862
FXUS66 KLOX 040604
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1004 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/523 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures is expected to
prevail through Thursday. However, light rain or drizzle is
possible Wednesday morning. Warming and drying trends with breezy
north winds are expected Thursday through Saturday. Widespread
unsettled wet weather may return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...03/1003 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures remained quite cool at the coasts with plenty of
lingering marine layer clouds, but the deserts and remaining
interior warmed to around 8 degrees above normal with high
pressure and mostly clear skies through the day. Clouds and patchy
fog has returned to the northern coasts and coastal valleys this
evening, and should eventually reach the Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties coasts and coastal valleys. Not seeing much of a shift in
the synoptic pattern for Tuesday with prevailing westerly upper
level flow, and ongoing marine layer clouds expected but a cold
front will graze San Luis Obispo County early Wednesday, leading
to a chance for some light rain for the western Santa Barbara
County coast and northwest portions of San Luis Obispo County.
Rain chances may need to be moved to as early as Tuesday night,
otherwise the current forecast looks on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little to talk about through Wednesday. Dry SW flow will be
over the area and there will be weak diurnally driven flow at the
sfc. Night through morning low clouds and fog will affect the csts
and the lower vlys each day. The low clouds will be a little
stubborn to clear as the capping inversion is stronger than usual
for this time of year. Skies otherwise will be mostly clear with
some ocnl cirrus drifting overhead. Stronger onshore flow and
lowering hgts will 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to most areas,
although the VTA/LA county coasts will not change much due to the
strong marine layer presence ydy. Another 1 or 2 degrees of
cooling is likely on Tuesday as the atmosphere cools a little
more.

On Wednesday, a trof emanating from a deep Gulf of Alaska low
will sweep across the state. The tail end of an embedded cold
front will pass through SLO/SBA counties. There is an 80 percent
chc of rain for NW SLO county tapering down to about 20 percent
for the western portion of the SBA county south cst. The best chc
of rain will be later in the morning and early afternoon. The chc
of rain will end in the evening. The city of SBA and LA/VTA
counties should remain dry. Rainfall amounts will be under a
quarter inch, mostly under a tenth, with the usual exception of
the extreme NW tip of SLO county which will likely see more.
Rainfall rates will not pose any threats.

Areas of south of Pt Conception will see plenty of clouds and
maybe some drizzle as the marine layer is lifted. Wednesday will
be the coolest day of the next 7 with lowering hgts, better
onshore flow, and cloudy conditions all combining to lower temps
by 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees. The coasts and valleys will end up
with highs only in the upper 60s and 70s.

Gusty (but sub-advisory) north winds will set up behind the
front. The windiest areas will be the SBA south coast and the I-5
corridor Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...03/151 PM.

Dry and warmer weather with set up on Thursday and then continue
into Saturday as ridging and offshore flow sets up. 5 to 6 mb of
offshore flow from the north is possible on Fri and Sat mornings
and this could produce some advisory level gusts through the I-5
cooridor and SBA south coast. There is only weak offshore flow
from the east so it is not a Santa Ana set up. The offshore flow
will keep the low clouds away and skies will be mostly clear
through the period. Look for 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of warming
both Thu and Fri with an additional 1 or 2 degrees slated for Sat.
Saturdays temps across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s across the
csts and lower to mid 80s in the vlys. These max temps are 3 to 6
degrees above normal.

Look for weaker offshore flow Sunday and lowering hgts as the
ridge is pushed off to the east. Marine layer stratus will likely
form across some coastal areas. Max temps will respond with 2 to 4
degrees of cooling.

An unsettled wet pattern may set up next week with moderate
confidence in the potential for at least light to moderate rain
at some point, with slightly higher chances in the Wednesday
through Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0555Z.

At 0504Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be of +/- 2 hours & flight minimums by one cat.
30% chance of 1/4SM FG at KSMX from through 15Z Tue.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. Arrival & departure of
CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind component
expected through fcst pd.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. 15% chc of
VLIFR Conditions