228
FXUS66 KLOX 162237
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
237 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/1245 AM.

Look for partly to mostly skies with a chance of showers today.
Afternoon highs will be well below normal. Another cooler system
will bring rain to most of the area Monday with showers continuing
into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain
with warmer temperatures. Another storms is slated to arrive next
Thursday and linger into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...16/227 PM.

Residual moisture and instability from yesterday`s storm
continued to produce numerous showers across the region last night
and today. Some of these showers have produced brief heavy
downpours, generally less than 15 minute time periods. As a
result, flood advisories remain in effect this afternoon across
LA/Ventura counties, due to the continued threat of minor roadway
flooding, as well as additional rockslides/mudslide activity, and
a small threat of minor/shallow debris flows in recent burn
scars. Due to the abundant rainfall the past couple of days, it
will not take as much rainfall to cause additional
flooding/rockslides, as well as trees being more easily blown down
with any convective bursts.

The next projected storm is still on track to impact the region
late tonight through Tuesday. A progressive cold front is expected
to bring steady moderate rain to the region starting late tonight
in San Luis Obispo County pushing through the remainder of the
forecast area on Monday. Within the cold front, there will likely
be embedded areas of brief heavier rainfall, especially across
south and southwest facing foothills and coastal slopes, with the
highest risk for the Santa Ynez mountains and western Ventura
mountains. There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms within
the cold front as latest NAM model indicting modest instability
(with CAPE values peaking at 400-600 J/jg). Behind the cold front,
a cold and unstable air mass associated with a cold upper level
low pressure system will bring scattered showers and a 10-20
percent chance of thunderstorms by Monday afternoon across the
Central Coast and by late Monday evening across LA county. A
smaller threat of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue into Tuesday, however rain intensities are expected
to be less as the system takes a more inland track.

The most likely outcome for storm total rainfall from late tonight
into Tuesday would be most areas receiving another 1 to 2 inches
of rain, except locally up to 3 inches across the Santa Ynez
range. Peak rain rates of 0.25-0.50 inches per hour will be
common, with isolated rates up to 0,80 inches per hour likely near
thunderstorms and S-SW facing foothills/coastal slopes(especially
in the Santa Ynez mountains and western Ventura mountains). Due
to the abundant rainfall during the past 48 hours, additional
expected rainfall will bring threats of minor roadway/small stream
flooding, additional rockslides/mudslides, and minor/shallow
debris flows in recent burn scars. There is a 20-30 percent chance
of reaching debris flow thresholds (15, 30, 60 minute durations)
in the recent burn scars. The wet grounds will also bring an
increased risk of downed trees during any convective bursts.
There is also the potential for isolated waterspouts.

Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet during the onset
of this next storm, but are expected to lower to between 5000 and
6000 feet by Monday night, and around 4500 feet on Tuesday. Snow
accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible for elevations above
6000 feet, with higher amounts above resort levels (above 8000
feet) likely. On Tuesday, there is a small chance of snow showers
reaching down to the Grapevine along I-5, but any accumulations
would likely be minimal. A winter weather advisory may need to be
considered for the higher mountains as we draw closer to the
event. Dry and mild conditions are then expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/233 PM.

Another system is expected to affect the state on Thursday and/or
Friday. There is still considerable disagreement on track and
speed of this system. While there is still considerable
uncertainty in the rain amounts, timing, and intensities, the
official forecast calls for 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on
Thursday and a 20 to 30 percent chance on Friday with additional
rainfall amounts most likely between a quarter inch and one inch.
This system is quite a few days away and is embedded in a fast
moving storm track, so it is very likely that the forecast will
change as the day draws nearer.

While the model forecasts have different synoptic patterns next
Saturday, almost all of the solutions are dry. Max temps should
warm, but will likely still remain a few degrees below normal

&&

.AVIATION...16/1656Z.

At around 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a
deep moist layer up to at least 10000 feet.

Low confidence in TAFs through 22Z and then fair confidence
through around 08Z Mon. Multiple SCT-BKN layers in the low MVFR,
high MVFR and low VFR categories will create variable cigs through
22Z along with a 25 percent chc of a shower.

Better confidence in TAFs aft 22Z with sct-bkn conds between 040
and 060. After 10Z Mon, showers and lower cigs will become likely
again, starting at northern sites first.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 22Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently between BKN015, BKN025 AND BKN035. There is a 25
percent chc of brief -SHRA. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8kt
east wind component through 20Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 22Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently between BKN015, BKN025 AND BKN035. There is a 25
percent chc of brief -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...16/235 PM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through early this evening, then
there is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA conditions
developing tonight through late Tuesday night. Winds and seas will
likely fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then
there is a moderate- to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA
conditions developing on Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through early Monday
morning, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance
of SCA conditions developing Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will likely fall
below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a
moderate-to- high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions
developing on Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters Monday and Monday night. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox