048
FXUS66 KLOX 072059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1259 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/1212 AM.

Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a small
chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast.
A significant warming trend will begin today with temperatures
well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday
through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday,
and are expected to persist through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/1258 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, a ridge, centered over the Eastern
Pacific, will gradually strengthen over the area. At the surface,
weak to moderate offshore gradients will prevail.

Forecast-wise, two main issues will be winds and temperatures.
With respect to winds, the offshore pressure gradients will help
generate some Santa Ana winds across Ventura/LA counties and
weaker northeasterly winds across San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara counties. Gradients look to peak in strength on Tuesday
morning, but throughout the short term period, the upper level
support remains limited. So, do not anticipate any widespread
advisory level winds through Monday, but a 30-40% chance of some
advisories being needed on Tuesday morning (based on latest high
resolution ensemble data). Future shifts will need to monitor this
potential for Tuesday.

As for temperatures, the combination of the upper level ridge
strengthening and the offshore surface pressure gradients, a nice
warming trend is expected. By Tuesday and Wednesday, most areas
will be 10-15 degrees above normal with widespread 80+ degree
temperatures across the valleys and inland coastal plain. No
record-breaking temperatures are expected, but it will be rather
warm. As for overnight lows, it will be chilly in wind sheltered
areas.

Finally with respect to clouds, there is a 20-30% chance of some
stratus/fog tonight/Monday across the LA coastal plain. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies are expected for the area through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/1258 PM.

Overall, the 12Z models have the same broad idea, but differ in
the details. However, the differences will have minimal impact on
the overall sensible weather.

Through the period, the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken.
At the surface, the offshore flow will weaken with weak diurnal
flow expected by the weekend. So, will anticipate a slight and
gradual cool down through the period with a decrease in
northeasterly winds. By the weekend, there is a decent chance
that the marine layer stratus/fog will return to the coastal
plain. Overall, just rather benign weather through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1936Z.

At 1822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

Moderate to high confidence in KSBA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB
after 03Z Monday, otherwise high confidence for all TAFs. There
is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period at
KLAX. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conds at the
specified aforementioned sites, with conds potentially arriving as
early as 03Z Mon for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB and around 09Z for KOXR
and KSBA.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds
persisting through the period, otherwise LIFR-IFR conds could
arrive as early as 03Z Mon. Any easterly winds will remain less
than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/1113 AM.

For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially
across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz
Island during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters including the southern California bight and
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50%
of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa
Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each
night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccurring
on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA
levels.

There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters
through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and
coverage.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Black/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox