


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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281 FXUS66 KLOX 160205 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 705 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...15/121 PM. A light Santa Ana pattern will develop Thursday and Friday that will bring much warmer temperatures and some locally breezy northeast winds. Dry weather will continue into next week but with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/149 PM. Dry weather has returned to southern California but the colder air from the storm is still around as highs today are 5-15 degrees below normal. That will be changing quickly over the next couple days as the first Santa Ana event of the fall will develop tomorrow and peak on Friday. Will actually have some gusty north winds tonight across southwest Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor, some of which will spill down into the western LA valleys, Santa Monica mountains, and the Santa Monica Bay. Not expecting advisory level winds but could get some gusts to near 40mph in the mountains. Then on Thursday as the winds aloft start to pick up an easterly component the strongest winds will be over the Santa Lucia Range with gusts well into the 30s. With the shift to northeast highs Thursday will warm up 5-10 degrees over today`s temps. By Friday morning the Santa Ana winds will peak across the coast and valleys of Ventura and LA Counties and the LA mountains with wind gusts topping out around 40 mph in the mountains and 20-30 mph at lower elevations based on the 90th percentile wind forecasts from the CAMs. So mainly a sub-advisory level event at this time as gradients to the east peak at just over 3mb and winds aloft are mostly under 35mph, but will monitor the upcoming model runs to see if there is an unexpected trend towards a stronger event. Temperatures will peak Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 70s and 80s for most areas, but a little cooler across the far interior and mountains. There will be some lingering offshore breezes Saturday morning but at least 50% lighter than Friday. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/209 PM. Models are indicating an inside trough passage through the Great Basin Monday while at the same time an upper low about 500 miles southwest of LAX moves slowly towards California. At present the models are not favoring a return to offshore flow despite the trough moving through the Great Basin, though there are a few ensemble solutions showing some gusty winds around 40 mph in the mountains and across some of the valleys. Not very good consensus overall which is not surprising with the slow moving upper low nearby so expect some deviations to the forecast as we get closer. So far none of the ensemble solutions are indicating any rain next week so confidence in a dry forecast remains high, as well as with the cooling trend Sunday and Monday due to the transition from offshore back to onshore flow. Will likely see a return of the marine layer around this time as well. Decreasing confidence in the details beyond that but 80% chance of dry weather through the middle of next week with additional cooling. && .AVIATION...16/0200Z. Around 2153Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. High confidence in TAFs, except moderate confidence in winds at KVNY and KBUR. Winds may gust to 15 kts from the north at KVNY through late tonight, and winds may shift direction between 180 to 360 deg at times through late tonight. There is also a 20% chance for NE winds up to 20 kts to surface at KSBP late tonight into tomorrow morning. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a good chance east wind component from 08Z to 12Z, and a 40% chance for winds to reach 10 kts. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR conds, but lower confidence in winds. High confidence in max winds remaining below 15 kts, but winds may shift direction between 180 deg and 360 deg rapidly through late tonight. && .MARINE...15/146 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds (20-30 knots) are likely for the outer waters from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island through at least late Thursday night. Winds will likely reach SCA levels Thursday afternoon through late Friday night across the waters nearshore along the Central Coast and out to 60 NM from shore. Localized NE winds of 20-25 knots may surface between Morro Bay and Vandenberg SFB late Thursday into Friday morning. Winds are then expected to remain relatively light this weekend. SCA level NW winds will continue through this evening across the Santa Barbara Channel, with a 30% chance of reaching nearshore portions. Otherwise, winds will generally remain sub advisory across the Southern California Bight through the weekend with a couple of localized exceptions. Northerly winds of 10-20 knots will occur tonight into early Thursday morning between Point Dume and Santa Monica and into the Santa Monica Bay, with strongest winds focused at the immediate coast. Then late Thursday through Friday morning a light to moderate Santa Ana wind event will create NE winds of 15-25 kts between the Channel Islands Harbor and Malibu and into the Anacapa Passage, with strongest winds focused nearshore. Seas are expected to remain between 6 and 9 feet across the Outer Waters through the weekend before increasing to 10 to 14 feet early next week. Elsewhere, seas will remain relatively small. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Phillips/Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox