short term
period, the upper level support remains rather weak. So, do not
anticipate any widespread advisory level winds through Tuesday but
a 30-40% chance of some advisories being needed for the Santa
Susana mountains.

As for temperatures, the combination of the upper level ridge
strengthening and the offshore surface pressure gradients, a nice
warming trend will continue. By Tuesday and Wednesday, most areas
will be 10-15 degrees above normal with widespread 80+ degree
temperatures across the valleys and inland coastal plain. No
record-breaking temperatures are expected, but it will be rather
warm. As for overnight lows, it will be chilly in wind sheltered
areas.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/1258 PM.

Overall, the 12Z models have the same broad idea, but differ in
the details. However, the differences will have minimal impact on
the overall sensible weather.

Through the period, the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken.
At the surface, the offshore flow will weaken with weak diurnal
flow expected by the weekend. So, will anticipate a slight and
gradual cool down through the period with a decrease in
northeasterly winds. By the weekend, there is a decent chance
that the marine layer stratus/fog will return to the coastal
plain. Overall, just rather benign weather through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...07/2324Z.

At 2325Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1700 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Moderate confidence in KSBA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB after 07Z
Monday, due to uncertainty in potential arrival of low cigs.
otherwise high confidence for all TAFs. There is a 30% chance of
conds remaining VFR through the period at KLAX. There is a 30%
chance of VLIFR to LIFR conds at the specified aforementioned
sites, with conds potentially arriving as early as 06Z Mon for
KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB and around 09Z for KOXR and KSBA.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds
persisting through the period, otherwise LIFR-IFR conds will
likely arrive after 07z Mon. Any easterly winds will remain less
than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/839 PM.

For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially
across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz
Island during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters including the southern California bight and
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50%
of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa
Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each
night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccurring
on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA
levels.

There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters
through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and
coverage.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Thompson
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox