195
FXUS66 KLOX 012020
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
120 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/1257 PM.

Temperatures will rise slightly this weekend as high pressure
rebuilds before a cooling trend begins Monday. Skies will be
mostly clear through Tuesday except for night through morning low
clouds and fog across the coasts and lower valleys. Dry
conditions are expected until Wednesday, when there could be rain
along the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...01/114 PM.

Synoptically, the area is under a 588 dam upper-level ridge with
an axis running to the northeast into NV and ID. This feature
will retreat to the southeast and allow a trough from a 528 dam
Low in the Gulf of Alaska to extend down the California coast
beginning on Monday in NorCal. By Wednesday, the parent Low will
have deepened to around 520 dam and oriented to bring moisture
into the San Francisco Bay area. Some moisture may make it as far
South as SLO Co and even SBA Co`s central coast, but rain amounts
for us should remain less than 0.1". Thursday to next Saturday
will bring a pop-up ridge before another potentially wet system
arrives in Central California on Monday the 10th.

There is a weak upper-level ridge overhead today. Max temps will
rise across most areas today as the ridge and sunshine combine.
Today will probably be the warmest until next Friday.

Expecting a high-hgt, dry, upper low passage Sunday. The passage
should lift the marine layer and eliminate the threat of dense fog
and may bring a little better vly penetration. Most areas will
cool due to the lower hgts but the coasts may warm a degree or two
as there onshore push will be very weak. The nearshore area will
come in a few degrees blo normal but the vlys will end up 3 to 6
degrees over normal while the mtns and interior will soar to 8 to
12 degrees above normal.

On Monday there will be a transition to dry SW flow. At the
surface the E/W gradient will be weak all through Monday morning
increasing to moderate onshore Monday afternoon. Lower hgts and
the stronger afternoon push to the east will bring most areas 2 to
4 degrees of cooling. Look for mostly sunny skies save for the
morning marine layer clouds.

Tuesday could introduce some higher or mid level clouds in SLO
County as the trough dips further south. There may be a few more
degrees of cooling with the increased clouds and decreasing
heights.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...01/119 PM.

The southern end of a large trof originating in the Gulf of
Alaska will sweep through the state on Wednesday. The tail end of
an embedded cold front will pass through SLO and western SBA
counties. It will bring a 80 percent chc of rain to SLO Co and
taper down to about a 20 percent chance in SBA Co. Rainfall
amounts will be under a quarter inch and mostly under a tenth with
the usual exception of the extreme NW tip of SLO county which
could see more. It will be cloudy across SLO And SBA counties but
VTA and LA counties will likely see some sunshine with partly to
mostly cloudy conditions. Lowering hgts, better onshore flow and
the clouds will all gang up and lower temps by 3 to 6 degrees. The
csts and vlys will end up with highs only in the upper 60s and
70s.

Gusty north winds set up behind the front and this should chase
the low clouds away. Weak ridging pushes in from the west and hgts
will rise Thu through Sat. Look for three days of warming with
highs slightly above seasonal normal.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1821Z.

At 1759Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 ft with a temperature of 24 Celsius.

High confidence in weaker than normal winds at all airports.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD.
Moderate confidence in all other TAFs. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of
VLIFR/LIFR conds at KBUR and KVNY 07Z-17Z Sun. Moderate
confidence in very similar timing and flight categories Saturday
Night/Sunday morning as last night/this morning.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east
wind component will be under 6 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance
of BKN003-006 07-16Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...01/853 AM.

Areas of dense fog with visibility under one mile will be a
concern through at least the weekend, especially during night
through morning hours.

High confidence in the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds or
seas (10+ feet) off the Central Coast through Monday, peaking and
most expansive tonight. Seas likely lowering significantly Monday
and Tuesday, before building again. Large tides (7+ feet) and
swells (westerly 8-15 feet) will bring a moderate risk of breaking
waves at Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor Entrances Thursday and
Friday, as well as moderate coastal flooding.

Southeast winds will be prevalent south of Point Conception each
morning through at least the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/jld
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...RK/KL
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox