907
FXUS66 KLOX 031017
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/119 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds
to portions of southern California Wednesday morning through
Thursday. Cold overnight low temperatures will occur through the
work week, coldest Wednesday night into Thursday morning in wind
protected areas. A significant warming trend will begin this
weekend and peak next Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 to 20 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/154 AM.

A cold upper level trough is passing through the southern portion
if the Great Basin this morning, creating thick cirrostratus over
the region but no precipitation locally. The marine layer has
jumped up over 2500 feet and pressure gradients to the east have
gone from 2-3mb offshore to over 5mb onshore. Some stratus is
trying to develop but the thick high clouds are making that
difficult to form and also see from space.

The main story for today and Thursday is the rapid shift back to
offshore and the expected development of the next round of Santa
Ana winds across portions of Ventura and LA Counties and the Santa
Lucias. Given the existence of a 2500 foot marine layer there
remains still quite a bit of uncertainty when the northeast winds
will begin and how strong they will be. High res models seem to be
a little too strong for today given the current conditions,
especially near the coast, while confidence in increasing winds is
certainly higher inland and especially in the mountains. The most
likely outcome is for most of the advisory level winds to stay up
in the mountains today while lower elevations have breezy but sub
advisory level winds by mid to late morning. However, there`s a
20% chance of much lighter winds closer to the coast today.

Going into tonight and Thursday with zero marine layer influence
and more favorable easterly flow aloft the chances for 30-50mph
winds are much higher and would likely include gusty winds out to
Catalina Island as well, especially tonight.

This is again a fairly cool Santa Ana event so high temperatures
will top out in the lower 70s, warmest at the coast and coolest
across the far interior where highs will be in the 50s. And
overnight lows in wind protected locations will be quite cold,
hence the flurry of frost and freeze products out.

By Friday morning gradients will have swung back to onshore which
will result in cooling at the coast but warming inland. Overall
highs will be near or slightly above seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/212 AM.

Strong high pressure will be building rapidly over the eastern
Pacific this weekend and especially the first half of next week.
500mb heights are expected to exceed the 95th percentile and with
increasing offshore flow, particularly Monday through Wednesday,
temperatures locally are expected to be 10-20 degrees above
normal. Local historical guidance suggests widespread highs in
the 80s across coast and valleys with about a 20% chance of lower
90s. There will be some northerly flow developing Sunday night
through Tuesday that will bring dry and gusty winds to north
exposed areas which includes most of the mountains as well as
southern Santa Barbara County.

Temperatures will start cooling next Thursday and Friday but still
well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0222Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer, and no inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and
KSBA, KWJF, and KPMD. At KPRB, KSMX, and KSBA there is a 10
percent chance of IFR-MVFR cigs from 13-16Z Wed.

Low to moderate confidence for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, KLGB,
KBUR, and KVNY. Arrival of any cigs may be off by 2-3 hours from
forecast and may be off by 1 category at times. There is also a
10-20% chance that no cigs form at sites where they are
forecasted. Short-lived IFR- MVFR conditions are possible (20%
chance) between 12Z-16Z Wed at KBUR and KVNY, and there is a 10%
chance of brief dense fog (V/LIFR) conditions across the LA Basin
from 13Z-16Z Wed.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in TAF, cigs may for between
BKN008-BKN025, with a 20 percent chance of VFR conditions through
the period. East winds are possible from 10Z Wed to 20Z Wed, with
a 30-40% chance of the east wind component exceeding 6-8kt.
Best chance for stronger east winds is around 13Z to 17Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 20% chance of
BKN008-BKN025 cigs between 12Z-17Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...02/942 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate to low confidence in the current
forecast. The NW swell came in somewhat lower than expected,
therefore Small Craft Advisories were canceled for the outer
waters south of Point Sal. Some localized winds may gust near SCA
levels at times tonight, but should be short-lived. Then winds
and seas should mostly remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels Thursday through Saturday, with winds increasing to near
SCA levels at times, mainly Friday night and Saturday night.

For the nearshore waters, easterly winds are expected to develop
from the Ventura County Coast into the Santa Barbara Channel late
morning to early Wednesday afternoon. Localized gusts near SCA
levels will be possible through the afternoon hours. Then there
is a 40 to 50 percent chance of SCA level winds with short- period
seas developing late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Northeast Santa Ana wind will be the strongest near the coastline
between Ventura Harbor and Santa Monica. Late Thursday through
Saturday, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below
SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM this morning to 3
      PM PST Thursday for zones
      88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zones 343-344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PST Thursday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Phillips/Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox