561
FXUS66 KLOX 161103
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
303 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/1245 AM.

Look for partly to mostly skies with a chance of showers today.
Afternoon highs will be well below normal. Another cooler system
will bring rain to most of the area Monday with showers continuing
into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain
with warmer temperatures. Another storms is slated to arrive next
Thursday and linger into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/303 AM.

An upper low currently over LA county will move to the NE this
morning. Currently the low is producing numerous showers in its SE
quadrant that are moving over the SE portion of LA county. Some of
these cells put out enough rainfall (.32 inches in 15 minutes)
over the bridge fire to create a high likelihood of flash
flooding. Some shower activity was also moving across southern VTA
county. Lighter wrap around showers were moving over the Central
Coast from the north.

There will be a marked decrease in shower activity over the next
few hours as the flow over the area transitions to entirely NNW.
This downsloping less dynamic flow pattern will not allow for much
shower development or enhancement. Most additional rain will fall
this morning and additional rainfall totals will mostly be under a
quarter inch with amounts up to a half inch possible over SLO
county where the wrap around will be strongest.

The clouds will not be as thick today and there will be some peaks
of sunshine, but the character of the day will be mostly cloudy.
Max temps will warm a couple of degrees but will only end up in
the lower 60s for most of the csts/vlys or 8 to 12 degrees blo
normal.

Another upper low with an associated cold front will move into nrn
CA later tonight. The front with its light rain will begin to move
into the Central Coast in the predawn hours Monday. The front will
sweep through forecast area during the day and will exit LA county
in the early evening. There will likely be a 3 or hour period of
rain with the front. This system is colder than the Fri/Sat storm
and has no sup tropical moisture tap so the rainfall totals and
intensities will be much less. Max rainfall rates will top out at
a half inch per hour with quarter inch per hour rates much more
common. Rainfall amounts will range from .75" to 1.5" with the
highest amounts along the south facing coastal slopes. Snow levels
will be above 7000 ft during the day over LA and VTA counties. The
colder system, clouds and rain will all team up to lower cst/vly
temps to within a couple degrees of 60.

Shower activity will continue overnight in the wake of the cold
front. Snow levels will drop to 5000 ft and a couple inches of
snow is possible above 6000 ft. Rainfall amounts will not be
homogeneous at all but some areas could see a third of an inch of
extra rainfall.

The upper low does not move much at all on Tuesday and will sit to
the north of Kern county and spin some weak disturbances over the
area. There will be 20 to 30 percent chc of shower through the day
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The best chc of showers will
be across the north slopes, while places that have downsloping
under north flow conditions (southern SBA county and southern VTA
county) will see much less showers and rain. Rainfall totals
should not add up to much. Hgts overhead will only be 550 dam and
max temps will struggle to even reach 60.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/106 AM.

All mdls and ensembles fcst a small ridge to ride over the area on
Wednesday. In quite the change of pace the day will be dry and
there will be sunshine. Hgts rise to 568 dam. Max temps will bump
up 2 to 4 degrees across the area. Even with the warming max temps
across the csts/vlys will only be in the lower to mid 60s or 8 to
12 degrees blo normal.

Another system is slated to affect the state on Thursday and/or
Friday. There is still considerable disagreement on track and
speed of this system. The GFS takes a slower more over water
trajectory while the EC is faster and more inside. The EC-AI mdl
has been performing the best over the last couple of weeks and it
shows rain starting early Thursday and lasting into the evening
with a dry Friday. It is forecasting a half inch to an inch of
rain. The official forecast based on the entire ensemble based
probabilistic spread, however, calls for a 40 to 50 percent chc
of rain on Thursday and a 20 to 30 percent chc on Friday with
rainfall amounts of a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch.
This system is quite a few days away and is embedded in a fast
moving storm track, so it is very likely that the forecast will
change as the day draws nearer.

While the mdls forecast wildly different synoptic patterns next
Saturday, almost all of the solutions are dry. Max temps should
warm, but will likely still remain a few degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0614Z.

At 0458Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep
moist layer up to at least 10000 feet.

Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but IFR and even brief LIFR values are possible. Fair
confidence that cigs after 20Z will be BKN-OVC040-060.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but BKN008 conds are possible as are BKN035 conds.
Better confidence in cig fcst after 20Z. Lower confidence in east
wind fcst with a 30 percent chc of an 8kt east wind component
through 16Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but BKN008 conds are possible as are BKN035 conds.
Better confidence in cig fcst after 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/732 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of SCA
level winds and seas. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Thursday, there is a 30-40%
chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through
Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of a combination of SCA level
winds and seas. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds with the highest chances across the Santa Barbara Channel.
For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters
south of Point Conception through tonight. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox