980
FXUS66 KLOX 150453
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
853 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/758 PM.

An unusually strong storm system will bring widespread rain to the
area through Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall late tonight
through early Saturday afternoon. During the peak of the event
isolated strong thunderstorms will bring a moderate risk of
flash flooding, debris flows, and damaging winds. The stormy
pattern will continue and periods of rain are possible through
late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/849 PM.

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, DEBRIS
FLOWS, AND DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

***UPDATE***

The storm has shifted into the 2nd phase as this morning`s cold
front has exited the area. Phase 2 involves an upper low that is
currently 300 miles to the SW of KLAX. A low level jet riding up
the east side of the has added plenty of energy and has even
produced a baroclinic leaf. PWs in this plume of mositure are near
1.4 inches (about 1 inch anomaly). This will bring steady lgt-mdt
rain to most of LA/VTA county this evening and into the overnight
hours.

All eyes on the period from approximately 400am to noon Saturday
with a strong compact vort lobe moves into the area. This vort
lobe will kick the storm up an notch and the rain will become
moderate with pockets of heavy rain. There will be enough lift and
instability to bring a chc of TSTMs. While there is enough twist
in the lower atmosphere to allow any TSTM that forms to produce
severe weather or even a weak tornado, the real threat will be the
rainfall rates which will be close to 1 inch per hour. These
rainfall rates on top of the already saturated grounds will could
well produce flash flooding anywhere. The recent burn areas, of
course, will be most vulnerable to flash flooding and debris
flows. A flash flood watch is in effect for all of the area.

This is a dangerous situation and all residents of LA/VTA and
eastern SBA counties are urged to monitor this storm closely and
follow the directions of all emergency personnel.

***From Previous Discussion***

There will be a very noticeable break in the steady widespread
nature of the rain Saturday Night, but scattered off and on again
light to moderate showers will remain over the area through
Sunday. The highest chances are over eastern Los Angeles County
and northern SLO County Saturday Night, then really anywhere on
Sunday. Any additional impacts will be minor.

The break will be brief as the next storm will start to impact the
area Sunday Night, first over San Luis Obispo County then pushing
south into Los Angeles County on Monday. After a cold front brings
light to moderate rain with minor impacts, there is a good chance
for the core of the system to move through the area Monday Night
and Tuesday keeping showers going and possibly bringing some snow
levels down to 5,000 feet. The BIG different between this storm
and our current storm is that the Tuesday system will not cut off
but will remain plugged into the jet. This means it will move
through fairly quickly which means rain amounts and impacts will
be on the lower end.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/206 PM.

There should be a break in the rain on Wednesday, but yet another
storm will be in the window Wednesday through Friday. This one
carries much more uncertainity that Monday`s storm, as really
anything is on the table between no rain and a lot of rain.
Cooler than normal conditions will remain.

&&

.AVIATION...14/2351Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. High confidence in
periods of rain for all sites through the period, but low
confidence in timing of flight category changes (and the flight
categories themselves). CIGs and VSBYs will vary from VFR levels
down to IFR through the period.

There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms for TAF sites south of
Point Conception thru the fcst period. Any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and
gusty/erratic outflow winds.

KLAX...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.
Through 11Z...there is a 50-60% chance of easterly winds above 8
knots...then a 60-80% chance of easterly winds above 10 knots
11Z-17Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...14/735 PM.

There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters south of Point Conception through Saturday night. Any
thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief
heavy rain, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and
erratic winds, locally rough seas and possible waterspouts.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Saturday afternoon, high confidence in
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas and a 30% chance of SCA
level winds, mainly in the southernmost outer waters. From
Saturday afternoon through Sunday, moderate to high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and
Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level seas with a 30-40% chance of
SCA level winds. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in SCA level seas through Saturday afternoon. For
Saturday afternoon through Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, high
confidence in SCA level seas with a 30-40% chance of SCA level
winds on Monday. For Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Moderate confidence in SCA level
southeast winds tonight and Saturday morning across PZZ655, and
SCA level seas across the western Santa Barbara Channel. For
Saturday afternoon through Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across all the southern Inner Waters.
For Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.BEACHES...14/1248 PM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring
hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California
today through at least Saturday morning. In addition to the
west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty southerly
winds which will add a southerly wind swell component to the surf.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central Coast and
the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX and
LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed
for the LA county beaches today and tonight.

Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across
all the beaches at times from late this afternoon through
Saturday night. Any thunderstorms that form will be capable of
producing locally strong winds, small hail, dangerous lightning,
heavy rainfall, and possibly even a weak/brief tornado.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch now in effect from 1 AM PST Saturday through
      Saturday evening for zones
      87-88-346>358-362-366>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell/Rorke
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...RAT/CMC
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox