101
FXUS66 KLOX 110544
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
944 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Updated Short Term, Marine, and Aviation Discussions

.SYNOPSIS...10/840 PM.

Onshore flow will replace offshore flow through midweek as a ridge
of high pressure moves east of the region. A shallow marine layer
depth will bring dense fog at times to the coast, possibly
reaching the valleys by Wednesday morning. A broad trough of low
pressure will approach the West Coast on Wednesday night and
bring rain, heavy at times through Thursday night or Friday. Drier
but cool weather is expected over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...10/932 PM.

Dirty ridging aloft remains in place across the region this
evening. High pressure is slowly breaking down over the region as
high clouds stream over the ridge. A cooling trend will develop
through midweek as cyclonic flow replaces anticyclonic flow aloft,
while at the surface, onshore flow replaces offshore flow. A
shallow marine layer depth is in place across the coastal areas
this evening, preluding a broader return of low clouds and fog to
the region through Wednesday. Strong high pressure aloft continues
to press down on the marine layer enough to keep it as shallow
layer near the surface. Low clouds and dense fog will be possible
for all coastal areas tonight and into Tuesday morning, which
likely will reach the western fringes of the Santa Ynez Valley and
maybe the San Gabriel Valley by daybreak. A dense fog advisory
was added for the Central Coast, the Ventura County coast, and the
southeastern portion of Santa Barbara County through 9 am
Tuesday, but there is a high chance that this advisory will need
to be expanded into the remaining coastal areas by Tuesday
morning.

Temperatures will cool by about 7-12 degrees away from the coast
on Veterans Day while remaining near persistence along the coast
as clouds could hug the coast on Tuesday afternoon. An earlier
update fixed temperatures across the Southland valleys to not
cool the area quite as much, but the beaches and immediate
coastal areas could end up being much cooler than what is forecast
if clouds hang in longer than forecast. The next shift will be
briefed about the potential for clouds hanging in along the
beaches.

***From Previous Discussion***

Onshore flow is expected to resume in all areas Tue and Wed
leading to 5-10 degrees of cooling each day across the inland
areas.

A moderate to strong storm with PW`s around 1.5" is expected to
move through the area Thursday. Could see some light precip as
early as Wednesday night along the Central Coast and a few post-
frontal showers Friday but 90% of the rainfall should take place
on Thursday. Most areas will experience around 6-8 hours of precip
with the front, 1-3 hours of which could be heavy with up to
0.75" per hour and a 20% chance of as much as an inch per hour.
The heaviest precip will be in the usual favored upslope areas,
including the Santa Lucia`s, the Santa Barbara mountains
(particularly the Santa Ynez Range) into the western Ventura
County mountains, the Santa Monica mountains, and the eastern San
Gabriel mountains. All of those areas will be at risk for heavy
rain and flooding. If models stay consistent it`s likely that a
Flood Watch will be issued for the most vulnerable areas,
including the most recent burn scars. Projected rain amounts
remains about the same with most coastal/valley areas falling into
the 1-2" range and foothills and south facing mountains in the
2-4" range. But would not be surprised to see a couple 5" totals
when all is said and done.

Not expecting any snow below 8000 feet with this system until the
very tail end of it when there could be a few inches between
6000-8000 feet.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...10/228 PM.

There is still some uncertainty with regard to how long showers
will continue following the main cold front on Thursday. The
latest ensembles place the trough right through LA County Friday
morning with northwest flow developing during the afternoon and
evening. There still could be some brief moderate to locally heavy
showers before the trough passage Friday morning but most of the
ensembles are indicating rain rates well below a half inch per
hour after 4am Friday.

Dry but cool weather is expected over the weekend. There remains a
small chance of a weak storm next Monday but recent model runs
have backed off that system.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0543Z.

At 0444Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 300 feet. The top of
the inversion was near 11 feet with a temperature of 28 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF and
KPMD. 10% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB from 12Z-17Z.

Low to moderate confidence in all coastal sites. Timing of flight
cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 30% chance KOXR
and KLAX do not clear Tuesday. Less than 1/2SM vsbys are observed
at some coastal sites, and there is a 50% chance at remaining
sites once clouds are present. Low confidence in return of low
clouds after 12/00Z.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may arrive anytime
between now and 10Z. 50% chance for vsbys less than 1/2SM when
cigs arrive. Clearing may be off by +/- 3 hours, but there is a
30% chance for no clearing. No significant east wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/844 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for most
of the waters, but winds may near SCA levels near Point Conception
at times. From Wednesday night through Saturday, high confidence
in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. On Thursday, there
will be a 20% chance of Gale force winds across PZZ670.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Wednesday night and Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds
with a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. Strongest winds look to affect the Central
Coast. For Friday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds
and seas. On Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday night,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Thursday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level southeast winds in
the morning and a 60-80% chance of SCA level west to northwest
winds in the afternoon. For Thursday night through Friday night,
high confidence in SCA level west to northwest winds with a 20-30%
chance of Gale force winds. On Saturday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels.

Dense fog will continue to be an issue for all the coastal waters
tonight and Tuesday morning. Visibilities of one nautical mile or
less are likely.

On Wednesday night and Thursday, there will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the coastal waters from the Santa Barbara
Channel northward. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable
of producing frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally
rough seas and even waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday
      for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      350-354-355. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Phillips/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox