147
FXUS66 KLOX 041827
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1027 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/227 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds
to portions of southern California today. Cold conditions will
bring freezing conditions to some areas each morning today and Friday.
A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/853 AM.

***UPDATE***

The Santa Ana Winds have been performing better this morning
compared to yesterday as expected. Advisory level wind gusts have
been observed across typically windy areas this morning, with the
Santa Susanas and Western San Gabriels winning this event. A
couple gusts even reached 60 mph in these areas. Winds will
strengthen and expand especially across coastal and valley areas
this morning, then winds are on track to decrease by this
afternoon. A few advisory level gusts may linger in the mountain
areas a little later. Then slightly more northerly and much
weaker winds will likely impact the Western San Gabriel, Santa
Susana, and Santa Monica mountains late tonight into Friday
morning. Gusts will generally be in the 30 to 40 mph range, with
local gusts to 45 mph. 20 to 30 mph winds will likely surface
across Malibu to western Santa Monica at times tonight into Friday
morning.

Widespread lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s were observed across
interior areas this morning, and another chilly night is on tap.
Most coasts and valleys south of Point Conception will cool
slightly due to the decrease in offshore winds tonight, while
interior areas will warm a couple degrees. The only exception to
the coasts would be Malibu, where downsloping northerly winds
overnight will likely keep overnight lows a bit more elevated.

***From Previous Discussion***

A low end Santa Ana wind event is just starting. Currently the
offshore gradients are between 3 and 4 mb offshore and will peak
between 4 and 6 mb later this morning. There is a little upper
level support along with a little cool air advection to help the
winds along. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will develop in the
Santa Ana wind corridor (10 miles or so around a line from the
Santa Clarita vly to the western Santa Monicas). There will be
isolated gusts to 55 mph along the windiest mountain ridges.

Away from the winds, the cool and dry airmass along with clear
skies will allow for rapid cooling and freeze warnings are in
effect for the far interior including the Antelope Vly. A Frost
advisory is in place for the Cuyama Vly and the Antelope Vly
foothills.

The offshore flow will warm most areas 1 to 3 degrees. The Central
Coast will be the exception where 4 to 5 degrees of warming will
occur. The Antelope Vly will cool some as cool air advects in from
the high desert. Most max temps will come in near normal today.

It will be cold again in the wind sheltered locations tonight and
a freeze watch is in effect for the same areas under a warning
this morning.

Not too much to talk about for the Friday and Saturday forecasts.
An upper high will nose in from the west and hgts will push up to
582 dam. The offshore flow will continue, but will be weaker than
today, and this will keep the low clouds away. There will be some
gusty canyon winds in the morning, but with no upper support and
weaker gradients they will not reach advisory levels. The
weakening offshore flow will bring two days of cooling to most of
the csts and lower vlys while the rest of the area warms under
sunny skies and rising hgts. By Saturday the mtns and interior
will will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The nearshore area,
however, will be a degree or two under normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/303 AM.

Good agreement with all medium range mdls and ensembles. Ridging
is forecast to persist over the area. Hgts will increase to at
least 586 dam by mid week.

Offshore flow will persist through the period and should eliminate
or at least greatly minimize the low cloud coverage. The Long
Beach area and western SBA county stand the greatest chc of seeing
some morning low clouds. The offshore flow will not be strong
enough to generate any advisory level winds.

That leaves the temperatures, which will be the main talking point
for the xtnd forecast. It looks like there will be three days of
warming everywhere with just a little nearshore cooling Wednesday
as the offshore flow weakens some. Went above guidance for the Tu
and Wed temps as usually the blended algorithms are slow to catch
on to events that are well out of the norm.

Right now it looks like there will be 2 to 4 degrees of warming
each day except Tuesday and for the coastal cooling Wednesday.
Tuesday should see 3 to 6 degrees of warming. Max temps Tue and
Wed will end up 10 to 15 locally 20 degrees over normal. Vly temps
will be in the 80s and there is an outside shot of isolated 90 or
91 degree readings.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1827Z.

At 1801Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in the current forecast, except low-to-moderate
confidence for KPRB. There is a 40% chance that conditions will
remain MVFR or VFR tonight at KPRB.

Periods of moderate low- level wind shear are possible through
20Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of east
wind component between 6-8 kt from 05Z-14Z Fri.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...04/854 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher
confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds.

At east-facing harbors, including Avalon Harbor on Catalina
Island and Smugglers Cove on Santa Cruz Island, there is a 40-50
percent chance of east winds affecting these harbors today.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the
southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Friday morning, then
there is a high-to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level
winds between Friday afternoon through Sunday. There is a
moderate chance of SCA level winds lingering into Monday afternoon
and evening.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a high-
to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of gusty northeast to east
winds this morning, highest between Rincon Point to Santa Monica
and into the San Pedro Channel. Winds and seas should drop below
SCA levels this afternoon, but there is a moderate-to-high (30 to
50 percent) chance of SCA level winds redeveloping again tonight
through Friday morning. Winds and seas will likely remain below
SCA levels through the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday
      morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Lewis
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox