852
FXUS66 KLOX 190610
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1010 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/128 PM.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening.
Light snow accumulations are possible above 6000 feet. Generally
dry weather is expected Wednesday with cool temperatures. Another
storm will bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday morning.
Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Pockets of showers continue this afternoon as the upper low moves
overhead. Most of the showers have been on the lighter side but a
nearly stationary storm near Seacliff in western Ventura County
has dropped some very heavy rain likely impacting the 101 freeway
in that area. Otherwise, showers have been on the lighter side and
very scattered, though with still some afternoon heating left
there could be some additional heavier storms developing before
sunset.

Expecting a dry day Wednesday in most areas with maybe a 5-10%
chance of a stray shower in the LA mountains. Temperatures will
remain well below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the coast and valleys.

Another storm will move into the area Thursday. The trajectory for
this one is a little more inland but most of the models have it
cutting off near San Nicolas Island Friday morning which could
maintain shower chances at least through midday Friday before it
moves south of the MX border. Given the trajectory, it`s not
surprising that models are indicating higher amounts again south
of Pt Conception, generally in the half to one inch range, though
there are at least 25% of the solutions in the 1-2 inch range at
lower elevations.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...18/201 PM.

The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the
weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions
through the Thanksgiving holiday week.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0609Z.

At 05Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

There is a 10-20% chance of -SHRA on Wednesday for KWJF KPMD.

There is a chance of LIFR FG 10-16Z at KPRB (20%) KCMA (30%) KOXR
(20%) KVNY (30%) KBUR (20%) KPMD (10%) KWJF (30%).

Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions and abnormally light
winds.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions and any easterly winds
staying under 08 knots.

KBUR...There is a 20% chance of LIFR FG 10-16Z. Otherwise, high
confidence in VFR conditions and lighter than usual winds.

&&

.MARINE...18/1009 PM.

Seas across the northern Outer Waters have been slow to decrease,
with a few localized spots near 10 feet tonight. Expecting seas to
decrease into Thursday. Northwest winds should increase around
Point Conception and southward, with a 30% chance for Small Craft
Advisory level winds Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
Another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across
the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of
Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve
some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Winds will be
quite variable directionally as the storm moves to the south
through the region, but periods of 20-30 knot winds will be common
as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

For the southern Inner Waters, winds will increase for the Santa
Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening with gusts of 15-20 mph expected, and
there is a 30-40% chance for SCA level wind gusts. A low should
track through the coastal waters starting Thursday afternoon,
which will start bringing southerly and easterly winds to the
southern inner waters. There is a chance for nearshore northeast
to southeast winds to become strong (15-25 knots) between Ventura
Harbor to San Clemente Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of showers across the coastal
waters into early Wednesday morning south of the Channel Islands,
highest chances near Catalina Island. Any stronger showers that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and
erratic winds, locally rough seas, and a remote chance for a
waterspout.

&&

.BEACHES...18/120 PM.

A 12-15 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the
region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet
across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast
into the weekend, peaking Friday. Surf will approach the 6-8 foot
range in Ventura Friday.

High Surf Advisories are likely (80% chance) for the Central
coast, and there is a chance for Ventura (40%), and Los Angeles
(20%) counties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox