578
FXUS66 KLOX 220018
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
418 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...21/1258 PM.

Scattered light showers are possible today into early Saturday in
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, mainly in the mountains, along
with gusty east winds. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the
weekend and lasting through at least Thanksgiving. High
temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/133 PM.

Southern California is still being influenced by a strong upper
low that continues to drift south into Mexican waters. As a result
of this movement, the winds aloft have shifted from south to
northeast, creating a Santa Ana wind event that will increase in
strength tonight and Saturday across portions of LA and Ventura
Counties. While there is still some moisture around, the shift to
a Santa Ana pattern means that downsloping winds off the mountains
and into the valleys and coastal areas will lessen the chances for
any additional rainfall at lower elevations. However, in the
mountains and even the Antelope Valley scattered showers are
possible into at least early Saturday morning with show above 6000
feet. Showers are expected to be light with minimal if any
impacts. The other impact from the Santa Ana pattern will be
warming temperatures Saturday by 4-8 degrees from today.

Light onshore flow will be returning to the area Sunday and
Monday that will cool off the coastal areas slightly but most
valleys will notice little change. With the shift to onshore flow
there is at least a small chance of some marine layer stratus
developing but forecast soundings currently are not very favorable
for that. Otherwise, skies expected to be mostly clear Sunday and
Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/202 PM.

The rest of Thanksgiving week is expected to be mild or even
slightly above normal as pressure gradients shift back to
offshore by 2-5mb based on the latest ensemble gradient charts.
Thanksgiving Day is expected to be sunny with highs around 70 near
the coast and approaching 80 in some of the warmer valleys in
LA/Ventura Counties.

Looking ahead models are still indicating the next weather system
to move into the area later next weekend. Earlier model runs had
been favoring another potential strong system but more recent
solutions have trended more towards an inside slider pattern as
the 12z GFS/EC models are showing. At the very least temperatures
will trend cooler next weekend, but at this point confidence in
any one model run is very low.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0018Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 10-20% chance for showers
through the period, best chances for Los Angeles County through
18Z. Mostly VFR conds, but brief period of MVFR cigs are possible.
Low confidence, but there is a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR
cigs and vsbys at KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY between 08Z and 18Z as
radiation fog may develop overnight. East winds will continue at
many sites through the period.

Moderate LLWS and turbulence likely through the period, especially
over mountainous terrain over Ventura and Los Angeles County.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through
the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Lower
confidence in winds as models have trended lighter in terms of
magnitude of east winds through the period. There is a 40% chance
for an east wind component of 8 kt through 19Z. Most likely time
frame is through 07Z, then 13Z-19Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through
the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Wind speeds
may suddenly increase and decrease at times overnight. 10-20%
chance for VLIFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys from 10Z to 18Z as
radiation fog may develop overnight.

&&

.MARINE...21/233 PM.

Low confidence in forecast, especially regarding winds. It is
best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions
improve this weekend.

A storm system is stalled inside the Southern California Bight. It
will bring periods of gusty winds, a large west-northwest swell
(especially for the Outer Waters), rain, and a chance for isolated
thunderstorms to the waters today.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
affect most of the coastal waters through much of the weekend.
Look for seas of 10-15 feet across the Outer Waters and the
nearshore Central Coast Waters, and 4 to 8 feet inside the
Southern California Bight (highest in the Santa Barbara Channel).
Wind directions will vary considerably through the course of the
storm which will will result in rough, confused seas, especially
south of Point Conception.

NE winds will prevail through Saturday morning as nearly
stationary storm system spins inside the Southern California
Bight. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica (20-30
knots), but NE winds gusting up to 25 knots will occur nearshore
from Palos Verdes south through Orange County. NE winds may reach
the Channel Islands with much lower chances for Catalina Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox