757
FXUS66 KLOX 020540
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1040 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/808 PM.

Temperatures will rise slightly through Sunday, before a cooling
trend begins Monday. Skies will be mostly clear through Tuesday
except for night through morning low clouds and fog across the
coasts and lower valleys. Dry conditions are expected until
Wednesday, when there could be rain along the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...01/753 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate widespread
stratus/fog across the coastal plain with clear skies elsewhere.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion around 1000 feet
in depth. No significant winds are observed.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Overnight, H5 heights fall slightly, so the
inversion should either deepen a bit or remain at the same depth.
So, clouds/fog should generally remain confined to the coastal
plain overnight, but some could squeak into the lower coastal
valleys. Otherwise, clear skies will continue through the
overnight hours.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Synoptically, the area is under a 588 dam upper-level ridge with
an axis running to the northeast into NV and ID. This feature
will retreat to the southeast and allow a trough from a 528 dam
Low in the Gulf of Alaska to extend down the California coast
beginning on Monday in NorCal. By Wednesday, the parent Low will
have deepened to around 520 dam and oriented to bring moisture
into the San Francisco Bay area. Some moisture may make it as far
South as SLO Co and even SBA Co`s central coast, but rain amounts
for us should remain less than 0.1". Thursday to next Saturday
will bring a pop-up ridge before another potentially wet system
arrives in Central California on Monday the 10th.

There is a weak upper-level ridge overhead today. Max temps will
rise across most areas today as the ridge and sunshine combine.
Today will probably be the warmest until next Friday.

Expecting a high-hgt, dry, upper low passage Sunday. The passage
should lift the marine layer and eliminate the threat of dense fog
and may bring a little better vly penetration. Most areas will
cool due to the lower hgts but the coasts may warm a degree or two
as there onshore push will be very weak. The nearshore area will
come in a few degrees blo normal but the vlys will end up 3 to 6
degrees over normal while the mtns and interior will soar to 8 to
12 degrees above normal.

On Monday there will be a transition to dry SW flow. At the
surface the E/W gradient will be weak all through Monday morning
increasing to moderate onshore Monday afternoon. Lower hgts and
the stronger afternoon push to the east will bring most areas 2 to
4 degrees of cooling. Look for mostly sunny skies save for the
morning marine layer clouds.

Tuesday could introduce some higher or mid level clouds in SLO
County as the trough dips further south. There may be a few more
degrees of cooling with the increased clouds and decreasing
heights.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...01/119 PM.

The southern end of a large trof originating in the Gulf of
Alaska will sweep through the state on Wednesday. The tail end of
an embedded cold front will pass through SLO and western SBA
counties. It will bring a 80 percent chc of rain to SLO Co and
taper down to about a 20 percent chance in SBA Co. Rainfall
amounts will be under a quarter inch and mostly under a tenth with
the usual exception of the extreme NW tip of SLO county which
could see more. It will be cloudy across SLO And SBA counties but
VTA and LA counties will likely see some sunshine with partly to
mostly cloudy conditions. Lowering hgts, better onshore flow and
the clouds will all gang up and lower temps by 3 to 6 degrees. The
csts and vlys will end up with highs only in the upper 60s and
70s.

Gusty north winds set up behind the front and this should chase
the low clouds away. Weak ridging pushes in from the west and hgts
will rise Thu through Sat. Look for three days of warming with
highs slightly above seasonal normal.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0539Z.

At 0445Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3000 feet with a temperature of 25 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For the remainder of TAFs: moderate confidence. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may last until 21Z.
IFR conds may return as early as 23Z. There is a 20 percent chc of
1/2SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-15Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of no
low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...01/755 PM.

Areas of dense fog with visibility under one mile will be a
concern through at least the weekend, especially during the night
through morning hours.

High confidence in the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds or
seas (10+ feet) off the Central Coast through Sunday night,
peaking and most expansive tonight. There is a 30% chance that
seas will remain at SCA levels over the northern outer waters
(PZZ670) through Monday morning. Seas will likely lower
significantly Monday and Tuesday, before building again for
midweek. Large tides (7+ feet) and swells (westerly 8-15 feet)
will bring a moderate risk of breaking waves at the Morro Bay and
Ventura Harbor Entrances Thursday and Friday, as well as moderate
coastal flooding.

Southeast winds will be prevalent south of Point Conception each
morning through at least the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/jld/RAT
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RK/KL/CC
SYNOPSIS...jld/cc

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox